Major SenderBerl Review & Analysis
From Joseph Ehrlich

Due to the significance of world events, we wanted to further comment as follows.
A. We accurately perceived post 9-11 that President Bush attempted to incite overthrows of Islamic nuclear (Pakistan) and Islamic oil (Saudi Arabia).
B. By thrashing his weight around, President Bush truly generated fear among the Saudis that the US was intent to overthrow their regime.
C. By doing so, he elevated a facade of a military resolution to a political resolution when on or about March 20th the Saudis for the first time presented a peace initiative.
D. By this time, President Bush, in seeing that he was not about to cause a coup within Pakistan, allowing him to intercede, at least to the degree of securing Pakistani nuclear weapons, went out and simply 'bought' Musharraf.
E. Now having bought him, Musharraf at US urging went forth with a referendum to afford him five years of additional power by popular mandate.
F. President Bush in fully knowing that there is a covert cold war going on between the US and China, openly supported the referendum knowing about the major infirmities of fraud and coercion as part of the alleged election process.
G. The entire political power world knows and saw this as a major interventionary victory for the US, which we tell you was deliberate in causing China overt global political embarrassment.
H. President Bush is in effect saying that while China has been calling the US a paper tiger, that the US now says to China's new friends, who are willing to forego their long-term history and relationship with the US, that it is China who is the paper tiger.
I. This puts enormous pressure on China to save face and should China fail to respond to Bush's 'I dare you to' challenge, China will lose great face.
J. Unfortunately, we believe China will respond (especially because it is so easy for them to covertly undermine the US agenda).
K. On March 30th, the literal first day of the Israeli incursion into the West Bank we said that Arafat was the safest man in the Middle East.
L. When, many days later, Bush gave Sharon a mandate to withdraw and Sharon twice refuted Bush's public mandate, it became obvious to the world what we knew: that Bush authorized the incursion.
M. Our position proved accurate that Sharon went out to eliminate all the threats to Arafat. Yasser Arafat admitted to the US, from our perspective, that he has to support terrorism because if he supports the Saudi peace initiative those militant groups totally against any accord will proceed to undermine him if not kill him.
N. Thus, Sharon was given the green light to eliminate all those local groups, giving Arafat no excuse not to speak for the Saudi peace initiative (except conveniently to supreme pragmatist and strategist Arafat there are several groups remaining in Gaza who have already warned Arafat about some of his recent behavior).
O. We interpreted the strategic phase after the elimination of the local terrorists as an expedited move toward the Saudi peace, especially in that the staged terrorism which platformed Sharon's incursion also served as a platform of creating the ideal environment for the Israeli people to accept any legitimate peace (no doubt further aided by the emergence of anti-Semitism globally).
P. While Sharon took out the local terrorists, the claimed problem for Arafat, Israel claimed that it could not accept the Saudi peace because with Syria, Iraq and Iran, any peace will only be a ruse to obtain strategic land to launch a military attack at what remains of Israel.
Q. The US consequently has had to accept responsibility to neutralize Iraq, Iran and Syria, which responsibility it does not assume with great reluctance.
R. When Syria was given a prestigious rare seat on the UN Security Council nearly immediately post 9/11, no one could explain it. Mainstream media didn,Äôt touch it. Of course, our assessment that China was all over Syria, explained it. Bush went out and offered Assad of Syria everything and anything it wanted and no doubt the Saudis would have not announced the peace initiative UNLESS it knew Syria and everyone else would support it. Thus in Beirut (the Arab League meeting which took place only days later), everyone did support it in principle.
S. Of course, Israel said to the US with just cause that Syria was going to get back with a ribbon the Golan and control of the water resources, and Israel getting from Syria a 'promise' even with a US guarantee, just wouldn't cut it for Israel.
T. The very fact that both Egypt and Jordan, the two countries with written peace agreements, stood openly ready to abandon them to join a war against Israel, after its 'criminal 'incursion' into the West Bank, only proved the case to the US.
U. Thus, we came out with an assessment that there was an 80% probability of a regional war. We looked to the scenario of Israel attacking Syria due to Hizbollah rocket attacks and when Iraq came in to aid Syria, the US would move against Iraq while Israel undermined Assad in Syria.
V. We thought China would sense this scenario as well and thus Syria has been awfully quiet recently to reduce giving Israel any excuse to initiate such a regional conflict.
W. Moreover, just days ago, the premier of China went to Lebanon, publicly saying de facto that China would intercede for Lebanon. At the same time, President Zemin went to Iran to publicly lock in their support and backing for Iran. Further, the US seeing this intercession sent Powell to see Mubarack the very day when there was a Chinese delegation in Egypt to discuss mutual cooperation for the 21st century. Mubarack had the nerve to tell Powell that he had a headache and sent a lesser official to visit with Powell.
