- CAMP DOHA, Kuwait - While
the Bush administration keeps warning that time is running out for Iraqi
leader Saddam Hussein to disarm, the U.S. troops, tanks and supplies needed
to make war against Baghdad won't be ready for a possible invasion until
mid-March at the earliest.
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- After weeks of deployment orders, an estimated 60,000
troops are in the Persian Gulf region and another 100,000 are due to follow
them.
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- But the U.S. ground presence in Kuwait now is at less
than 20,000 soldiers, a small fraction of those required to invade Iraq.
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- Privately, U.S. military officers in Kuwait voice skepticism
over an assessment from the Pentagon that American forces will be ready
for war by late February if President Bush orders military action.
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- Some retired officers and military experts agree.
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- "You could conceivably be two months or more away
in order to satisfy every ground commander," said retired Gen. Wesley
K. Clark, the former NATO commander who oversaw the 1999 allied effort
that ousted Serbian forces from Kosovo. "The force isn't there yet."
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- Though the Pentagon's war plans remain secret, a number
of senior officials have indicated that an invasion force to be massed
largely in Kuwait probably would consist of three heavy Army divisions,
a light division, one Marine Expeditionary Force and a contingent of British
troops and armor.
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- So far, only the Army's 3rd Infantry Division, which
has been training in Kuwait since last spring, has significant numbers
of troops, tanks and other armored vehicles on the ground. The last of
the division's 19,000 soldiers and their equipment should be in place and
combat-ready by mid-February.
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- Two squadrons of cargo ships began unloading tanks, armored
vehicles and other equipment and supplies for the 60,000-man 1st Marine
Expeditionary Force a little more than 10 days ago. Marine Corps officers
describe the arrival of personnel and equipment as "robust and continuous,"
though they decline to say when they expect their forces to be ready for
action.
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- The Army announced eight days ago that its 4th Infantry
Division at Fort Hood, Texas, would spearhead a 37,000-member task force
as part of the buildup. But the division is still loading its equipment
aboard ships in Corpus Christi, Texas, which could take another week or
more. Transport by ship to the Persian Gulf takes about 18 to 21 days,
according to GlobalSecurity.org, a Washington-area research group that
tracks military and intelligence issues.
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- Three other Army divisions, the 1st Calvary, also at
Fort Hood, the 101st Airborne at Fort Campbell, Ky., and the 1st Armored,
based in Germany, haven't received orders to deploy but could as early
as this week.
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- The Navy has drawn up plans to deploy as many as seven
of its 12 carrier battle groups. But Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld
hasn't yet decided how many carriers will be in the final battle plans,
said a senior Defense Department official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
The aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt will head to the eastern Mediterranean
within the next week, the official said.
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- The 4th Infantry Division's helicopters, artillery, Humvees
and other vehicles can be transported to the region by C-5 and C-17 cargo
jets, but it would take as many as 500 sorties to deploy the entire division,
according to military officials familiar with the 4th Infantry's logistics.
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- Such a massive deployment would further be complicated
because about 25 percent of the C-5 fleet, which first took to the skies
in 1970, is down at any given time because of repairs and maintenance.
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- "It really has been a hurry-up-and-wait kind of
process, in that a lot of troops have gotten deployment notices in the
last couple of weeks, but it's going to take a long time to get their equipment
there," said Patrick Garret, a military analyst for GlobalSecurity.org.
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- It takes roughly 30 to 45 days to deploy a tank-heavy
Army division overseas, according to Clark. Once on the ground, troops
have to "marry up" with their equipment, move to forward staging
areas and get organized. Troops must be trained. Commanders have to draw
up battle plans and carry out rehearsals. This all can take weeks even
under optimal conditions.
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- Still, "there's no question of the outcome,"
said retired Gen. Barry McCaffrey, who led the 24th Infantry Division in
the famous "left hook" that cut off the Iraqi occupation army
in Kuwait during the 1991 Persian Gulf War.
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- McCaffrey thinks the preponderance of the ground attack
forces could be in the region within 30 days. As they were preparing for
battle, Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps jets could begin bombing targets
in and around Baghdad and other strategic sites. Special operations troops
could attack Scud missile sites and suspected chemical and biological facilities.
Other efforts could focus on psychological operations to convince Iraqi
soldiers to surrender.
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- But McCaffrey admits that generals, by their very nature,
are cautious: "If left to the generals, we would still be there another
year" before attacking.
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- "If I was commanding a division that was going in,
I would be fighting to get the entire team on the ground and let them acclimatize
for a month before commencing operations," he said.
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- http://www.twincities.com/mld/pioneerpress/5043605.htm
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