- WASHINGTON (AFP) - Stiffening
Iraqi resistance as US forces close in on Baghdad prompted questions Tuesday
about the vulnerability of the US strategy to use precision air power and
a smaller, fast moving ground force to topple Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.
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- "Shock, Awe and Overconfidence" is how Ralph
Peters, a retired military officer and respected analyst summed up the
view of many in an opinion piece in the Washington Post.
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- "Most wars begin under the spell of prevailing theories
that are swept away by the realities of combat," Peters wrote.
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- "Now we are trying to prosecute a war according
to another military theory, 'Shock and Awe'. Again, bold claims have led
to disappointments redeemed only by the skill and determination of our
military," he said.
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- The dramatic armored thrust to the fringe of the Baghdad
region has left long US supply lines vulnerable to attack, analysts warned,
even as US forces face their toughest test in the urban environs of the
Iraqi capital.
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- Armed Iraqi fighters dressed as civilians have mounted
fierce resistance in Basra and An Nasiriyah, where attacks on convoys killed
10 Marines and resulted in the capture of at least a dozen others.
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- At least 11 US soldiers are confirmed to have been killed
in the past week and several are missing.
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- US military commanders insisted Tuesday that the campaign
was on track and even ahead of schedule, and that the fighting encountered
so far was expected.
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- But optimistic predictions that Saddam's regime could
be overwhelmed by a massive bombing campaign combined with simultaneous
blows by swiftly moving ground forces have given way to more cautious assessments.
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- "I think our plan from the beginning was not designed
to make it in two days. It was designed to be rapid, synergistic, but to
follow a time line. And we had every expectation that the regime would
not disappear and crumble," Air Force Major General Victor Renuart
told reporters at Central Command headquarters in Qatar.
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- Military analysts say the Iraqis have found weaknesses
in the plan and used them to inflict casualties and drive up the political
cost of the invasion to the United States and Britain.
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- "The plan of action the US Central Command has employed
is a very bold plan. It really only is using two big American ground divisions
and a third smaller British ground division plus the 101st Airborne Division,"
said Kenneth Pollack, an analyst at the Brookings Institution.
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- "This is only a force big enough to defeat the Iraqi
armed forces and to take down Saddam's regime. But it is a force that is
not big enough to do a very good job of providing route security for the
very long supply lines," he said.
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- So Iraqi forces are targeting the supply lines, sniping
at troops and turning the cities in the south into dangerous nests of resistance.
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- Their use of civilian garb and vehicles has caused US
forces to regard all civilians as potential risks, further undermining
the US goal of avoiding civilian casualties and winning over the local
populace.
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- "Our attempt to baby-talk Iraq's elite military
forces into surrender was humane in purpose and politically attractive,
and it might have minimized Iraqi casualties. But it delayed essential
attacks on Iraq's military capabilities," said Peters.
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- "This encouraged at least some Iraqis in uniform
to believe they had a chance to fight and win. Now our forces advancing
on Baghdad face the possibility of more serious combat than would otherwise
have been the case," he said.
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- The fighting on the road to Baghdad, magnified by instantaneous
media coverage, likely foreshadows an even bloodier battle for Baghdad
with much greater risks to civilians and higher political costs for the
United States and its allies.
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- "Our advantages in terms of long range attack, our
air advantages, our advantages in terms of maneuverability -- all of the
things that allowed us to prevail in the Gulf War -- Saddam believes are
going to be obviated by his new strategy of digging in the Republican Guard
divisions around Baghdad and making us slug it out with them," said
Pollack.
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