- (UPI) - Federal law enforcement officials are investigating
to determine whether sleeper cells or freelance agents of Saudi terrorist
mastermind Osama bin Laden have smuggled small, portable nuclear weapons
or radiological bombs into the United States.
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- The deepest concern centers on the chance that bin Laden
has acquired and will use a finished nuclear weapon. Rep. Chris Shays,
R-Conn., chairman of the House subcommittee on national security, told
United Press International: "It's possible, and it's very scary.
"If you asked me if bin Laden really had these weapons, I would
say, probably not, but, on the other hand, I wouldn't be the least surprised
if there were a nuclear explosion in Israel or the United States."
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- One report being investigated by U.S. intelligence officials
came from Pakistani Inter-Service Intelligence sources who had conducted
an interrogation of a "terrorist suspect" in early November.
Under "coercion," the suspect said that agents of bin Laden had
smuggled two portable nuclear weapons into the United States, according
to the report seen by a U.S. government expert.
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- The government expert, who has had access to the Pakistani
investigation, said ISI provided "the highest levels of the U.S. government"
with materials from the ISI interrogation including a summary of the suspect's
confession, which this source had seen. The summary did not give the specific
dates of the smuggling, the method or time of entry. The suspect said only
that the smuggling had been carried out, the U.S. government expert said.
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- The sources of the report "were current ISI officers
who had kept contact with U.S. counterparts" they had known from the
1980s, this U.S. government expert said. The summary was accompanied by
"collateral" or supporting documents, he said. The package was
given to senior U.S. officials in mid-November.
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- The ISI had not rated the report's credibility but felt
it important enough to alert the U.S. government, this source said.
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- "What was disconcerting about the [suspect's] information
was that he knew details of the activation of the weapons and their construction
that are not in the public domain," the U.S. expert analyst said.
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- It could be a nuclear backpack weapon "or some other
Russian portable nuclear weapon," he said.
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- National Security Council spokesman Sean McCormack, asked
Thursday about the report, had no comment but echoed past statements that
the administration is working to ensure that bin Laden does not acquire
or use any weapons of mass destruction.
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- On Dec. 4, the FBI put 18,000 U.S. law enforcement agencies
on "highest alert" because intelligence culled from sources around
the globe indicated the United States could expect a new bin Laden attack
between mid-December and the holidays. The alert continues.
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- The FBI has dissolved its central command post, established
after the Sept. 11 attacks, and set up separate counterterrorism teams.
"They are all out on the street, that's all I can tell you. They are
out on the street looking," an FBI official said.
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- Jim Ford, a former Department of Energy intelligence
official who dealt with nuclear smuggling, said: "The big, big fear
is that nuclear weapons have been sold" to terrorists or nation states
that sponsor terror.
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- Peter Probst, formerly of the Pentagon's Office of Assistant
Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low Intensity Conflict,
did not know of the Pakistani report, but said that there is "a great
fear" within the Bush administration of a spectacular, follow-on strike
by bin Laden aimed at decapitating the U.S. government, using either a
finished nuke or a radiological device - a core of conventional explosive
wrapped inside nuclear waste such as iodine 131.
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- Probst acknowledged that, in connection with the latest
terror alert, he had spoken with U.S. government officials who had expressed
concern over Russian-made "backpack weapons and nuclear suitcase bombs."
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- Shays said that official records had confirmed that Russia
had produced 132 such weapons and that 48 remained unaccounted for. All
disappeared from Russian arsenals.
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- "We know that bin Laden made strenuous efforts to
buy these weapons," Shays said. "We know that security at some
Russian nuclear arsenals was terrible. We know that some Russian officials
were corrupt. We are told of attempted thefts and of plots that were foiled,
but we are never told of the plots that succeeded."
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- Probst said, "It would seem probable that some [bin
Laden] deals for purchasing weapons did go through." Because of
this nagging fear, the FBI is monitoring the major port cities of the United
States mainland including New York, Los Angeles, and San Francisco, according
to federal law enforcement sources.
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- Federal authorities are checking any "suspicious"
cash rentals of trucks or leases of private aircraft, including flight
plans, since a small, portable nuclear weapon could be dropped by terrorists
via parachute into a remote area and retrieved by other cell members, U.S.
intelligence officials said.
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- Air freight, thought by U.S. intelligence sources to
be particularly vulnerable, is also being carefully monitored because,
according to Probst, "25 percent of air freight is carried by passenger
aircraft and is never inspected."
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- A nightmare scenario would be a hostile nuke exploded
aboard a plane by means of a carefully adjusted barometric detonator rigged
to go off on landing, said Probst. "You could have a multiple take-down
of aircraft."
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- "We are not neglecting any possibility in this -
we can't afford to, no matter how farfetched it seems," an FBI official
told UPI.
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- According to U.S. intelligence officials, the weapons
could easily have been smuggled in by ship, if the Pakistan report proves
to be accurate. "We have zip port security," one such official
said.
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- Stephen Flynn, senior fellow for national security studies
at the Council on Foreign Relations, said: "The United States has
16,000 ships entering its ports every day. Adding in shipments entering
by truck, train or air freight, the total of import shipments to the United
States is 21.4 million per year.
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- "You could put a nuclear or a chemical weapon in
a container aboard a ship leaving Karachi, and that ship will land at Vancouver
or Oakland, San Francisco, or the Gulf Coast, and we would never know the
difference."
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- Insecure Borders
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- Flynn said that only 3 percent of ship containers ever
get inspected. Stefan Leader, president of Eagle Research and consultant
for the Department of Energy, said that bin Laden was known to own 23 ships
registered to companies in various countries. Once on the high seas, "such
ships are really difficult to find from a defense point of view,"
he said.
