- WASHINGTON - With the US
campaign in Afghanistan close to winding down, pro-Indian lobbies have
become super active in raising loud voices in Washington about targeting
Pakistan in the next phase.
What was only being whispered in US intelligentsia, because of Islamabad's
need for US military campaign in Afghanistan, is now being expressed quite
openly as result of the Indian campaign. Surprisingly, not much is being
done by the Pakistani side to counter this growing campaign.
The lead has been taken by the influential intelligence online outfit,
Stratfor. In its latest issue, it declares that the next country the United
States has to deal with if it wants to break Al-Qaeda is not Iraq or Somalia
but Pakistan.
The United States cannot begin the process of shutting down Al-Qaeda globally
until their organization inside Pakistan is broken. Al-Qaeda was always
present in Pakistan and following the Taliban collapse, its numbers there
has undoubtedly surged. Many or even all may stay because Pakistan is a
good place from which to operate, says Stratfor.
It opines that unless the Pakistani government acts directly against Al-Qaeda,
the United States must either begin to treat Pakistan as a hostile power
or must abandon its strategic goals. However, it finds the latter options
impossible. It says that Musharraf is unlikely to act effectively to destroy
Al-Qaeda's presence in Pakistan. There are too many in Pakistan who would
have to cooperate with this process that is unwilling and incapable of
doing so.
Therefore, says Stratfor, the United States is on a collision course with
Pakistan, made all the more complex by the fact that the government there
is not capable of giving the United States what it must have. It suggests
that if Washington is not going to abandon its goals, it must create a
plan of operation in Pakistan. It is difficult to imagine any circumstance
under which this will not compel the United States to take some actions
against at least parts of Pakistan.
The United States will need regional strategic support. "India is
ready and waiting. China, on the other hand, is unpredictable. It is wary
of US actions, hostile to increased Indian power and has longstanding relations
with Pakistan. China does have an Islamic problem, but Beijing's geopolitical
interests do not include the collapse of Pakistan."
It says that the hardest part is recognizing that the United States has
not yet achieved true freedom of action. "The menu is still being
drawn up by others, and from where we sit, the next item on the menu is
Pakistan."
The agency minces no words in declaring that Pakistan is the country of
refuge for Taliban and Al-Qaeda fighters. "That is the country where
support for them is the highest and where supporters deeply influence major
institutions."
In a chilling suggestion it warns that Pakistan must either change or be
changed. Otherwise, it says, the United States must abandon its ambitions
relative to Al-Qaeda. The United States will not abandon its fight, nor
can it unilaterally act in Pakistan, although it can manipulate internal
affairs as it did in Afghanistan.
However, it acknowledges that Pakistan is not Afghanistan, and such manipulation
could have explosive results. And for India, this is the historical opportunity
it has waited for since its founding, it concludes.
With the Taliban withdrawal, the focus is shifting to countries that could
next face US military attention, such as Somalia or Iraq. However, if Washington
really wants to break the Al-Qaeda network, it must deal with Pakistan
first. It will become increasingly difficult for the United States to avoid
taking some action in at least parts of that country.
The mood in Washington is one of subdued satisfaction. The war in Afghanistan
has been concluded, with the primary strategic objective achieved: the
country can no longer be used as a base of operations for Al
-Qaeda. Secondary strategic objectives though have not been attained. The
bulk of Taliban fighters have not been killed or captured and it will not
be clear until after winter whether their cohesion has been permanently
shattered.
The senior commanders of the Taliban have also not been liquidated. Above
all, Al-Qaeda's leadership, particularly Osama bin Laden, still appears
to be on the loose.
Washington's perception of the current situation is that it now has the
freedom to choose its next step. But what that will be just isn't clear,
as new issues will force themselves on the United States. Stratfor's suggestion
is that country should be Pakistan.
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- The News International, Pakistan. http://jang.com.pk/thenews/dec2001-daily/27-12-2001/national/n4.htm
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