- Many in Israel have worried recently that Hezbollah will
exploit a United States war on Iraq by launching strikes at Israeli targets
in the north. And it has become increasingly clear in recent weeks that
this fear is mutual; a series of declarations, leaks and media briefings
in Israel have aroused genuine worries among Lebanese about the prospect
of an Israeli attack on their country.
-
- Lebanon officials and Hezbollah suspect that Israel and
the U.S. are preparing the ground for a major offensive north of Israel's
border. In particular, the Lebanese interpret accusations about links between
Hezbollah and Osama bin Laden's Al-Qaida, as possible attempts to set the
stage for such an Israeli military operation.
-
- Meanwhile, Israeli officials do not appear to have a
clear-cut view concerning links between Hezbollah and Al-Qaida. Whereas
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon spoke last week about operational cooperation
between the two organizations, in recent days Israeli security professionals
have alluded to "assessments" and indications pointing to ideological,
not strategic, cooperation between bin Laden's organization and the South
Lebanese Shi'ite group.
-
- The root of the uncertainty in the Israeli appraisals
stems from difficulty of classifying Al-Qaida operatives. Over the years,
Al-Qaida furnished different levels of training and patronage to militants,
so it is often difficult to determine the extent to which a particular
operative can be defined as an Al-Qaida man.
-
- In the aftermath of the fighting in Afghanistan, Al-Qaida
"refugees" streamed into Lebanon's Bekaa region, as well as into
the West Bank and Jordan. At one stage, Israeli security officials possessed
contradictory information concerning cooperation between Hezbollah and
Al-Qaida.
-
- Lebanese commentator Qassam Qasir, who has close ties
to Hezbollah, wrote in the Al-Mustaqbal journal that various Lebanese organizations
which oppose Israel have in recent years spurned Al-Qaida's efforts to
forge links with them. Qasir based his report on "sources in Lebanon,"
apparently members of Hezbollah.
-
- According to the sources in the report, divisions between
Al-Qaida and Hezbollah stem from what the latter organization's secretary-general
Hassan Nasrallah terms differences of "priorities." However,
these sources say, the recent attack on Israeli targets in Mombasa Kenya
stirred support for Al-Qaida among "popular circles" in Lebanon;
this grass-roots support is likely to promote future ideological and operational
links between bin Laden's group and Lebanese organizations that oppose
Israel, the sources said.
-
- Some Israeli security experts believe that Hezbollah
will be very cautious about creating ties with Al-Qaida, understanding
that such links would create a complex web of ties in Lebanon, Syria and
Iran.
-
- This week Iran's Foreign Minister Kamal Harazi visited
Lebanon, where he met Hezbollah's secretary-general in Beirut. Israeli
intelligence officials believe that this trip could be part of a Syrian
and Iranian effort to restrain Hezbollah; neither country, the officials
believe, wants trouble on Israel's northern border at this stage. In recent
months, Harazi has been trying to arrange economic talks between Iran and
the European Union, and these talks are to begin today in Brussels. Instability
caused by Hezbollah on the Lebanese border would not contribute positively
to such talks.
-
- The talks represent the most significant European attempt
to develop economic cooperation with Iran since the country's 1979 Islamic
Revolution. The talks, which will move next Monday to Tehran, will be conducted
on two separate tracks. In one room, participants will discuss the possibility
of strengthened economic relations with Iran. In another room, officials
will discuss Europe's demands from Iran with regard to terror, a change
in Tehran's attitude toward the Israeli-Arab conflict and human rights
in Iran.
-
- "We're not sitting down to talk so that Iran can
sell more pistachio nuts," a European ambassador said on Tuesday in
Tehran. "There must be progress in the second room, if there is to
be progress in the first room."
-
- http://www.haaretzdaily.com/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtm
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