- One of the biggest lies heard in the American media is
that China may invade Taiwan. China has 1300 million people, so how can
Taiwan with only 22 million people possibly defend itself. The simple
answer is 100 miles of water, known as the Taiwan straits. A Chinese invasion
would require an amphibious force larger than the Anglo-American force
which landed at Normandy in 1944. China has only 10% of the naval power
needed just to attempt a difficult invasion against Taiwan, which has only
three practical landing sites, all heavily fortified. Anyone who performs
some quick research will find that no expert believes China is capable
of invading Taiwan, nor that it is building the naval force needed. All
major powers acquire new warships every year, but every new Chinese warship
is treated as proof of growing Chinese power by the American media.
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- The air forces among these two nations are considered
an even match. China has more aircraft, but Taiwan has more sophisticated
fighters with pilots who are much better trained. In addition, Taiwan's
fighters operating in a defensive role would have the advantages of Taiwanese
ground radar, E-2C airborne radar, and surface-to-air missile support.
The Chinese Air Force could inflict damage on Taiwan, but would lose most
of its Air Force in the process. It could fire some 300 missiles at Taiwan,
but they are not precision guided and would have no military effect. In
short, a massive Chinese air and missile attack could kill a thousand Taiwanese
and cause some damage, but China's airpower would be sacrificed.
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- Likewise, the larger Chinese Navy could attempt to blockade
Taiwan, but would be gradually sunk by sophisticated Taiwanese anti-ship
and anti-submarine weaponry. Last May, Professor Bernard Cole of the
U.S. Naval War, college appeared on C-Span and informed America that China
cannot invade Taiwan, and would be hard pressed to to blockade the island.
The American media ignored this news, but made the U.S. offer to sell
Taiwan "new" weapons a major story. Taiwan's lukewarm reaction
confused most reporters. What happened is that the Pentagon was asked to
develop a list of weapons to offer Taiwan, so the Generals and Admirals
recommended that Taiwan buy used American weapons which they plan to retire.
Most of these weapons are unsuitable for Taiwan's needs, and are overpriced
considering their age.
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- Despite the image of a growing China superpower portrayed
in the American media, China's military remains second class. Estimates
of Chinese military spending range from the CIA's $12.6 billion a year,
to $37.5 billion by the respected Institute of Strategic Studies, whose
latest "1999" data will be cited throughout this article. Interestingly,
both China and Taiwan (which spends $10.7 billion annually) devote a smaller
percentage of their GDP to their military than the USA, which spent a whopping
$305.4 billion in 1999. President Bush has also proposed a two-year increase
in military spending that will exceed China's entire military budget.
In contrast, news reports of China's "big military build-up"
over the past two years fail to note that it just matches its economic
growth, and amounts only $4 billion more each year. China does have nuclear
weapons, but the USA has many times more and would use them to retaliate
if Taiwan were nuked.
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- The most ignored aspect of the China-Taiwan conflict
is China's other national security concerns. It has a long disputed border
with unstable Russia (which spends $55.0 billion each year on its military).
China also has a disputed border with India ($10.7 billion) which resulted
in a short war in 1962 and a 1986 border clash. India's population will
surpass China's by 2020, and Indians are irritated by Chinese military
sales to their archrival Pakistan. Tensions with Vietnam ($0.9 billion)
remain since 1979 when China invaded to teach them a lesson about invading
Cambodia, resulting in a stalemate which killed 55,000 Chinese. Finally,
China is wary of the Japanese, who killed millions of its citizens during
World War II. Japan spends more on its military than China ($41.1 billion
in 1999) and possesses the most powerful air and naval force in the Western
Pacific. Japan may seem docile today, but politicians change quickly, and
all Asian nations worry since Japan has begun building amphibious ships.
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- China's leaders have profited from better relations with
the West. They are modernizing and enjoying the benefits of technology
and trade. Starting a winless war with Taiwan would result in trade embargos
and increased internal unrest among China's diverse cultures. The billions
of dollars in new Taiwanese and American investment in China would end
forever. China's unfriendly neighbors would support Taiwan and deploy
forces to their borders in protest. Meanwhile, China's Air Force and Navy
would suffer devastating losses fighting Taiwan, leaving the entire nation
vulnerable to land grabs by hostile neighbors and internal revolts. A
senseless war with Taiwan would cause China would lose everything it has
gained over the past 20 years.
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- The Chinese seek no tension with the USA. They have
learned to exploit the corrupt American political system for their own
gain. American defense contractors are happy to sell them anything that
can be excused as a commercial venture, and classified American military
technology can be acquired indirectly; click Israeli sales to China for
details. The Chinese have talked tough about taking control of their "renegade"
province for over 50 years, but remain far too weak to take action. However,
these facts are ignored as the U.S. Navy pretends that its aircraft carriers
protect Taiwan from invasion, and whenever the U.S. military establishment
points to potential enemies to justify spending increases. China will not
attack Taiwan, and even if they do, Taiwan can defend itself.
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