- From Denis Meloche denis2@rcn.com 8-22-1
-
- Jeff - Check this orbit simulation for 2001 PM9 for June
2 1970. I know it is not accurate out to decades but it is interesting.
Within .02 AU and the object has tracked through our orbit dragging debris
in the past.
-
- Denis
-
- http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/db?name=2001+PM9
-
-
- Comment
-
- From Stephen
- wibbly.teapot@ntlworld.com
- 8-21-1
-
- Dear Jeff,
-
- If Asteroid 2001 PM9 avoids contact with Earth, it's
going to hit Mars on
- January 3rd 2040
-
- I've been running through the Orbit Simulation Software
at:
-
- http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/db?name=2001+PM9
-
-
-
-
-
- Please enter the date: Jan 3rd 2040 and use the scroll
bars to animate
- the path of the asteroid in the days leading up to Jan
3rd 2040 and you can
- see the two objects are right over the top of each other.
This doesn't look
- like a near miss to me, but at least it's Mars and not
the Earth.
-
- I have attached a screenshot of the image in the Orbit
Simulation
-
- Regards, Stephen
-
-
- Attachment converted: G4:2001PMS-MARS.jpg (JPEG/JVWR)
(00091047)
-
-
-
- I have since checked up on this with an expert and there
is nothing to get panicked about.
-
- My very reliable source wrote:
-
- "I checked the IAUC and MPEC sites:
-
- http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/iauc/RecentIAUCs.html
-
- and there's nothing about it there, which is where I'd
expect to hear about a potential impactor. They got so badly burned in
the scare a few years ago, however, that they're probably inclined to be
extra careful before publishing anything.
-
- Note that on the NEODyS page:
-
-
- http://newton.dm.unipi.it/cgi-bin/neodys/neoibo?objects:2001PM9;main
-
- the minimum possible distance for the close appeoaches
is never less than 0.015 AU. Now an AU is 149,597,870 km, so that's a miss
distance of 2,243,968, more than 350 Earth radii, so at first glance it
doesn't look like there's anything to worry about. With such objects you
can't really rely on osculating elements, especially those derived from
only 8 days of observation; only with additional observations over a longer
arc and numerical integration will really accurate predictions emerge.
-
- There is a process for rating potential impactors on
the "Torino Scale" based on closeness of approach and size. We'll
have to see how this one is rated.
-
- The one that gets us will probably hit on the daylight
side like Tunguska, having never been observed beforehand. This is why
we need a complete inventory of everything bigger than 1 km, so we can
spot them well in advance.
-
- See
-
-
- http://spaceguard.ias.rm.cnr.it/tumblingstone/issues/num3/milani.htm
-
- for more details."
-
- Mark Lambird wrote:
-
- I read what was on Rense.com about the asteroid. I was
just curiuos how you came up with this info and how sure you are of what
is in it. I don't want to sound mean but I just wondered if you could give
me some back ground.
-
- Thanks
-
- Mark Lambird
DE reporter
-
-
- ------
-
-
- If this is for real, it means trouble.
-
- If it's real, then forget protesting Bush's ABM with
the "BAN SPACE WEAPONS" slogan - we need to get an effective
space force up there now and hope we can blast the thing with nuclear tipped
ICBMs launched from space platforms unless someone has a better idea? Even
if this one misses, the problem will not go away and it must be faced!
-
-
- gear2000@lightspeed.net wrote:
-
- Ok, Jack, now you have a readiness target date.
-
- ****** Forwarded Message Follows *******
-
- http://www.thehotsheets.com:80/Boards/Forum2/HTML/000069.html
-
-
- Sorry to be the one to break this news, but a new Earth
Impactor Asteroid has just been announced by NEODys, and this one...
-
- 1) Is very big
-
- 2) Is on the same order of magnitude of impact probability
as 2001AV43
-
- 3) Will possibly impact the Earth in the very near future!
-
- Let me introduce you to Asteroid 2001PM9.
-
- a) Discovered on August 11, 2001 and observed up until
August 16th. Its orbit was computed and posted today.
-
- b) It's Absolute Magnitude suggests it is anywhere from
530m to 1.2km in diameter...that's up to nearly 3/4 of a mile in diameter!
-
- c) It will make a relatively close pass to within .089AU
on May 10, 2003. The first possible impact date calculated and the one
with the highest probability of occurring is set for June 17, 2005. If
it misses Earth on that pass there are another 28 possible impact dates
calculated between 2005 and 2079.
-
- Dear Readers, following are some facts that ought to
set you right back in your chair, grow you some grey hairs - or cause a
certain amount of lost sleep.
