- Pakistan and India are readying their military forces
- including their ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons - for war, The
Washington Times has learned.
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- U.S. intelligence officials say Pakistani military moves
include large-scale troop movements, the dispersal of fighter aircraft
and preparations for the transportation of nuclear weapons from storage
sites.
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- India also is moving thousands of its troops near the
border with Pakistan and has dispersed some aircraft to safer sites away
from border airfields, say officials familiar with intelligence reports
of the war moves.
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- Pakistan is moving the equivalent of two armored brigades
- several thousand troops and hundreds of tanks and armored vehicles -
near the northern part of its border with India.
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- Indian and Pakistani troops exchanged heavy mortar fire
over their border in southern Kashmir today, Agence France-Presse reported.
Five Indian soldiers were seriously injured in the heaviest shelling in
four months, a senior Indian army official said.
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- More than 1,000 villagers were evacuated from their homes
overnight for the operation, according to the report.
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- Officials say the most alarming signs are preparations
in both states for the use of nuclear-tipped missiles.
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- Intelligence agencies have learned of indications that
India is getting its short-range Prithvi ballistic missiles ready for use.
The missiles are within range of the Pakistani capital, Islamabad.
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- Meanwhile, Pakistan is mobilizing its Chinese-made mobile
M-11 missiles, also known as the Shaheen, which have been readied for movement
from a base near Sargodha, Pakistan.
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- Intelligence reports indicate that India will have all
its forces ready to launch an attack as early as this week, with Thursday
or Friday as possible dates.
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- Pakistan could launch its forces before those dates in
a pre-emptive strike.
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- Disclosure of the war preparations comes as President
Bush on Saturday telephoned leaders of both nations, urging them to calm
tensions, a sign of administration concern over the military moves in the
region.
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- The administration also fears that a conflict between
India and Pakistan would undermine U.S. efforts to find terrorists in Afghanistan.
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- U.S. military forces are heavily reliant on Pakistani
government permission to conduct overflights for bombing and other aircraft
operations into Afghanistan, primarily from aircraft carriers located in
the Arabian Sea.
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- With tensions growing between the states, U.S. intelligence
officials are divided over the ultimate meaning of the indicators of an
impending conflict.
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- The Pentagon's Joint Staff intelligence division, known
as J-2, late last week had assessed the danger of conflict at "critical"
levels.
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- Other joint intelligence centers outside the Pentagon,
including those supporting the U.S. military forces responsible for the
Asia-Pacific region and for Southwest Asia, assess the danger of an India-Pakistan
war as less than critical but still "serious."
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- Intelligence officials are especially worried about Pakistan's
nuclear arsenal because control over the weapons is decentralized. Even
before the latest moves, regional commanders could order the use of the
weapons, which are based on missiles or fighter-bombers.
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- The Prithvi has a range of about 155 miles, and the Indians
are estimated to have some 75 Prithvis in their arsenal.
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- They also are working on longer-range Agni missiles.
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- U.S. intelligence officials believe India has about 60
nuclear weapons that can be delivered by missiles or aircraft.
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- Its nuclear-capable aircraft include Russian-made bombers,
including 10 Tu-142 Bears and four Tu-22M Backfires, as well as several
hundred MiG-27, MiG-29 and Su-30 fighter-bombers.
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- Pakistan's missile force consists of some 50 M-11s, which
have a range of about 186 miles, enough to hit the Indian capital of New
Delhi. Its medium-range Ghauri missiles have a range of about 800 miles,
enough to hit most parts of India.
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- U.S. intelligence agencies have obtained reconnaissance
photographs from one Pakistani missile base that show storage-shed doors
open in preparation for the movement of missiles. One of the photographs
shows a line of 47 rail cars on a track near the base in preparation for
the movement of missiles and their warheads.
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- The private Natural Resources Defense Council estimates
that Islamabad has between 24 and 48 nuclear weapons.
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- © 2001 News World Communications, Inc. http://www.washtimes.com/national/20011231-659483.htm
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