- China is fast developing its naval and war capabilities
to engage in a major war in Asia with the purpose of taking Taiwan by the
fall of 2002. Two respected analysts report that shipments of advanced
Russian military equipment will be delivered and in place by late next
year. The experts believe China's plans have already put it on a confrontation
course with its neighbors, and a collision course with the U.S.
-
- What has happened during the last two weeks has surprised
many experts, let alone persons having limited knowledge about China. The
first question: How did it happen?
-
- The incident involving the U.S. EP-3 did not happen in
a vacuum, but was instead one incident in a spate of aggressive moves by
the Chinese military.
-
- During 2000 and the first months of 2001, China was steadily
increasing its military presence in the airspace and waters between the
mainland coast and the First Island Chain, formed by Japan, Taiwan and
the Philippines.
-
- The goal of this activity is to push out all other countries'
forces - significantly the U.S. Air Force and Navy - and to establish unlimited
Chinese control in this strategically and economically important zone.
-
- This, by the way, would facilitate China's People's Liberation
Army air force (PLAAF) and navy (PLAN) actions in a forthcoming conflict
around Taiwan.
-
- The Japanese navy and Philippines navy, indeed, have
physically felt the drastic rise of PLAN pressure in the East China Sea
and South China Sea, respectively, over the last few months.
-
- So, direct collision of Chinese and U.S. forces at some
moment was unavoidable.
-
- A U.S. Navy vessel managed to escape a collision with
a PLAN frigate on= March 24, but another collision between a Chinese fighter
and a U.S. reconnaissance plane did occur.
-
- The second, probably more important question: Why have
the Chinese been conducting such bold maneuvers against the U.S. and others?
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- Indeed, the Chinese side behaved in a surprisingly bold
manner during the months preceding the collision, during the collision
itself, and in the showdown with the U.S. administration after the incident.
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- There are two major reasons for China's increasing belligerence:
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- 1) China has a mighty strategic rear, i.e., Russia, whose
leaders firmly support any PLA action aimed at expansion and confrontation
with the U.S.
-
- In July of this year, China and Russia intend to sign
a Treaty on Friendship and Cooperation, and will formalize their strategic
military alliance. In fact, this new military axis between Beijing and
Moscow has been in de facto existence since about mid-1999.
-
- The new treaty prescribes, among other items, "joint
resistance to the aggression against either of the two sides."
-
- This particularly means unconditional support of China
by the Russian side with all resources available in the case of a Sino-U.S.
military= conflict.
-
- Such a position of the Russian side was confirmed in
a telephone call= between Jiang Zemin and Putin in mid-January this year.
-
- Talks between these two supreme leaders takes place on
a regular basis after their summit in July 2000.
-
- The strongly negative attitude of the Kremlin to the
U.S., especially toward the present U.S. administration, gives Chinese
leaders "unshakable confidence" in Russian support.
-
- 2) PLA combat potential has increased very significantly
during the last two years, and Russian military-technological assistance
was the decisive factor here. Particularly:
-
- a) It is common knowledge among analysts that China's
PLAAF and PLAN= aviation received hundreds, not "several dozen,"
of Russia's modern fighters and bombers.
-
- By early April 2001, the PLA finished, or almost finished,
staffing three fighter divisions with SU-series fighters.
-
- Each division includes up to 72 Chinese-made and Russian-made
SU-27 SK, SU-27 UB, and/or SU-30 MKK fighters.
-
- This was achieved due to the work in the "prewar
period regime" of key aircraft industry enterprises in China and Russia
during the last 12-18 months. In addition, the PLA now has at least four
divisions staffed with drastically upgraded - based on Russian technology
- J-8 II-M fighters.
-
- Though each fighter of this kind is still inferior to
an F-16 fighter, two= of them are capable of downing one F-16.
-
- Upgrading of several hundred J-7 fighters also adds to
PLAAF potential.
-
- All the fighters are equipped with Russian-made or Russian-technology-based
air-to-air missiles (AAMs) and air-to-ground missiles (AGMs).
-
- b) By April 2001, the PLA deployed in the coastal zone
from Beijing to Hong Kong a theater missile defense (TMD) network, including
the following Russian air-defense missile (ADM) systems:
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- * up to 30 systems (battalions) of S-300 ADMs (12 ADM
launchers, capable of simultaneously launching 48 ADMs, in one battalion)
with a range up to 150 km and altitude up to 35 km;
-
- * at least 100 systems (companies) of Tor-M1 ADMs (4
ADM launchers, capable of simultaneously launching 8 ADMs, in one company)
with range up to 40km and altitude up to 12 km;
-
- * hundreds of Qianwei (QW)-2 missile-artillery air-defense
systems, copied from Russia's Tunguska system technology.
