- Due to the significance of world events, we wanted to
further comment as follows.
- A. We accurately perceived post 9-11 that President
Bush attempted to incite overthrows of Islamic nuclear (Pakistan) and Islamic
oil (Saudi Arabia).
- B. By thrashing his weight around, President Bush truly
generated fear among the Saudis that the US was intent to overthrow their
- C. By doing so, he elevated a facade of a military resolution
to a political resolution when on or about March 20th the Saudis for the
first time presented a peace initiative.
- D. By this time, President Bush, in seeing that he was
not about to cause a coup within Pakistan, allowing him to intercede, at
least to the degree of securing Pakistani nuclear weapons, went out and
simply 'bought' Musharraf.
- E. Now having bought him, Musharraf at US urging went
forth with a referendum to afford him five years of additional power by
- F. President Bush in fully knowing that there is a covert
cold war going on between the US and China, openly supported the referendum
knowing about the major infirmities of fraud and coercion as part of the
alleged election process.
- G. The entire political power world knows and saw this
as a major interventionary victory for the US, which we tell you was deliberate
in causing China overt global political embarrassment.
- H. President Bush is in effect saying that while China
has been calling the US a paper tiger, that the US now says to China's
new friends, who are willing to forego their long-term history and relationship
with the US, that it is China who is the paper tiger.
- I. This puts enormous pressure on China to save face
and should China fail to respond to Bush's 'I dare you to' challenge, China
will lose great face.
- J. Unfortunately, we believe China will respond (especially
because it is so easy for them to covertly undermine the US agenda).
- K. On March 30th, the literal first day of the Israeli
incursion into the West Bank we said that Arafat was the safest man in
the Middle East.
- L. When, many days later, Bush gave Sharon a mandate
to withdraw and Sharon twice refuted Bush's public mandate, it became obvious
to the world what we knew: that Bush authorized the incursion.
- M. Our position proved accurate that Sharon went out
to eliminate all the threats to Arafat. Yasser Arafat admitted to the US,
from our perspective, that he has to support terrorism because if he supports
the Saudi peace initiative those militant groups totally against any accord
will proceed to undermine him if not kill him.
- N. Thus, Sharon was given the green light to eliminate
all those local groups, giving Arafat no excuse not to speak for the Saudi
peace initiative (except conveniently to supreme pragmatist and strategist
Arafat there are several groups remaining in Gaza who have already warned
Arafat about some of his recent behavior).
- O. We interpreted the strategic phase after the elimination
of the local terrorists as an expedited move toward the Saudi peace, especially
in that the staged terrorism which platformed Sharon's incursion also served
as a platform of creating the ideal environment for the Israeli people
to accept any legitimate peace (no doubt further aided by the emergence
of anti-Semitism globally).
- P. While Sharon took out the local terrorists, the claimed
problem for Arafat, Israel claimed that it could not accept the Saudi peace
because with Syria, Iraq and Iran, any peace will only be a ruse to obtain
strategic land to launch a military attack at what remains of Israel.
- Q. The US consequently has had to accept responsibility
to neutralize Iraq, Iran and Syria, which responsibility it does not assume
with great reluctance.
- R. When Syria was given a prestigious rare seat on the
UN Security Council nearly immediately post 9/11, no one could explain
it. Mainstream media didn,Äôt touch it. Of course, our assessment
that China was all over Syria, explained it. Bush went out and offered
Assad of Syria everything and anything it wanted and no doubt the Saudis
would have not announced the peace initiative UNLESS it knew Syria and
everyone else would support it. Thus in Beirut (the Arab League meeting
which took place only days later), everyone did support it in principle.
- S. Of course, Israel said to the US with just cause
that Syria was going to get back with a ribbon the Golan and control of
the water resources, and Israel getting from Syria a 'promise' even with
a US guarantee, just wouldn't cut it for Israel.
- T. The very fact that both Egypt and Jordan, the two
countries with written peace agreements, stood openly ready to abandon
them to join a war against Israel, after its 'criminal 'incursion' into
the West Bank, only proved the case to the US.
- U. Thus, we came out with an assessment that there was
an 80% probability of a regional war. We looked to the scenario of Israel
attacking Syria due to Hizbollah rocket attacks and when Iraq came in to
aid Syria, the US would move against Iraq while Israel undermined Assad
- V. We thought China would sense this scenario as well
and thus Syria has been awfully quiet recently to reduce giving Israel
any excuse to initiate such a regional conflict.
- W. Moreover, just days ago, the premier of China went
to Lebanon, publicly saying de facto that China would intercede for Lebanon.
