- KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters) -
The world's growing population and overfishing will mean around one billion
people in developing countries will face shortages of fish, their most
important source of protein, within 20 years.
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- According to analysis released by the Malaysia-based
WorldFish Center and the International Food Policy Research Institute,
only strong growth in fish farms will save the world from an even more
critical situation,
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- The study estimated that fish currently accounts for
around seven percent of global food supplies and was the primary source
of animal protein for one-sixth of the world's six billion people.
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- WorldFish said in a statement released ahead of an international
conference in Penang on November 3 that some fish species will disappear
from markets and the quality of seafood will decline -- and it also predicted
increasing disputes between countries over fishing grounds.
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- It said the decline in catches from the oceans will have
a serious impact on food security, nutrition and income levels for people
in developing countries in the next two decades.
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- "Fish is the fastest growing source of food in the
developing world yet demand greatly exceeds supply and the problem is growing,"
Dr. Meryl Williams, Director-General of the center, said in the statement.
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- "Almost three-quarters of the 130 million tons extracted
in 2000 came from fish stocks already depleted, over-fished or fully exploited."
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- With 90 million more mouths to feed a year, fish stocks
could not cope after 50 years in which average per capita consumption of
fish has almost doubled.
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- Aquaculture, or fish farming, offered a partial solution
and under the study's most likely scenario, global production will rise
1.5 percent annually until 2020.
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- Two-thirds of the growth will come from aquaculture which
will provide 41 percent of total food production by then -- up from 31
percent five years ago.
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- Economists reckon the fishing industry's inability to
keep pace with demand will result in prices rising anywhere between 4 and
16 percent by 2020 at best, and in a worst case scenario by 26 to 70 percent.
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- The conference will be attended by policymakers, scientists,
industry leaders and non government organizations from 40 countries.
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