- By Pavel Felgenhauer
Moscow Times
December 6, 2001
-
- When Vladimir Putin assumed supreme executive power some
two years ago, it soon became obvious that he was an enthusiast of naval
power. He visited warships and even spent a night in a nuclear submarine
of the Northern Fleet.
-
- While underwater at sea, Putin took part in a traditional
Russian initiation ceremony for novice submariners: He gulped down a glass
of sea water and kissed a hammer dangling from the sub's cabin
ceiling.
-
- Maybe as a boy in St. Petersburg -- a city that was
always
the seat of Russian naval power -- Putin dreamed of battleships and
submarines,
so he used his new capacity as supreme commander-in-chief as an opportunity
to get on deck.
-
- Naval commanders did their best to exploit Putin's soft
spot. The navy prepared a draft of an ambitious naval doctrine that
envisaged
a massive shipbuilding program. Well-informed sources say that admirals
were asking for a fleet with up to 15 aircraft carriers to challenge the
United States on the open seas.
-
- The naval exercises in August 2000 in the Barents Sea
-- unprecedented in scope since the 1980s -- were planned to show off to
Putin the capabilities of the navy. It was believed that after this show
of strength, Putin's favorite --- navy chief Admiral Vladimir Kuroyedov
-- would be promoted to defense minister or the No. 2 in Russia's military
hierarchy, the chief of General Staff.
-
- It was also rumored in Moscow at the time that Northern
Fleet commander Admiral Vyacheslav Popov would become the new naval chief,
replacing Kuroyedov, while Popov's deputy, Vice Admiral Mikhail Motsak,
would take over the Northern Fleet.
-
- But during the exercises, the nuclear submarine Kursk
exploded and sank, killing all 118 men on board. The public was enraged
by the incompetence and untruthfulness of the naval authorities and, first
of all, the Northern Fleet command. Putin's popularity took a dip.
-
- The possible promotions of Admirals Popov, Motsak and
Kuroyedov was postponed. But no one in the navy was disciplined or
ousted.
-
- Putin weathered the public outcry without seeking
scapegoats
or punishing the guilty, while the naval chiefs did seek and soon
discovered
a scapegoat -- the West. It was alleged that a U.S. or British submarine
hit the Kursk and slipped away.
-
- Within the Russian military hierarchy, the chiefs tend
to be anti-Western, but the navy is a special case. Almost everybody else
has potential enemies other than the West to confront in the south and
east. The navy, especially the Northern Fleet (with more than half of all
Russian warships and over 90 percent of the new ones), has only the United
States and other NATO navies to confront in the Atlantic.
-
- If Russia becomes a long-time ally of the West, there
is no need whatsoever to keep the Northern Fleet as it is today and no
need at all to begin a massive new shipbuilding program. By constantly
claiming, against all odds, that a mysterious "foreign
submarine,"
presumably American, sunk the Kursk, Russian admirals were not merely
trying
to shift the blame, they were fighting to keep in place the navy they
loved.
-
- After Sept. 11, Putin openly began to steer Russia's
foreign policy toward the West. This apparent U-turn has caused lots of
apprehension and even some opposition within the Russian military. It's
hardly a coincidence that Putin responded by assaulting the most
anti-Western
faction of all -- the North Fleet command.
-
- Popov, Motsak and 12 other high-ranking naval officials
were ousted or demoted last week for "serious failures" in
maintaning
the fleet, for mismanagement of the exercise in which the Kursk sank and
the organization of the subsequent rescue operation.
-
- Putin also specifically mentioned that despite all the
costly efforts, no solid evidence of a Kursk collision with a foreign sub
was discovered.
-
- The military careers of former nuclear submarine captains
Popov and Motsak have been broken. Kuroyedov and other chiefs are still
in place, but all are surely terrified by the scope and severity of the
ouster. The Russian military is in such a state of decay that any military
chief can be fired anytime for "serious failures," so no one
is safe.
-
- Meanwhile, Putin's approval ratings are growing and have
reportedly passed 80 percent as the pro-Western part of the public joins
the ranks of the traditional Putin fans. For the time being, Putin, if
he so wishes, may proceed with his new pro-Western policies fully
unopposed.
-
- ___
-
- Pavel Felgenhauer is an independent defense
analyst.
|
