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Economist Panel Says Recession
Began March 2001
By Glenn Somerville
11-26-1

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The struggling U.S. economy slid into recession in March and its condition was worsened by the Sept. 11 attacks, a member of a panel of economists that officially dates U.S. recessions said on Monday.
 
The announcement by the National Bureau of Economic Research confirmed that a record expansion that began in March 1991 -- after the last nine-month recession that began in mid-1990 -- was snapped exactly a decade later.
 
"The committee is satisfied that the total contraction in the economy is sufficient to merit the determination that a recession is under way," the NBER's business cycle dating committee said.
 
It will be the 10th recession for the world's largest economy since the end of World War Two.
 
The institution said economic activity peaked in March 2001, adding: "A peak marks the end of an expansion and the beginning of a recession."
 
A recession is commonly defined as two straight quarters of shrinking gross domestic product (GDP).
 
A member of the panel, Ben Bernanke, told Reuters the key factor was that job creation had begun to falter, but added the situation had been aggravated by the hijack attacks of Sept. 11, which helped trigger the recession call.
 
"The key factor was aggregate employment which peaked in March," Bernanke said. "The other factors related to manufacturing, such as industrial production. Sales peaked earlier, suggesting the manufacturing recession had already began, but only by March did it appear to have spread to the rest of economy for a broader recession."
 
The panel carefully weighs all the factors involved in assessing the pace of economic activity, and makes its call only when it feels certain that growth has stalled. It knew the economy had slowed prior to Sept. 11 but had not decided to call it a recession at that time.
 
"The attacks clearly deepened the contraction and may have been an important factor in turning the episode into a recession," the official NBER announcement said.
 
Bernanke said the economy was "very much on the borderline" before the attacks but was tipped over by the Sept. 11 attacks, which effectively brought national commerce to a halt for a few days and left lasting scars on sectors like airlines and the tourism industry.
 
"Without Sept. 11 it would have been a very close call," Bernanke said. "Sept 11 pushed us deep enough so that it qualified as a recession."
 
President Bush, speaking to reporters at the White House, said the declaration of a recession added urgency to the need to get a package of economic stimulus measures approved by Congress and passed into law.
 
"I knew the economy was not in good shape right after I took office," said Bush, who was inaugurated in January.
 
 
 
 
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