- Senior aides to President George W. Bush say he faces
a humiliating defeat before the United Nations Security Council next week.
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- And signs emerged today that the U.S. may withdraw the
resolution from security council consideration.
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- Secretary of State Colin Powell, fresh from his latest
round of meetings with representatives of countries on the Security Council,
delivered the bad news to Bush on Monday.
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- "You will lose, Mr. President," Powell told
Bush. "You will lose badly and the United States will be humiliated
on the world stage."
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- Powell told Bush he has only four of the nine votes needed
for approval of a second resolution. As a result, some White House advisors
are now urging the President to back off his tough stance on war with Iraq
and give UN weapons inspectors more time.
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- "We have no other choice," admits one Bush
advisor. "We don't have the votes. We don't have the support."
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- Presidential spokesman Ari Fleisher, in today's press
briefing, appeared to signal a U.S. retreat from demanding a vote
next week, saying "the president has said he believes that a vote
is desirable. It is not mandatory."
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- John Negroponte, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations,
said that while it is too early for the United States to withdraw the resolution,
"we haven't crossed that bridge," Negroponte said.
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- Powell told Bush on Monday that Turkey's refusal to allow
U.S. troops to stage at the country's border with Iraq doomed any chance
of consensus at the UN.
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- "Many were watching Turkey," Powell told Bush.
"Had they agreed, it might have helped us sway critical votes."
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- Powell met privately today with Mexico Foreign Minister
Luis Ernesto Derbez to try and "parse" new language
for the second resolution to satisfy a Mexican request to modify the text
and extend the deadline for weapons inspections.
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- "It (the meeting) did not produce results,"
a Powell spokesman said afterwards.
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- Publicly, Powell is leaving the door open for the U.S.
to withdraw the resolutions saying, telling a German television interviewer:
"At the start of next week we'll decide when, depending on what
we have heard, we will vote on a resolution. It will be a difficult vote
for the U.N. Security Council."
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- Some Bush aides now admit privately that the President,
for all his tough talk, may have to back down and postpone his plans to
invade Iraq in the near future, delaying any invasion until April or May
at the earliest.
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- "The vote in Turkey fucked things up big time,"
grumbles one White House aide. "It pushes our timetable back. On the
other hand, it might give us a chance to save face."
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- "Saving face" could mean backing away from
a showdown with the UN Security Council next week and agreeing to let the
weapons inspection process run its course.
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- "The arrest of Khalid Shaikh Mohammed gives us some
breathing room," says a Bush strategist. "We can concentrate
on the favorable publicity generated by the arrest and the valuable intelligence
we have gained from that event."
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- Mohammed, arrested in Pakistan, masterminded the 9-11
terrorist attacks. CIA agents found computer files, memos and other materials
which pointed to plans for new attacks against the U.S.
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- "The prudent thing to do would be to let Iraq cool
off on a back burner and concentrate on Mohammed," says Republican
strategist Arnold Beckins. "Saddam isn't going anywhere. There's too
much heat on him right now for him to pull something."
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- Right now, only the U.S., Britain and Spain favor immediate
military action against Iraq. With most of the other allies lining up against
the U.S., Bush faces both a diplomatic and public relations nightmare if
he proceeds against Hussein without UN backing.
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- "We've always needed an exit strategy," admits a
White House aide. "Circumstances have given us one. Perhaps we shouldn't
ignore it."
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