-
- If 2001PM9 impacts the Earth...
-
- 1. It will be the kind of impact event that only happens
once every 25,000 to 500,000 years.
-
- 2. It will impact with a force of somewhere between 100,000
to 800,000 Megatons
-
- 3. It will be somewhere between a "Large Sub-Global
Event" to a "Nominal Global Effect Threshold" Event.
-
- 4. It is estimated that an impact of this order would
result in the loss of anywhere between 500,000 and 1.5 Billion lives (depending
on exactly where it hit).
-
- Ladies and Gentlemen, if and when 2001PM9 impacts the
Earth...
-
- a) If it hits in the Ocean tsunamis could reach "global
scale".
-
- b) If it hits land it could completely destroy an area
the size of California
-
- c) Could raise enough dust to affect the climate and
freeze crops.
-
- d) Create a crater up to 30 km in diameter (18 miles
around).
-
- e) Cause ozone layer destruction on a global scale.
-
- If you worried a little about 1998OX4 and 2001AV43...be
very concerned about this one.
-
- We really need to push the button on this one (get the
word out and get a lot more information).
-
- ------------------------
-
- This message has been edited by Tom (edited 08-17-2001).
-
- The orbit simulator is interesting.
-
- http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/db?name=2001pm9&group=all&search=Search
-
- On June 3, 2003 we will be in the area of the solar system
where 2001PM9 was 10 days before. If this is as big a rock as you say then
it probably has a lot of baggage. A more serious concern is that 2001PM9
has a low inclination orbit that might reach the asteroid belt. It is almost
there now but i am not sure if the orbit goes out that far. I can't remember
if the asteriod belt is closer to Mars or closer to Jupiter. If it does
travel through the belt, then it really could have a lot of baggage. Thanks
for the info. Charlie
-
- Here are the NEODys pages......
-
- 2001 PM9
-
- http://newton.dm.unipi.it/cgi-bin/neodys/neoibo?objects:2001PM9;main
-
- Earth Impact Possibilities
-
- http://newton.dm.unipi.it/cgi-bin/neodys/neoibo?riskpage:0;main
-
-
-
- Comment
-
- Asteroid 2001 PM9 Orbit Simulation
-
- From Kim Burrafato
lensman@stardrive.org
8-20-1
-
-
- Not good. If you look at this official JPL orbit simulation,
you can see that on that date, June 17, 2005, there is a high likelyhood
that this object will be caught in Earth's gravitational field and, well,
you know the rest...
-
- http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/db?name=2001+PM9
-
-
-
- Comment
-
- By Alfred Lehmberg
Lehmberg@snowhill.com
8-21-1
-
- I'm just wondering if this is not something that Humanity
will very tragically miss the point on. Must these near Earth asteroids
be ONLY the "Planet Killers" we paint them to be? These big rocks
that sail down so close to Earth orbit seem to me to be something else,
entirely.
-
- On the orbit simulations animator the reader can find
at the aforementioned NASA URL, the slowly tumbling potential bolides resemble
simple stones across an inky brook of interplanetary space. They are merely
places for humanity to more easily step and stand as it strides away from
the planet. They are habitat in the form of eventual slingshots to the
stars. They are huge collections of concentrated wealth not taken from
the bosom of an abused planet mother. They are GIFT more than they are
THREAT!
-
- They are a BOON, and not a catastrophe. They are a BLESSING
and not a curse. They are an OPPORTUNITY to excel and not an impossible
hurdle to crash over! They are SALVATION! They are DELIVERANCE! They are
REDEMPTION! Astonishingly, this is not hyperbole.
-
- I'm disgusted with an aggregate humanity that stands
around wringing its petulant little hands and whining every time one of
these things sails by. I'm embarrassed by an aggregate humanity apparently
oblivious to the wealth that they more than abundantly indicate. Moreover,
I'm angered by the non-elected leadership allowed by an aggregate humanity
that encourages this kind of shortsighted cultural behavior!
-
- What's everybody so worried about anyway, unless we just
LET these asteroids smash into us like we were deer, stunned frozen on
the highway in approaching cosmic headlights... and then that's just nature's
way of letting us know how cowardly and stupid we were... cheer up!
-
- No, say what you want about Humanity, but it is life
after all, and life finds a way!
-
- We were BORN to capture these things like they were wooly
mammoths. We were made to steer these things around the sky like beasts
of heavy burden. In that noble pursuit we've nothing to lose and everything
to gain for our boldness... besides, our boldness will likely bring mighty
forces to our aid!
-
- Get REAL, people! This much maligned cloud looks to me
to be virtually ALL silver lining... if we want it to be. Read on!
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