- President George Bush has at least one achievement to
his credit in his war against Saddam Hussein. He has transformed Saddam
into a heroic champion in the eyes of many in the region and might elevate
his status into that of a mythological figure if he succeeds in killing
or capturing more British and American soldiers and in turning Baghdad
into an Arab and Islamic Stalingrad.
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- It is now clear that events are not going according to
the plans prepared in Washington and London and that Saddam's strength
and the Iraqi people's reaction to the war were misjudged. Saddam has outfoxed
his enemies. He has managed to surprise all in Washington, London and Arab
capitals with his ability to absorb the strikes of the first days of confrontation,
to turn the psychological war directed against him into a source of self-confidence,
and to manipulate America's overwhelming military superiority in his favour.
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- An Iraqi official told me that, while the British and
Americans listened to inaccurate information supplied by the Iraqi opposition
on the supposed weakness of the Iraqi regime and the great willingness
of the population and army to rebel, Saddam and his military officers were
busy studying the defence tactics adopted during the Second World War and
Vietnam, and planning similar tactics to counter US strategies that were
implemented in Afghanistan and in the first Gulf war in 1991.
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- Saddam is betting on prolonging the war and on being
aided both by weather and a shift in world opinion to his benefit.
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- The timing of the launch of the war has worked in his
favour. The past five days have witnessed sandstorms that have impeded
the allied troops' progress towards Baghdad, while recent plentiful agricultural
crops have protected Iraqis from hunger.
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- The coming months will bring a rise in temperatures that
can reach 50C. Underneath American and British combat gear and chemical
and biological weapons masks, the temperatures may well reach 70C, and
this will restrict the troops' ability to fight. Increasing the number
of American troops by an additional 100,000 soldiers will be presented
by Saddam to his people and to the Arab and Islamic worlds as proof of
his victory.
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- Perhaps the most outstanding of Saddam's psychological
and moral victories has been the shift in his image from evil tyrant to
hero in both the Arab and Muslim worlds. His picture and his country's
flag are now raised in the region's capitals in demonstrations to support
him.
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- Saddam sees his steadfastness as a victory and believes
his chances of survival to have improved significantly since the beginning
of the war. Shia clerics in Najaf, Beirut and Qum in Iran have all issued
fatwas prohibiting co-operation with British and American forces, which
they describe as acts of treason. The fatwas also regard actively fighting
the allied forces as a moral and religious duty. In practical terms, this
will prevent a split in the ranks of the Iraqi military and prevent the
mass surrender of troops.
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- The fatwas will also guarantee against the revolt of
the Shias of Iraq, who have been considered so far as Saddam's most dedicated
enemies, and will mean that the Shias will not dance in the streets at
the sight of American troops.
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- The allies committed a dangerous mistake when they relied
on information supplied by the Iraqi opposition regarding the state of
affairs within Iraq.
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- They made an even bigger mistake when they spoke of installing
a US military governor over Iraq, as this will serve only to stir up patriotic
feelings among Iraqis and encourage them to bury their differences with
Saddam and unite forces to repel an American occupation. Raising the American
flag over Umm Qasr, albeit only briefly, convinced Iraqis that the war
was one of occupation and not liberation.
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- All evidence points to the frightening possibility that
a post-Saddam Iraq will not be a model of stability and security, but a
country ruled by chaos. The allied forces have allowed Turkish troops to
enter Iraq from the north and the Kurds of northern Iraq might see this
as a betrayal on the part of the US. The Kurds were let down twice before
by the Americans; a third time might push some of the Kurds into supporting
Saddam and fighting the Turks and Americans together.
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- Saddam's increased popularity in the Arab world might
encourage volunteers from neighbouring Arab countries to steal through
the borders to fight alongside the Iraqi militias, as happened during the
Afghan war against Russia. Perhaps the most dangerous outcome of the war
on Iraq would be the possibility of al-Qaeda and its leader, Osama bin
Laden, relocating to Iraq if the country descends into pandemonium after
the fall of its central government. There is convincing evidence that dozens
of Islamic radical volunteers from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries
sympathetic to al-Qaeda and bin Laden have begun entering Iraq through
its borders with Syria, Iran and Jordan.
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- The post-Saddam war in Iraq might be even more difficult
than the present one and incur heavier damage. The overthrow of Saddam
could turn all Iraqis and Arabs against the US and Britain, and subject
the allies to a long and bloody war.
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- The Iraqi victories thus far, though small, have given
Iraqis and Arabs a great moral boost and have helped to restore the sense
of dignity they lost when they were defeated in their wars with Israel
and with the US during the 1991 Gulf war. They have also succeeded in forging
a historical marriage between the secularism of Saddam's regime and the
fundamentalism of bin Laden and al-Qaeda.
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- Abdel Bari Atwan is editor of the London-based Arab newspaper,
al Quds
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