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- Russian backpack weapons are also a worrisome priority
in the current alert. Said one former senior CIA official, "It's not
a big reach at all to say that it's probable that bin Laden has been able
to obtain this system."
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- The Soviet nuclear backpack system was made in the 1960s
for use against NATO targets in time of war, U.S. intelligence sources
said. It consists of three "coffee can-sized" aluminum canisters,
which must be connected before detonation. In wartime, the system required
a crew of five, including a commander, radio officer and three Army non-coms.
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- The weapon was formerly in the custody of the Ninth Directorate
of the KGB, responsible for executive protection. Assigning a nuclear weapon
to such a group was like "assigning a nuclear system to the secret
service," a second senior CIA official said. Other CIA officials said
that assigning the weapon to that directorate probably meant that the teams
"were close to the Soviet leadership."
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- According to information derived from SVR defectors and
given the CIA, the three aluminum canisters are carried in green canvas
cases with pockets on the outside. All three must be connected to make
a single unit to explode. The detonator is about 6 inches long and carried
in a "knife-like sheaf." It has a 3-to-5-kiloton yield, depending
on the efficiency of the explosion, U.S. intelligence sources told UPI.
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- It is kept powered during storage by a battery line connected
to the canisters.
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- During the first week of October, Israel's Mossad was
reported to have detained a Palestinian attempting to enter Jerusalem from
Ramallah who was wearing such a system on his back. The item was contained
in a CIA Daily Threat Report. UPI has several times re-interviewed its
sources who insisted that the item was in a such a report the first week
of October.
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- Initially, there were conflicting reports as to whether
the pack contained a radiological weapon or a nuclear system. UPI re-interviewed
the sources who saw the Daily Report item, and they insisted that the weapon
was nuclear, not radiological.
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- Had the Palestinian been carrying a segment or the whole
system? Israel has steadfastly refused to comment, but a former senior
CIA official told UPI Sunday "the system is very small and could be
easily carried and used by one person." There would be "no necessity
to take it in segments."
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- Another former CIA official said that the Soviet backpack
device "was a plutonium implosion" device and said that UPI's
description of it "is accurate. The physics work."
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- Probst said of the Mossad item, "I don't discount
the report at all. If bin Laden were going nuclear, a backpack weapon is
the way he would go."
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- The backpack system remains classified and is not to
be confused with a nuclear suitcase bomb, even though the two are often
talked of as though they were interchangeable.
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- A nuclear suitcase bomb is "as large as two footlockers,"
said former CIA countererrorism chief Vincent Cannistraro. "Bin Laden
hasn't got any suitcase bombs. That's just total crap."
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- But Shays pointed out that "evidence isn't conclusive,
and since it isn't, we have to work with the worst case."
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- Col. Lunev's Expertise
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- According to former Soviet military intelligence officer
and NewsMax.com pundit <http://www.newsmax.com/pundits/Lunev.shtmlStanislav
Lunev, suitcase bombs are actually Soviet-made RA-115s that can't be transported
by suitcase. According to Cary Sublette in an article for the Federation
of American Scientists, "Osama Suitcase Bombs and Ex-Soviet Loose
Nukes," they weigh about 60 pounds and have a yield of one kiloton.
The dimensions of the suitcase bomb are 24"x16"x8."
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- They are difficult to set up, said Lunev, because a small
current of power is needed to store the weapon safely near its detonation
site. This means the operator of the weapon would need to run a fine wire
up to a power line. If someone discovered the wire powering the weapon
and tried to walk it back, the wire is so fine it would break, he said.
If the battery in the weapon runs low, then the backpack was programmed
to send a signal to a Soviet satellite or the nearest consulate.
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- If any one tampers with it, the nuclear materials are
disabled, Lunev said.
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- Shays said that the Soviets had even made small nuclear
weapons "that look like rocks," a fact confirmed by Lunev.
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- The sources of UPI's information on the backpack weapons
came from CIA debriefings of SVR intelligence officers who had trained
on the weapons. Regarding the latest terror alert, "The pucker factor
is very high," a former senior CIA official said.
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- Since the Sept. 11 attacks, Continuity of Government
procedures have been in place that ensure, for example, that the president
and vice president never occupy the same spot at the same time. They also
provide for the orderly succession of power should a top U.S. leader be
killed.
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- Some U.S. experts are skeptical of the use by terrorists
of an "all-up" or finished nuclear weapon. Leader, while conceding
that reports of any possible nuclear attacks must be treated seriously,
said he still thinks use of portable nukes by terrorists is "a low
probability scenario."
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- Much more likely is the use of a radiological bomb or
Radiological Dispersal Device, chiefly "because it's simpler to make
and easier to use," he said. Probst agreed with this.
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- But Larry Johnson, a former State Department counterterrorism
official, downplayed the threat, saying that while there should be concern
over any nuclear threat, he believes that the present concerns are "exaggerated."
He said: "It's not like a nuclear weapon has an eternal shelf life.
If you don't use one by such and such a date, you're likely not to be able
to use it at all. Look at your lawn mower that you left in the garage all
winter; it requires some work before you can use it again."
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- The truth remains hard to come by. One administration
official said that nuclear threats are handled by "a host of highly-secret,
highly compartmented programs, requiring a Special Compartmentalized Information
clearance.
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- He declined to comment on the Pakistan report or any
other threat issues.
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- And even Johnson conceded that U.S. concerns over terrorist
nuclear weapons "can't be dismissed out of hand."
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- Ignorance is what tortures U.S. intelligence officials
as the terror alert continues, especially the question of how many loose
nukes were floating around after the Soviet Union dissolved in December
1991. "What's really killing us is all that we don't know," said
a former senior U.S. CIA official. "There is so much we simply don't
know, and because of that, we can't separate fact from conjecture."
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- Copyright 2001 by United Press International.
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- All rights reserved.
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