- PHILADELPHIA (Reuters) -
With guerrilla-style attacks escalating in Iraq, the United States may
have to begin turning over peacekeeping duties to an international force
within a year, or risk a wider insurgency, military analysts warned on
Wednesday.
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- A wave of attacks that has killed 29 U.S. troops since
President Bush declared major combat operations over on May 1, appears
to stem from a resurgence of Iraqi nationalism among both Sunnis and Shi'ites
in the face of U.S. occupation, said scholars at the U.S. Army War College.
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- "If U.S. forces are still there a year from now,
individuals who suggest the United States is there for bad motives will
feel more comfortable stirring up problems," said W. Andrew Terrill,
research professor at the Carlisle, Pa.-based War College's Strategic Studies
Institute.
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- "Even the (Shi'ites) are saying you need to think
about leaving, and they're the ones we're getting along with at the moment,"
he added.
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- Terrill and fellow scholar Conrad Crane, director of
the War College's Military History Institute, consider Iraq to be the largest
effort at nation-building the U.S. has undertaken since post-war Japan
and Germany.
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- In a joint report issued before U.S. forces invaded Iraq
in March, they advised senior Army staff that U.S. forces could even face
a general uprising if troop presence is not scaled back within 12 months.
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- The British forces who created Iraq in the aftermath
of World War I faced tribal uprisings, terrorist attacks and a jihad proclaimed
from the Shi'ite holy city of Kerbala. The situation stabilized in 1921,
only after the British had suffered about 2,000 casualties.
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- U.S. troops, who some analysts say could remain in Iraq
in some capacity for five to 10 years, could face new dangers once angered
Iraqis realize U.S. authorities would not counter a rebellion with Saddam-style
repression.
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- NEED TO MOVE QUICKLY
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- "That may in fact embolden them," said Terrill,
a former Pentagon intelligence officer. "If you have an expanding
insurgency, it's going to inhibit countries from contributing troops to
an internationalization effort. You want to squeeze the commitments out
of them while you can."
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- That means U.S. authorities need to move quickly to either
set up a national security system run by Iraqis or bring in international
peacekeeping troops from other nations, possibly including Muslim countries
like Pakistan and Bangladesh.
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- "The world is coming to help: that's the message
we have to send," said Crane, who believes U.S. troops have too few
civil affairs and military police officers for non-combat duties that could
help defuse tensions.
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- "We need the help," he added. "Not only
would it give us numbers on the ground but international contingents would
bring in expertise. And Muslim contingents would bring a certain acceptance
and awareness that Western troops don't have."
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- The United States has asked several countries for peacekeeping
assistance, including Pakistan, Bangladesh and India. But few tangible
steps to assemble a large international contingent have occurred up to
now.
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- Crane suggested U.S. authorities could also use assistance
from France and Russia, two countries that openly opposed the U.S. war
in Iraq. "We've worked with them before, and we've meshed well with
them. Obviously, there'd be political hurdles, but they'd be helpful,"
he said.
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