- The report by a retired Army colonel envisions a peacekeeping
mission that could last up to a decade and involve special operations forces,
airborne troops, infantry brigades, armored divisions and police trainers.
The mission outlined to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee is only
slightly more ambitious than what is taking shape in draft plans at the
Pentagon.
One insider familiar with that planning said the estimate by retired Col.
Scott R. Feil, co-director of a panel developing plans for post-conflict
Iraq, could be low. As many as 80,000 troops and an annual cost of $20
billion could be required.
Whatever numbers wind up in official Bush administration plans, the testimony
in the second day of Senate hearings on the possibility of a U.S. invasion
of Iraq underscores the massive scope of military operations envisioned
to prevent anarchy in that country once the formidable task of toppling
Saddam's regime is accomplished.
''The planning for post-conflict reconstruction must commence now,'' said
Feil, co-director of the Iraq study sponsored by the Association of the
United States Army and the Center for Strategic and International Studies,
a think tank based in Washington.
Lawmakers reacted with astonishment at the scale of the peacekeeping mission
envisioned.
''This is a very daunting prospect,'' said Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Ind. ''There
is an enormous commitment of expense and people for a number of years.''
A U.S. peacekeeping force in Iraq would have to be roughly twice the size
of the force sent into Bosnia in 1995. That's because of the possibility
of infighting among ethnic Kurd, Arab and Shiite factions in Iraq and the
threat that outside forces, possibly from neighboring Iran, would try to
exploit the post-conflict chaos.
Other missions for the peacekeepers:
* Securing Iraq's chemical and biological stores and manufacturing plants.
* Patrolling the Iranian border area.
* Guarding major oil fields.
Feil arrived at the $16 billion figure based on a per-soldier cost estimate
of $215,000 annually. The force could be gradually reduced as the Iraqi
economy and security situation improved. But at least 5,000 U.S. troops
would have to stay in Iraq for five to 10 years.
The hearings have been notable for the lack of serious opposition to the
idea of an invasion.
''If the right case is made, I think (Bush) would get an overwhelmingly
positive response to it,'' said the committee chairman, Sen. Joseph Biden,
D-Del.
The Sadat Peace Foundation, a moderate Arab group that promotes Mideast
peace, criticized Biden on Thursday for holding a debate that ''seeks to
rubber-stamp the president's policy on Iraq.''
Meanwhile, the Iraqi government invited the chief United Nations weapons
inspector to Baghdad, hinting that inspections could be renewed after four
years.
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