- HOBART, Australia - The Antarctic
Peninsula ice shelves are cracking up and, on the face of things, it is
the most serious thaw since the end of the last ice age 12,000 years ago.
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- The break-up of the ice shelves in itself is a natural
process of renewal, but the size and rate of production of icebergs - some
the size of major cities - is alarming scientists, who blame global warming.
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- The break-off last month of a 500 billion tonne chunk
of the Larsen Ice Shelf - 650 feet (200 metres) thick and with a surface
area of 1,250 sq miles (3,240 sq km) - is the second big break since a
giant iceberg broke away in 1995 and is well beyond normal activity, scientists
say.
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- The production of vast amounts of icebergs is a threat
to the world's climate and the way the ocean's function, they say. And
the process, once started, cannot be reversed.
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- The fear is that a snowball effect will lead to disintegration
of the vast West Antarctic ice shelf, kilometres thick in parts.
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- "The (first) break-off said 'this is not theory,
it's real - a rapid and dramatic collapse of an ice shelf can happen',"
says Neal Young, glaciologist with the Antarctic Cooperative Research Centre
(CRC) in Hobart.
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- "This is saying 'that wasn't a one-off thing.'"
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- Significant warming in parts of the pristine Antarctic
wilderness is expected to continue to send huge icebergs into the Southern
Ocean, and lead to the disintegration of other sections of ice shelves
that fringe Antarctica's continental ice cover.
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- A longer-term effect would be if the disintegration led
to a meltdown of the grounded West Antarctic ice sheet, which would cause
the world's oceans to rise by up to five metres (17 feet).
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- As they delve deeper into the mysteries of the southern
continent, scientists are finding a jigsaw on a gigantic scale.
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- The Antarctic Peninsula, which juts out into the Southern
Ocean, has warmed by 2.5 degrees Celsius over the past 50 years, while
some other areas have cooled. Some parts of West Antarctica have been losing
ice, while, like shifting grains of sand on a beach, ice has built up elsewhere.
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- LONG-TERM FEARS
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- But the main message from the world's biggest concentration
of Antarctic scientists in Hobart, in Australia's southernmost city, is
of retreating West Antarctic ice and massive break-offs.
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- Scientists are not too worried for the moment about rising
sea levels. This is because floating ice shelves displace large amounts
of sea water, and sea levels would effectively remain unchanged if the
ice shelfs disappeared.
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- The real problems arise if the ice built up over millions
of years on parts of Antarctica's land mass melts.
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- "We aren't too worried about the first 100 years
or so when the ice shelves go, because there's no real effect on sea level
and feedback on global climate is really rather small," said Bill
Budd, Professor of Meteorology at the CRC.
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- The CRC is a co-operative body between Australia's Antarctic
Division, the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
(CSIRO), the University of Tasmania and other bodies.
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- But scientists believe that the expected loss of half
the Antarctic's sea ice by the end of the century will have important consequences
for Earth's entire natural system.
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- They are finding that the world's deep ocean circulation
system will slow as the Antarctic produces smaller amounts of dense oxygen-rich
seawater, possibly within 30 years, threatening marine life.
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- "We can't reverse it. Because the greenhouse gas
levels are already up, we can't bring them down, they just get higher,
and the (ocean) cutoff will be stronger at higher levels," Budd said.
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- The Antarctic is normally the source for a large part
of the "bottom water" which feeds oxygen to global ocean depths.
And computer modelling results indicate production of this dense, rich
water has fallen by 20 percent from pre-industrial times.
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- ROBOTIC FLOATS CHECK ANTARCTIC
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- Two technology-crammed research ships, the 1,594 tonne
former Arctic trawler "The Southern Surveyor" and its bigger
cousin, the bright orange "Auora Australis", ride at anchor next
to CSIRO Marine Research headquarters at Hobart harbour.
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- Both vessels are allowing scientists to probe the southern
seas as never before, as they deploy thousands of robotic floats and tonnes
of sensitive equipment in parts of the Antarctic.
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- Senior physical oceanographer Nathan Bindoff is conducting
the first study of ocean circulation under East Antarctica's Amery Ice
Shelf.
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- "(Results show) the ice shelves are vulnerable to
climate change," Bindoff said. "An increase in temperature over
the continental shelf (leads to) slightly warmer water at the back of the
ice shelves...the melt rate goes up."
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- A small increase in ocean temperature from climate warming
could produce a doubling of the melt, which would cause the ice shelf to
shrink dramatically, recede and break off, he said.
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- Two years of physical research is proving model results,
that the entire coastal shape of the 550 km long, 200 km wide Amery Ice
Shelf could soon change as it melts back, he said.
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- A 1999 expedition to the Antarctic south of Tasmania,
near Commonwealth Bay, yielded even more alarming results.
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- An open coastal area near Dumont d'Urville in French
territory has been found to produce the most important source in East Antarctica
of bottom water - "the lungs of the ocean".
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- In the depths of winter, strong freezing winds cascade
down the Arctic continent to race across the ocean surface, pushing ice
floes away, forming new sea in open water near the coastline.
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- The oxygen-rich highly-saline seawater which remains
sinks to the ocean floor to form 20-25 percent of Antarctica's total bottom
water production, which then circulates the globe, promoting ocean circulation
and life.
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- Bottom water is also sensitive to climate change, with
no production near Dumont d'Urville in some years, Bindoff said.
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- "These patterns are beyond natural variability,"
he said.
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- CHANGING SEAS
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- One question occupying Tom Trull, leader of Biogeochemical
Cycles Programme at the CRC, is whether disappearance of half the Antarctic's
sea ice by the end of the century would also halve the Southern Ocean's
krill, the tiny planktonic crustaceans which are most abundant animal organism
on earth.
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- Krill, the keystone of the Antarctic ecosystem and bread
and butter for seals, penguins and whales, need ice for sanctuary and for
food from algae.
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- Trull says CRC scientists predict a 15 percent drop in
total global marine phytoplankton production by the end of the century
because of slowing ocean circulation.
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- By then, melting of the grounded Antarctic ice sheet
could be adding to predicted sea level rises of 30-50 centimetres this
century. And fears remain about the long-term stability of the West Antarctic
ice sheet because of rises in ocean temperature.
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- "It is unlikely to collapse over the next 100 years,
but projections on a longer term are uncertain," said John Church,
Polar Waters Programme leader in the CRC.
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- http://www.planetark.org/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/15948/story.htm
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