- No matter who comes to power in Afghanistan if the
anti-Taliban
operation succeeds, the first goal of a new government would be to restore
the ruined economy. One of the ways of doing so is the construction of
the Central Asian gas pipeline, a promising project that has been in works
for almost ten years.
-
- The idea to construct a trans-Afghani gas pipeline was
born in Ashkhabad in the early 1990s. After the collapse of the Soviet
Union, newly independent Turkmenia dreamt of becoming a "gas
Kuwait":
the country has approximately 2 trillion cubic meters of gas (30% of world
deposits). The only problem was the fact that all the existing pipelines
ran through Russia's territory. Obviously, Gazprom, the largest exporter
of gas in the CIS, was not going to allow Turkmenian gas to be transported
to Europe. Therefore, the idea to build a new pipeline emerged.
-
- The Argentinean company, Bridas, developed the plan for
the pipeline in 1994. The pipeline was to lead to the Pakistani port of
Chaman. Islamabad became very interested in the project. The 1300-kilometer
pipeline was to transport 1 billion cubic meters of gas a day. There was
also a project for building a pipeline to India. China also expressed an
interest in the $2 billion project.
-
- Afghanistan was at relative peace when the project was
being discussed. Turkmenian President Saparmurat Niyazov felt that the
U.S. could help to guarantee the construction of the pipeline. He was able
to find an American company that became interested in the project: Texan
Unocal bought 54% of the consortium, while Bridas was simply
dismissed.
-
- However, the situation in Afghanistan has changed a great
deal. In 1996, the Taliban captured Kabul. Members of the consortium had
to negotiate with a new and unpredictable partner. According to Mike
Thatcher,
a PR director at Unocal, "we have been negotiating with the Taliban
and the Northern Alliance. We simply wanted to know when the war in
Afghanistan
would end and who would finance the project. There was no reply. When the
Taliban gave refuge to Osama Bin Laden after he had organized the terrorist
acts in Tanzania and Kenya in 1998, we decided to quit the
project."
-
- There is, however, a different opinion. According to
our diplomatic source, "Unocal was not really trying to push the
project.
The company was simply lying to Ashkhabad. The U.S. is not interested in
the Central Asian pipeline. If it is built, Washington will be unable to
control the gas market in the region. Unocal was simply an effective tool
for preventing this project from being realized."
-
- When there is peace in Afghanistan, the idea of the
Central
Asian gas pipeline is likely to surface again. In a recent interview, the
Pakistani ambassador in Moscow, Iftihar Murshed, stated that "the
key to solving the Afghani crisis is in economics. The construction of
this pipeline could solve some of the economic problems in the
region."
-
- The only question is whether anyone will be willing to
take part in such a risky project. Unocal refuses to do so. According to
Thatcher, "we have left the consortium. Our company is a small one;
we do not have many resources. As of now, we have a number of projects
in Indonesia and China and we would not be able to begin any new ones
within
the next five years or so."
-
- It is also quite unlikely that Bridas will return to
the idea. No other company has expressed an interest in the project: the
political risks are too high. The Central Asian pipeline that is destined
to "pacify" Afghanistan will probably remain a paper
project.
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- © National News Service Strana.Ru, 2000. RF Press
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