-
- Together with thousands of Chinese-made ADM systems of
various kinds and many thousand air-defense artillery units, this makes
a strong-enough TMD network, capable of effectively opposing massive air
strikes "of Kosovo war scale", including land-attack cruise missile
(LACM) strikes.
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- By early 2001, China, utilizing advanced Russian technology,
began serial production of comparatively advanced ground-based LACMs: the
Changfeng (CF)-1, CF-2, HongNiao (HN)-1, and HN-2 with a range between
400 km and 1,800 km, with conventional and nuclear warheads.
-
- By preliminary data, several brigades of the PLA 2nd
Artillery (Strategic Nuclear Forces) are staffed with these LACMs.
-
- Simultaneously, China started production of the HN-3
3,000-km-range= strategic LACM, capable of both ground-based deployment
and of installation on old H-6 bombers and the new-generation HJ-7/FBC-1
bombers.
-
- The number of such bombers in the PLA inventory now exceeds
100.
-
- The offensive potential of these LACMs, aimed at Taiwan
as well as U.S. Army facilities in Japan and South Korea, by April 2001,
probably surpassed that of several hundred short-range ballistic missiles
(SRBMs) deployed around Taiwan.
-
- Also, in 1999-2000, the PLA received a significant quantity
of DF-21 IRBMs with a range of 2,000 km to 2,900 km, a certain number of
new-generation DF-31 ICBMs, and a greater number of MIRVed warheads for
earlier installed DF-5 ICBMs.
-
- By April 2001, the PLA definitely had acquired a very
substantial missile-strike potential, especially in regard to short- to
mid-range missiles.
-
- d) PLAN modernization, though only half-completed, has
realized great progress, mostly on the basis of Russian aid.
-
- This mainly includes the following:
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- * Obtaining several Sovremennyy-class destroyers and
Kilo-class submarines.
-
- * Re-equipping PLAN frigates and destroyers with very
advanced Russian-made supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs), probably
of the Moskit (Sunburn) and/or Yakhont types. This work began in November
2000.
-
- Most importantly, Jiang Zemin received an assurance from
Putin that in case of a serious crisis around Taiwan, or any other crisis
related to direct conflict between Chinese and U.S. forces a significant
part of the Russian Pacific Fleet will "block the way of the U.S.
Navy."
-
- Only the most important directions of PLA modernization
are listed above, but there is no doubt that PLA combat potential rose
to a new level between mid-1999 and April 2000.
-
- And this gives "unlimited boldness" to China's
top leaders.
-
- U.S. policymakers can no longer ignore China's emergence,
with the help of Russia, as a major Asian military power capable of projecting
power well beyong her borders.
-
- The Chinese and PLA almost certainly will not risk direct
confrontation before about autumn 2002. China, based on Russian aid, will
accomplish between April 2001 and Autumn 2002 an additional "great
leap forward" in several key areas of PLA construction, such as staffing
several new fighter divisions with SU-27/SU-30 and J-10 4th-generation
fighters, at least doubling the number of advanced ADM systems in the East
China TMD network, deploying several hundred more ballistic missiles and
LACMs of all ranges, and upgrading PLAN to the maximum possible degree.
-
- According to available data, it is our opinion that in
the second half of 2002 the PLA will undertake an action against Taiwan,
which means unavoidable U.S. involvement. Several recent statements of
Jiang Zemin at high-ranking military meetings in Beijing confirm this forecast.
-
- Chinese leaders are especially counting on large-scale
direct Russian military assistance, which could include even the actions
of Russian strategic aircraft.
-
- So, what has happened over the first days of April 2001
should not be viewed as an isolated incident, but one in a chain of incidents
that are the "first sparks" of a future grand fire.
-
- To avoid this coming conflict with China, policymakers
and the public must wake up to the great threat namely, the new Chinese-Russian=
military axis and its direct implications for Western security. _____
-
-
- Dr. Alexandr V. Nemets is a consultant for Science Applications=
International Corp., and a consultant to the American Foreign Policy Council.
He is co-author of "Chinese-Russian Military Relations, Fate of Taiwan
and New Geopolitics."
-
- Dr. Thomas J. Torda has been a Chinese linguist specializing
in science and technology with FBIS, and a Chinese/Russian defense technology
consultant with the Office of Naval Intelligence.
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