- A budding coalition of conservative hawks, Jewish organizations
and Iranian monarchists is pressing the White House to step up American
efforts to bring about regime change in Iran.
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- For now, President Bush's official stance is to encourage
the Iranian people to push the mullah regime aside themselves, but observers
believe that the policy is not yet firm, and that has created an opportunity
for activists. Neoconservatives advocating regime change in Tehran through
diplomatic pressure - and even covert action - appear to be winning the
debate within the administration, several knowledgeable observers said.
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- "There is a pact emerging between hawks in the administration,
Jewish groups and Iranian supporters of Reza Pahlavi [the exiled son of
the former shah of Iran] to push for regime change," said Pooya Dayanim,
president of the Iranian-Jewish Public Affairs Committee in Los Angeles
and a hawk on Iran.
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- The emerging coalition is reminiscent of the buildup
to the invasion of Iraq, with Pahlavi possibly assuming the role of Iraqi
exile opposition leader Ahmed Chalabi, a favorite of neoconservatives.
Like Chalabi, Pahlavi has good relations with several Jewish groups. He
has addressed the board of the hawkish Jewish Institute for National Security
Affairs and gave a public speech at the Simon Wiesenthal Center's Museum
of Tolerance in Los Angeles, and met with Jewish communal leaders.
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- Pahlavi also has had quiet contacts with top Israeli
officials. During the last two years, according to a knowledgeable source,
he has met privately with Prime Minister Sharon and former prime minister
Benjamin Netanyahu, as well as Israel's Iranian-born president, Moshe Katsav.
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- In another parallel to the pre-invasion debate over Iraq,
an intense policy battle is heating up between the State and Defense departments
over what to do in Iran.
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- "The president, the vice president and, even more
so, the Pentagon support regime change," said a source who follows
the internal debate closely. "But State does not want to meddle in
Iran, so you have a big fight right now within the administration."
-
- As was the case during the Iraq debate, Weekly Standard
editor William Kristol is leading the charge for a more aggressive policy
on Iran. In the magazine's May 12 issue, he wrote an editorial pushing
for covert action and other steps to trigger regime change in Tehran.
-
- Advocates of a more restrained policy note that American
and Iranian officials meet regularly, but say that the disappointing performance
of the reformist camp in Iran has undercut their efforts to promote American
engagement with Iran.
-
- "Some people at the Pentagon have concluded that
the reformists are just mullahs with smiling faces and that regime change
is the only way," said Gary Sick, director of the Middle East Institute
at Columbia University and an advocate of engaging Iran. "They believe
that Iran is ripe for revolution, but I think this is highly questionable."
-
- Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and his deputies Paul
Wolfowitz and Douglas Feith are known to support regime change, although
they have been much less vocal about Iran than Iraq.
-
- At a lower level, two sources said, Iran expert Michael
Rubin is now working for the Pentagon's "special plans" office,
a small unit set up to gather intelligence on Iraq, but apparently also
working on Iran. Previously a researcher at the Washington Institute for
Near East policy, Rubin has vocally advocated regime change in Tehran.
He did respond to e-mails seeking comment.
-
- Intelligence sources have complained about what they
describe as the tendency of the secretive office to color intelligence
on Iraq according to its hard line. "The office of special plans has
been interviewing people and gathering intelligence on Iran in order to
be ready to support democracy," a hawkish source said. "They
have spent much more time doing that than the State experts on Iran."
-
- Meanwhile, in Congress, Democrat Rep. Tom Lantos of California
is sponsoring a resolution supporting the people of Iran against the regime.
Republican Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas has introduced an amendment
that would set aside $50 million to fund Iranian opposition television
and radio stations in Los Angeles - most of which promote a restoration
of the shah's monarchy - as well as human rights and pro-democracy groups.
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- Supporters of the shah's son, Pahlavi, have been supporting
Brownback's amendment, know as the Iran Democracy Act. So has the main
pro-Israel lobby, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.
-
- "We support efforts to encourage the people of Iran
to cut the regime's ties to terrorism and its pursuit of nuclear weapons,"
said Rebecca Dinar, a spokeswoman for the American Israel Public Affairs
Committee. While Morris Amitay, a former Aipac director and active hawk
on Iran, told the Forward that it would only be natural for Jewish groups
to openly back regime change in Iran, most prefer to keep a low profile
on this issue.
-
- For example, Pahlavi was slated to meet Iranian Jewish
members of Aipac at the group's annual conference this spring. But Aipac
officials, worried that it could be seen as inappropriate, scuttled the
plan, two sources said.
-
- "The Jewish groups are telling Reza that they will
give him private support and help arrange meetings with U.S. officials,"
one of the sources said.
-
- Iranian Jewish groups are playing a key role in forging
the relationship. The Iranian Jewish Public Affairs Committee's Dayanim,
a regular contributor to the National Review Online, has been one of the
most active hawks. He argued that support for Pahlavi among Iranian Americans
may have less to do with deep pro-monarchist feelings than with his status
as the most recognizable opposition figure among immigrants.
-
- Still, Dayanim acknowledged that many Iranian Jews were
"in love with Pahlavi" because they see his father's reign as
a golden era for Jews. Pahlavi has expressed support for democracy while
calling for a referendum restoring the monarchy.
-
- One key Pahlavi supporter who has become popular in Iranian
American circles is former Reagan administration official Michael Ledeen,
now a fellow at the conservative American Enterprise Institute.
-
- In numerous addresses and articles, Ledeen has been arguing
that the mullah regime is on the brink of collapse and that the time has
come for Washington to push it over the edge. He has joined with Amitay,
ex-CIA head James Woolsey, former Reagan administration official Frank
Gaffney, former Senator Paul Simon and oil consultant Rob Sobhani to set
up a group called the Coalition for Democracy in Iran. Several of them
took part May 6 in a one-day American Enterprise Institute conference titled
"The Future of Iran." During the event, Ledeen argued that help
from outside actors was needed to help ignite revolutionary changes in
Iran.
-
- While Ledeen has not called for military action, some
of his declarations appear to suggest that aggressive action could be taken.
-
- Last month, Ledeen gave a speech to a pro-monarchist
crowd in Los Angeles. In the question-and-answer session, he reportedly
said that with $20 million, there could be a "free Iran" - and
that he knew how best to use the money.
-
- Ledeen, who was involved in the Iran-contra scandal but
never charged, declined comment.
-
- Asked about the possibility of covert action, a member
of the Pentagon-linked Defense Policy Board answered with one word: "maybe."
He refused to elaborate.
-
- For additional information on the neoconservatives who
have hijacked the Bush regime and are pushing us to perpetual war, please
access the following URLs:
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- http://www.disinfopedia.org/wiki.phtml?title=Neo-conservative
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- http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/content/2003/20030310_american_dreamers/int_lobe.htm
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- Wary of US (Neoconservatives), India eyes China again:
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- http://www.atimes.com/atimes/south_asia/ed29df03.html
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- This was an excellent article about JINSA/PNAC by Israeli
Uri Avnery:
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- The Night After (by Uri Avnery):
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- http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0304/S00146.htm
-
- This was an excellent article (written by Pepe Escobar)
about the neocons:
-
- This War Brought to You By (written by Pepe Escobar):
-
- http://www.counterpunch.org/escobar03212003.html
-
- Here is an excellent article by Jason Vest for the 'Nation'
as Jason recently mentioned that he has another article about the neocons
appearing in an upcoming June issue of the 'Nation':
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- The Men From JINSA and CSP:
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- http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml?i=20020902&s=vest
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- http://www.forward.com/issues/2003/03.05.16/news2.html
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