Aid workers in Pakistan were bracing themselves for a flood of refugees from Afghanistan yesterday and gave warning that the looming humanitarian "disaster" could be deepened by a poor choice of sites for new camps.

Abdul Latif cradles his six-month-old nephew, Olia Khan, who will die unless his family take the risk of being caught by police as they go for medicine

Yusuf Hassan, spokesman for the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, said nearly one million refugees could arrive in Pakistan and nearly half a million in Iran. Plans were underway in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan to accommodate a further 150,000.

"The UNHCR is planning for an expected 1.5 million Afghans fleeing into neighbouring countries," said Mr Hassan.

The agency said that tens of thousands of Afghans were on the move inside the country to try to avoid threatened strikes against Osama bin Laden and his Taliban protectors.

Pakistan is planning 100 refugee camps in North West Frontier Province, near the Afghan border, for the tide of people expected after any American strike on Afghanistan. Yet all the locations identified are isolated, drought stricken and at risk of attack.

Aid agencies and the United Nations are mounting the world's largest relief effort to cope with the coming crisis. "We are facing a humanitarian disaster of epic proportions," said Mr Hassan.

Crucial to alleviating this impending catastrophe will be the siting of the refugee camps.

Relief workers fear that decisions already taken by the Pakistani government will make the situation worse. None of the camps will be ready for at least two weeks. "We've got to hope that the war doesn't start before then," said one aid worker.

All the new camps are in barren areas, with little access to water. The camps will be controlled and sealed off by the Pakistani army, effectively rendering the refugees prisoners.

Moreover, all will be located in semi-independent tribal areas like Waziristan and Mohmand. These are strongholds of Islamic fundamentalism where many of the local people are fiercely supportive of Afghanistan's Taliban regime.

They will view both refugees and western aid workers with open hostility.

Pakistan already hosts two million Afghan refugees and President Musharraf's government views any new influx as a major security problem.

Aid workers sympathise with the predicament of the Pakistani authorities, but are deeply worried by the decisions made over refugee camps.

Many will be very small, holding no more than 10,000 people. "That's so the Pakistanis can control them," said one aid worker.

Existing camps, where basic facilities are already in place, will not be expanded. Pakistan's concerns about pouring more people into camps that are already hotbeds of Islamic fundamentalism are thought to lie behind this.

Instead, new camps will be constructed in arid areas where the water table is 1,000ft beneath the surface, making the drilling of bore-holes extremely difficult. Oxfam will provide water and sanitation for the camps and its workers are preparing to face a myriad of obstacles.

Alex Renton, spokesman for Oxfam, said: "We have a lot of sympathy with the Pakistani government in the crisis they are facing and we're very relieved that they will help the refugees from Afghanistan.

"The camps are far from ideal. They are in drought stricken areas, they are extremely unsafe and it will be very difficult for us to work, but we're pulling together to get this enormous job done."

Aid workers fear that the camps will become little more than tightly guarded, temporary holding centres, from which the refugees will be returned to Afghanistan as soon as possible.

But many point out that Pakistan already has one of the highest refugee populations in the world and commend its willingness to host more.

Mr Hassan said: "The siting of the camps is not really an issue we want to haggle over. The Pakistanis have been hosting refugees from Afghanistan ever since the war started there in 1979."

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