- Jeff,
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- I have recently started listening to your show and
appreciate
the perpectives you offer especially relating to ties between the current
"war", the economy, and politics. I did a search of your site
and have not found any references to the Kondratieff (also Kondratiev)
economic wave. More
Information
-
- I have a Masters Degree from USC in Systems Management
that I completed in 1995 that concentrated on Systems Theory. A professior
of mine Dr. Kenyon B De Greene, is an noted expert on the Kondratiev
Economic
wave, had us do research into our chosen industries in which we were to
tie an industry to the upcoming Window of Opportunity to be seen based
on the depression that was to occur in 2000. The Kondratiev econmic wave
predicts a major war between 2000-2015, a world wide depression that hasn't
been seen since 1930's and other disruptive political shifts. This econmic
wave was defined in 1920's by a Russian Economist which the cycle is named
after, He was commissioned by the Communists Government in Russia to
predict
the fall of Democracy and capitalism. Instead it showed Capitalism has
self-healing aspects to the econmic system, thereby making it stronger
that structured ecomomies such as socialism and communism. Kondratiev
was jailed and eventually died in a Siberian prison, becuase he found
against
Communism.
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- Most Economists don't support the Kondratiev Economic
theory because it shows they are helpless in their efforts to thwart
depressions,
therefore they are somewhat useless in their studies and attempts to do
it, which kind of effects the job definitions of Economists. If you are
educated in Economics, you will never hear of the cycle in a formal
environment.
Systems Theory on the other hand look at the complexities of systems such
as Economies, Political structures, Social structures, and attempt to find
indicators to support predictors, because the specifics these systems are
so complex, no scientific methods have been able to capture predictable
algoritms. An example of this is "Why can we put a man on the moon
but not fix the poverty problem?" Putting a man on the moon is based
on systems that have limited change and fluxiation (gravity, chemical
reactions
for the engines, control systems effected by electronics). Fixing poverity
includes extremely flexible changing structures such as societies,
economics
of countries and politics of countries.
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- I have been waiting for over five years to see the signs
of the war and econmic collapse based on my studies and a student of the
Kondratiev cycle and you can imagine the challenges in believing that the
depression would hit given the prosperity of the 1990s. Given the current
state of affairs, you may want to do some research into this Ecomomic wave
cycle. It brings all of the events together in a very predictive manner.
This wave has been documented back to the earliest records of economic
figures and industial measures in the 1700s. Four cycles have occured
and we are coming into the fifth cycle.
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