- BRUSSELS (Reuters) - France
and Germany seem bent on a test of strength with the United States and
Britain at the United Nations in a bid to deny President George W. Bush
a resolution enabling war against Iraq, diplomats said on Tuesday.
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- The move would be a further escalation of the two European
powers' efforts to obstruct the march to war, which has triggered a crisis
in transatlantic relations, rocking hallowed institutions such as NATO
and the European Union.
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- Officials in Berlin and Paris said they believed they
have enough votes in the Security Council to thwart any resolution authorising
the use of force after U.N. weapons inspectors report on Friday on their
latest talks in Baghdad.
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- Bush has made clear his patience is fast running out
and military action could be only a few weeks away.
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- To pass, a U.N. resolution requires nine positive votes
on the 15-member Security Council and no veto by any of the five permanent
members -- the United States, Russia, China, Britain and France.
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- A senior German government source said 11 Council members
supported the Franco-German position of extending weapons inspections and
giving them more resources.
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- Only the United States, Britain, Spain and Bulgaria backed
Bush's line that "the game is up" for Saddam, he asserted.
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- "The rest of the members of the Security Council
support the position of the German government," he said.
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- NO MAJORITY FOR WAR
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- A French official was more cautious, suggesting up to
nine Council members currently opposed military action -- China, Russia,
France, Germany, Syria, Mexico, Pakistan, Cameroon and Guinea. Two others,
Angola and Chile, appeared to be leaning more towards the United States,
he said.
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- "The Americans and the British certainly don't have
nine votes for war," the French source said.
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- Diplomats said the Franco-German challenge, if sustained,
could drive the United States to bypass the Security Council and wage war
with a narrow "coalition of the willing".
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- That would severely undermine British Prime Minister
Tony Blair, who has backed the U.N. route while remaining loyal to Washington,
and could cause a lasting transatlantic rift.
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- British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw warned last week
that if the United Nations did not confront the challenge from Iraq, it
could become as irrelevant as the League of Nations which collapsed after
failing to halt the rise of Nazi Germany.
-
- The French official said attempts by U.S. Defence Secretary
Donald Rumsfeld to isolate France and Germany had backfired with public
and diplomatic support for preventing war swelling.
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- But he acknowledged that positions in the Security Council
were not set in stone and members would be influenced by what chief weapons
inspectors Hans Blix and Mohamed ElBaradei report.
-
- Both U.N. officials have noted positive developments
in Iraq's approach to their mission to rid it of suspected weapons of mass
destruction, but demanded more active cooperation.
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- France and Germany have hardened their resistance as
the Bush administration has tried to turn up the heat on them.
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- On Monday, they vetoed an attempt to start planning at
NATO for protecting Turkey in case of a war in Iraq, an almost unprecedented
act of defiance in the U.S.-led defence alliance.
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- FRENCH SHIFT
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- Diplomats said France's line had shifted from pressing
the United States to obtain U.N. authority while keeping open the possibility
of backing military action -- a strategy it pursued successfully last year
-- to seeking all-out to prevent war.
-
- Asked why Paris's stance had hardened, one well-placed
diplomat said: "The debate has ceased to be rational. It is about
the frustration of not wanting to live in a world where someone decides
everything in our place."
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- Gallic resistance to American hegemony has a long tradition,
and President Jacques Chirac has public opinion and his key German partner
on his side.
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- But until last week, conventional wisdom in the French
and European establishment had been that Paris would rally behind the United
States at the last minute, ensuring a say in the post-war disposition in
the Middle East.
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- If it sticks to its guns, France risks the prolonged
fury of a vengeful United States, and could jeopardise the principle of
the primacy of the U.N. Security Council in matters of war and peace which
it cherishes.
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- "France could be a big loser in this," the
diplomat said. "But so are all the other institutions. NATO is in
the gutter with a bullet in its head. The EU is in disarray. The U.N. could
be the next victim in this game of hardball."
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