X. China knows that the US is intent to ram through a peace. By doing so, by giving the region renewed stability, it undermines China's successes in the Middle East, accomplished covertly through the Clinton presidency. Thus, in our opinion, China's best option is to blow apart the possibility of peace no later than on or at about the time that Arafat publicly supports it. In our opinion, it will do so by acting through a third party, staging it to blame Israel by compromising a religious Islamic site. Alternatively, a major Jewish site could be compromised foreclosing the possibility of any peace.
Y. Moreover, we have interpreted that since the major players recognize the US's aggressive stance for Musharraf, they have concluded that the US is desperate enough and needs to undermine current regimes in Syria and Iraq (at minimum).
Z. Our concern is that since this is a (covert) dynamic recognizable by China, China is countering by telling its friends that if the regimes in Jordan and Egypt are undermined, the US will be totally locked out of the Middle East and with control over oil the US agenda in the 'unipolar' new world order agenda will be severely compromised.
Conclusion: We, for the above reasons, continue to conclude that these are the most dangerous times since the founding of the nation, since the threat of conflict with China is far more serious in nature than any encountered against the former Soviet Union. Moreover, we have concluded what we sensed; that Bush's advisors are telling him better to confront China today than tomorrow. Moreover, we sense that these same advisors do not believe that China will make any major response to the US 'dares' to it; that China in reality is the true paper tiger, and if China fails to respond to the loss of face regarding Pakistan and Musharraf that the US will offer China Taiwan on a take it or leave it basis with the understanding that everything else is off their plate.
We, however, do not believe that China will accept it; we believe China will respond on two grounds
a. Upsetting the Saudi peace initiative is a doable project for China, where it can still hide its role and participation and
b. Our long-standing viewpoint that the Oslo peace process (renamed Saudi peace initiative) would never result in a genuine or sincere peace. Our position, which we relayed through intermediaries to President Bush, is that while we applaud his elevation of a military resolution to a political resolution, he must now elevate the political resolution to a religious resolution.
In our humble opinion, whether or not a religious resolution will or will not be pursued, will direct the entire tone of the future for the Middle East, the US, and the world.
Finally, while many stocks have experienced a 1929 result, the Dow and major index components hold up well. However, you have seen that the US is bending over backwards three times over not to overtly announce a conflict position with China. If you see any of the following, it might not be long until the Dow experiences some form of evaporation in price.
a. A major terrorist act that forecloses the Saudi peace.
b. A coup against King Abdullah of Jordan and or President Mubarack of Egypt.
c. Assassination of Musharraf
In Damascus last week, Syrians surrounded the embassies of Jordan and Egypt with unmitigated hatred for their signing peace agreements with Israel. This counter strategy including the one announced by Iraq and Iran to put forth a 30 day suspension of oil sales, shows us that China is actively engaged in serving as advisors to those regimes wanting to or having aligned with China over the US. Thus, it is necessary that China now do something to offset its loss of face in Pakistan. Thus, we join President Bush and his national security advisor in waiting to see whether China folds or calls. We wouldn,Äôt bother writing this release if we thought China will be folding (have no doubt that we continue in wishing not to be right on the interpretations we make which indicate forthcoming death and destruction).
We trust that the above analysis during this critical period in history, which makes the overthrow of Communism in the Soviet Union pale in comparison (showing you the degree of danger we assess for current events), will assist you in understanding history as it unfolds in 2002.
Joseph Ehrlich Sender, Berl & Sons Inc. Early AM, May 5, 2002
PS. Note that when Sharon made the 'criminal incursion' into the West Bank within 24 hours of when the Beirut Arab League conference disbanded, the Arab League of nations did not utter a word threatening to undermine the ratification given in Beirut to the Saudi peace initiative. This was a red flag that the staging we suspected from the very time of the announcement of the peace initiative was in play. Further, as we suspected, events have moved quickly in line with the US need to reach a peace as quickly as possible (the US wanted Sharon to move more quickly in his assigned task, but Israel sensitive to world response carried out its assigned mission with minimal loss of human life as a priority over speed). As a result of the US need to move things forward quickly, China, while it is reluctant to move quickly, must make, because of President Bush,Äôs dare, resulting in loss of face for China, a major counter move sooner than later. If China proves itself to be the paper tiger, stock markets throughout the world will soar (and President Bush will lose some of those major worry lines).


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