- We don't hear any more about how long the average bear
market lasts. In fact denial is such in Washington and in the corridors
of brokerage houses, banks, investment banks and on CNBC that in spite
of a recession we are told there is none.
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- There has been no recovery and there will be none.
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- It will be difficult for any positive facts to take hold.
We have a falling dollar, a real estate bubble, debt bubble and derivative
bubble. We have war on terrorism that is causing horrendous debt and perpetual
war for perpetual peace. A government deficit that is far larger than has
been admitted by government. Business investment is off 70%. Inflation
fears are rising. Interest rates are soon expected to go higher.
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- The DOW is 50% higher than it should be due to market
intervention by "The Working Group on Financial Markets" known
as the Plunge Protection Team. Oil prices are rising and basically remain
at higher levels due to the declared policy of the Bush Administration
to continually have wars. A balance of payments deficit that shortly will
cease to be financed by foreigners who are removing funds from dollar denominated
assets. That means the FED and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, as they have
done in each of the last two years; increase aggregates of $1.2 trillion
annually.
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- When will we have our next terrorist attack take place
or when will Napoleon Bush attack Iraq or some other country? In this climate
how can business and investors invest? All the cheap gains are gone. How
do you replace the 50% losses in pension and profit sharing lost in the
market? What happens to retirement with a DOW of 4500? How can the public
have faith in a system where corporate crime is endemic and no one goes
to jail? They just buy their way out.
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- We have a government run on fear, which every day strips
us of our privacy and freedom under the guise of terrorism. Corporate earnings
are not going up they are going down. Who would be insane enough in today's
economic environment to pay 35 to 100 times 2002 earnings for a stock?
You have to be unhinged. Is anyone ready for single digit returns over
the next decade? How can anyone invest based on pro-forma earnings?
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- Do investors really believe the price of their home is
going up forever just as their stocks were supposed to do? Don't they realize
they are being conned again. This is why there is a slow movement of funds
into precious metals. Some people realize they need safety. Considering
all of the above except for very special situations you want to be in precious
metals and their stocks, Treasury paper, The Prudent Bear Fund and the
Safe Harbor Fund > >
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