- If Iraq strikes at Israel with non-conventional weapons,
causing massive casualties among the civilian population, Israel could
respond with a nuclear retaliation that would eradicate Iraq as a country.
This grave assessment, from American intelligence, was presented last week
to the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
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- During the 1991 Gulf War, then U.S. defense secretary
Richard Cheney, now vice-president, told CNN that Israel could respond
with nuclear weapons to an Iraqi strike that included the use of chemical
weapons. This assessment has only been strengthened since then, because
according to all the signs, Iraq now has biological weapons that could
cause mass casualties.
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- According to one assessment, military-grade biological
weapons can be almost as lethal as a nuclear bomb.
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- The U.S. intelligence assessments include an analysis
of possible Israeli responses. The lowest probability is that Israel would
respond initially with a conventional military retaliation if it is slightly
harmed, and would add a warning that a non-conventional response was possible
if the Iraqi attacks on the Israeli civilian population continued.
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- The possibility of Israel using nuclear weapons against
Iraq appears in a document submitted by military expert Dr. Anthony Cordesman,
a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, to the
Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Presumably, the document is based,
in part, on official administration assessments.
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- In the worst case scenario, writes Cordesman, Israel
could face an existential threat to important urban areas such as Tel Aviv
or Haifa. Under such conditions, it would threaten nuclear retaliation
against Iraqi cities and military forces to cease the [Iraqi] attack.
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- If the Iraqi attack were to continue, and there was a
lethal biological strike on an Israeli city, Israel would certainly respond
with nuclear strikes against Iraqi cities that were not yet in the hands
of American forces, Cordesman says. Such an Israeli reaction could destroy
Iraq as a state.
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- Based on this assessment and the possibility of an Israeli
retaliation in the event of an Iraqi strike, it is presumed that the United
States will, at the earliest stages, make a special effort to neutralize
any possible use of Scud and El Hussein rockets that Iraq positions in
its western regions, as it did in the Gulf War, for a more convenient launching
site for attacks against Israel. During discussions in Washington, Israeli
representatives asked the United States to take action against the missiles
in western Iraq.
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- The Americans know that Iraq is not depending only on
long-range missiles in its plans for using chemical or biological weapons
against its enemies, including Israel. As part of its preparations, Iraq
has also been working on developing pilotless planes. Unlike the usual
development of drones used primarily for intelligence gathering purposes,
the Iraqis are working on normal-sized planes loaded with chemical or biological
weapons and intended to be flown by remote control. They are working on
an Eastern European training plane and on a version of the MiG-21. Both
planes have been tested.
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- http://www.haaretzdaily.com
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