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Faltering US Retail Sales
A Grim Holiday Omen
By Pedro Nicolaci da Costa
12-10-2


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Sales at U.S. chain stores faltered last week as consumers, worried by a weak economy and scarce jobs, stayed away from shopping malls, while icy weather in parts of the country also chilled sentiment.
 
The drop was seen as a worrying omen for the remainder of the crucial holiday shopping season, which accounts for over one quarter of retailers' yearly revenues, analysts said.
 
Chain store sales plunged 2.3 percent in the week to Dec. 7 from the previous week -- the sharpest such fall in two years -- after a 0.3 percent gain in the preceding week, the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi and UBS Warburg said in a joint report.
 
Meanwhile sales, according to Instinet Research's weekly Redbook report, grew 0.6 percent in the first week of December compared with the same November period but were below most retailers' plans for the start of the month.
 
"'It's beginning to look at lot like Christmas,' as the saying goes, but unfortunately, right now, it is looking a lot like Christmas 2000, which was a dismal season," Mike Niemira, senior economist at BTM, said in the report.
 
"You worry about these parallels," Niemira told Reuters.
 
Last Friday, the government reported that 40,000 Americans lost their jobs in November, raising the national unemployment rate to 6 percent from 5.7 percent in October.
 
Some analysts cautioned chain store sales reports do not account for online sales which, while still a nascent market, are growing rapidly.
 
A report published on Tuesday by comScore Networks, a research firm that focuses on online spending patterns, showed U.S. consumers spent a record $2 billion online during the post-Thanksgiving week, a 34 percent jump from last year.
 
"If the brick and mortar guys are looking around for customers, they may be home online," said Peter Kastner, chief research officer at Aberdeen Group, a market research firm based in Boston.
 
He predicted that online sales would grow around 15 percent this holiday season compared to last, while sales at retail stores are only set to expand about 2 percent.
 
BTM's sales index, which reflects overall sales volume, fell to 392.8 on the week, the lowest reading in a year, from 402.0 in the prior week.
 
"Retailers described the week as a lull that began over the weekend after a hectic (for some) post-Thanksgiving surge," the Redbook report said.
 
The Bank-of-Tokyo Mitsubishi and UBS Warburg Weekly Chain Store Sales Snapshot looks at sales on a week-to-week basis and is compiled from seven major discount, department and chain stores across the country that report their weekly results.
 
The weekly Redbook Retail Sales Average, released by Instinet Research, is a sales-weighted average of year-on-year sales growth at discount, department and chain stores open at least a year. Seasonally adjusted month-to-month changes are derived from dollar sales estimates.
 
Copyright © 2002 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Reuters content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters. Reuters shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.





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