- NEW YORK CITY,
N.Y. (UPI) - Nanotechnology, the science of manipulating matter at the
atomic or molecular scale, will have widespread applications throughout
society within a generation, speakers said Monday at a conference.
-
- Scientists are at the point in the knowledge curve where
nanotech development will advance exponentially, said Ray Kurzweil, inventor
of optical character recognition software and other digital technology.
-
- "Nanotechnology really isn't a strongly defined
field, any more than the Internet or telecommunications, but all three
of those revolutions are underlying technologies which will affect almost
everything," Kurzweil told NanoBusiness Spring 2002 attendees. "We're
looking at pervasive nanotechnology in the 2020s."
-
- The first examples of this should be seen in computing
devices by the end of the decade, Kurzweil said. Nanotech's potential for
further miniaturization of computer chips, displays, wireless communications
devices and other personal computer parts will embed massive amounts of
processing power into building materials and even clothing, blending computers
into everyday environments, he said.
-
- The same shrinking of devices will prompt the development
of 3-D versions of today's chips, Kurzweil said, providing enough computing
power to support true artificial intelligence by 2030, he said.
-
- Such advances will compress 100 years' worth of progress
at today's rate into 25 calendar years, he said, adding 100 years of progress
is a reasonable estimate of what's needed to create self-replicating nanotechnology.
-
- Nanorobots small enough to easily navigate the human
circulatory system will be combined with increased understanding of the
brain's interpretation of sensory information to enhance human capabilities,
Kurzweil said.
-
- The robots would enter the brain and replace the real
world's sensory signals with complete virtual reality, he said. Such advances
are not complete science fiction, he said; medical researchers have encapsulated
insulin-producing cells in nanostructures that allow the insulin to escape
but protect the cells from type I diabetes, where the body's immune system
destroys the cells.
-
- NanoBusiness Spring 2002, organized by the NanoBusiness
Alliance and Penton Media, was conceived as a way to bring nanotech scientists
and venture capitalists together.
-
- Kurzweil told investors in the audience faith in the
technology's inevitable advance hopefully will prevent the boom-and-bust
cycle that has plagued developments such as the Internet.
-
- That hope might be misplaced, said former Speaker of
the House Newt Gingrich, the alliance's honorary chairman. The pattern
of market bubbles, driven by the pressure of human emotions, has remained
stable for 400 years, he said.
-
- That pattern, however, will have very little to do with
nanotech's overall soundness, Gingrich said, using railroads in the early
1800s as a good example. While railroad stock prices cyclically rose and
fell, the overall number of railroad miles increased, as did the efficiency
of locomotives and other rail technology.
-
- Nanotech is at the same point in its development as computing
was in the early 1950s, Gingrich said, with one important difference --
venture capital did not exist at the dawn of computing.
-
- "The more people that are aware of (nanotech), the
more potential capital investment that's aware of this, the more corporations
say, 'Isn't that something we should be looking at,' the faster the rate
of transition (to society) will be," Gingrich told the conference.
"You're going to see a surprisingly rapid transition, partially because
at its core, nano is still science- and technology-centered."
-
- One key to effective development will be investing in
not just applications, but the instrument technology scientists need to
understand how matter behaves at the nano level, Gingrich said. Breakthroughs
from such information will equal the difference between making a lightning
rod and understanding electricity well enough to create the telephone,
he said.
-
- The Bush administration's 2003 budget seeks more than
$700 million for the National Nanotechnology Initiative, which is aimed
precisely at such basic understanding. Other countries are starting to
fund nanotech at similar levels. The United States must continue massive,
ongoing investment in basic and applied research to ensure it maintains
its technological leadership, he said.
-
- Copyright © 2002 United Press International
|