- (Reuters) -- Former chief UN arms inspector Richard Butler
said on Thursday his biggest fear was that Israel will be drawn into a
war against Iraq and use its nuclear weapons.
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- If the United States and its allies wage war on Baghdad,
Iraqi President Saddam Hussein could raise the stakes by attacking Israel,
possibly igniting another Arab-Israeli war, Butler told a business conference
in Hong Kong.
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- "The prime minister of Israel has said it will not
be restrained, that it will respond (if Iraq attacks it)," Butler
said.
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- "My deepest fear in that context, if that occurs
and the war escalates, is that Israel will use its nuclear weapons.
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- "If that happens, the world would have been changed
beyond recognition, and I would fear that if that happens the state of
Israel would cease to exist."
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- Butler stressed repeatedly that he believed the rest
of the world had every reason to bring Saddam back under the law and even
remove him from office.
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- He dismissed Iraq's offer to allow the resumption of
UN arms inspections as "a stalling tactic".
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- "That letter (to the UN) does not do the one thing
that it was supposed to do, which was to give an absolute guarantee that
if inspectors return to Iraq, they will be able to do their jobs unfettered,"
Butler said.
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- U.S. urges against Israeli response if Iraq attacks The
United States will continue to urge Israel to hold its fire in a potential
war with Iraq and believes the willingness to do so will depend on many
factors, such as whether Saddam Hussein attacks with unconventional weapons,
U.S. officials say.
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- The Bush administration, laying ground for a possible
new conflict with Baghdad, has asked Israel in private talks to exercise
the same restraint as during the 1991 Gulf War when it did not retaliate
against attacks by 39 Iraqi Scud missiles.
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- "The Defense Department doesn't want anyone else
in its airspace" in the event of a war, a senior U.S. official said.
Israeli officials have replied that Israel reserved the right to strike
back if the Iraqi leader launched Scud missiles at its cities in response
to a possible U.S. military action. Foreign Minister Shimon Peres has said
his country would coordinate its response with the United States.
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- U.S. officials told Reuters they did not consider Israel
had made a final decision about retaliating and that Washington would discuss
the issue with Israel further. "Their position is retaliation but
it's subject to revision until the moment they take action," one U.S.
official said.
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- "The decision will be affected by the conditions
at the time -- by what kind of attack they sustain, what we are doing,
what the level of regional cooperation" is by Arab states in any potential
anti-Saddam operation, he said.
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- "My sense is that it's still early days in U.S.-Israel
discussion. It's one thing to talk about it now when it's theoretical.
It's another to talk as military action is unfolding," he added.
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- Britain published a dossier this week that reported Iraq
could launch a chemical or biological weapon at 45 minutes' notice and
produce nuclear weapons in one or two years if it obtained essential components
from abroad.
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- Israel was pressured by the United States during the
Gulf War not to rock an Arab coalition that supported the U.S.-led military
campaign to oust Iraqi invasion forces from Kuwait. Peres said it was different
now "because there is no Arab coalition" supporting a new U.S.-led
attack on Iraq.
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- While Arab countries have voiced opposition to new military
action against Iraq, many U.S. officials believe key Arab countries ultimately
will side with Washington and provide logistical help and other assistance
needed.
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- There are concerns that if Israel joined the fray with
a retaliatory attack on Iraq, the Arab world would rise up against Israel,
undermining the focus on Baghdad and increasing the risks to the Jewish
state. U.S. officials say they understand the pressures Israel faces to
defend its people and not look weak in a neighborhood of adversaries. Some
Israelis believe their restraint a decade ago emboldened their enemies.
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- If Saddam were to attack Israel with chemical or biological
weapons, instead of the conventional weapons he used in 1991, Israel may
feel it has to retaliate, U.S. officials said.
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- But if Saddam attacks with conventional arms, Israel
might be able to absorb the blow. In 1991, the Scud attacks produced relatively
few Israeli casualties. With biological or chemical arms, the casualty
figures could be much greater.
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- U.S. officials said there was a question about whether
Iraq would even use its diminished Scud stockpile on Israel. Arms experts
say Iraq may have several dozen Scuds. Unlike in 1991, when the goal was
forcing Iraqi's invading forces out of Kuwait, the goal of a new war would
be to depose Saddam and he may decide he needs to use his arsenal against
the United States, instead of Israel, U.S. officials said.
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- According to Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, the Bush team
had promised that Israel would receive advance warning of any U.S. military
action. The New York Times said Washington had told Israel it would mount
an intensive campaign to destroy missile launchers in western Iraq with
a range to hit Israel.
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