At the same time, President Zemin went to Iran to publicly lock in their
support and backing for Iran. Further, the US seeing this intercession
sent Powell to see Mubarack the very day when there was a Chinese delegation
in Egypt to discuss mutual cooperation for the 21st century. Mubarack had
the nerve to tell Powell that he had a headache and sent a lesser official
to visit with Powell.
- X. China knows that the US is intent to ram through
a peace. By doing so, by giving the region renewed stability, it undermines
China's successes in the Middle East, accomplished covertly through the
Clinton presidency. Thus, in our opinion, China's best option is to blow
apart the possibility of peace no later than on or at about the time that
Arafat publicly supports it. In our opinion, it will do so by acting through
a third party, staging it to blame Israel by compromising a religious Islamic
site. Alternatively, a major Jewish site could be compromised foreclosing
the possibility of any peace.
- Y. Moreover, we have interpreted that since the major
players recognize the US's aggressive stance for Musharraf, they have concluded
that the US is desperate enough and needs to undermine current regimes
in Syria and Iraq (at minimum).
- Z. Our concern is that since this is a (covert) dynamic
recognizable by China, China is countering by telling its friends that
if the regimes in Jordan and Egypt are undermined, the US will be totally
locked out of the Middle East and with control over oil the US agenda in
the 'unipolar' new world order agenda will be severely compromised.
- Conclusion: We, for the above reasons, continue to conclude
that these are the most dangerous times since the founding of the nation,
since the threat of conflict with China is far more serious in nature than
any encountered against the former Soviet Union. Moreover, we have concluded
what we sensed; that Bush's advisors are telling him better to confront
China today than tomorrow. Moreover, we sense that these same advisors
do not believe that China will make any major response to the US 'dares'
to it; that China in reality is the true paper tiger, and if China fails
to respond to the loss of face regarding Pakistan and Musharraf that the
US will offer China Taiwan on a take it or leave it basis with the understanding
that everything else is off their plate.
- We, however, do not believe that China will accept it;
we believe China will respond on two grounds
- a. Upsetting the Saudi peace initiative is a doable
project for China, where it can still hide its role and participation and
- b. Our long-standing viewpoint that the Oslo peace process
(renamed Saudi peace initiative) would never result in a genuine or sincere
peace. Our position, which we relayed through intermediaries to President
Bush, is that while we applaud his elevation of a military resolution to
a political resolution, he must now elevate the political resolution to
a religious resolution.
- In our humble opinion, whether or not a religious resolution
will or will not be pursued, will direct the entire tone of the future
for the Middle East, the US, and the world.
- Finally, while many stocks have experienced a 1929 result,
the Dow and major index components hold up well. However, you have seen
that the US is bending over backwards three times over not to overtly announce
a conflict position with China. If you see any of the following, it might
not be long until the Dow experiences some form of evaporation in price.
- a. A major terrorist act that forecloses the Saudi peace.
- b. A coup against King Abdullah of Jordan and or President
Mubarack of Egypt.
- c. Assassination of Musharraf
- In Damascus last week, Syrians surrounded the embassies
of Jordan and Egypt with unmitigated hatred for their signing peace agreements
with Israel. This counter strategy including the one announced by Iraq
and Iran to put forth a 30 day suspension of oil sales, shows us that China
is actively engaged in serving as advisors to those regimes wanting to
or having aligned with China over the US. Thus, it is necessary that China
now do something to offset its loss of face in Pakistan. Thus, we join
President Bush and his national security advisor in waiting to see whether
China folds or calls. We wouldn,Äôt bother writing this release
if we thought China will be folding (have no doubt that we continue in
wishing not to be right on the interpretations we make which indicate forthcoming
death and destruction).
- We trust that the above analysis during this critical
period in history, which makes the overthrow of Communism in the Soviet
Union pale in comparison (showing you the degree of danger we assess for
current events), will assist you in understanding history as it unfolds
- Joseph Ehrlich Sender, Berl & Sons Inc. Early AM,
May 5, 2002
- PS. Note that when Sharon made the 'criminal incursion'
into the West Bank within 24 hours of when the Beirut Arab League conference
disbanded, the Arab League of nations did not utter a word threatening
to undermine the ratification given in Beirut to the Saudi peace initiative.
This was a red flag that the staging we suspected from the very time of
the announcement of the peace initiative was in play. Further, as we suspected,
events have moved quickly in line with the US need to reach a peace as
quickly as possible (the US wanted Sharon to move more quickly in his assigned
task, but Israel sensitive to world response carried out its assigned mission
with minimal loss of human life as a priority over speed). As a result
of the US need to move things forward quickly, China, while it is reluctant
to move quickly, must make, because of President Bush,Äôs dare,
resulting in loss of face for China, a major counter move sooner than later.
If China proves itself to be the paper tiger, stock markets throughout
the world will soar (and President Bush will lose some of those major worry