- A cataclysmic warning that the US health system could
be overwhelmed by the growth in the number of elderly Americans suffering
from Alzheimer's disease was made by researchers yesterday.
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- New estimates suggest that the numbers affected by the
degenerative disease, which requires round-the-clock care, will rise to
13.2 million by about 2050 - three times the 4.5 million people affected
today.
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- The increase is much higher than previous estimates made
over a decade ago by the same researchers from the Rush Institute for Healthy
Ageing in Chicago and others. The reason is the rapid ageing of the US
population. The oldest age group - over 85s - is rising much faster than
expected and by 2030 nearly half those affected will be over 85.
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- Sheldon Goldberg, president of the Alzheimer's Association,
which funded the study, said: "If left unchecked it is no exaggeration
to say that Alzheimer's disease will destroy the healthcare system and
bankrupt Medicare and Medicaid."
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- Only by pouring more money into research could a "looming
public health disaster" be averted, he said.
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- While Britain will also see a startling increase in rates
of the disease over the same period, the rise will be less pronounced than
in the US because Europe has an older population than the US, according
to Harry Cayton, chief executive of the Alzheimer's Disease Society in
the UK. He said: "There is absolutely no doubt that the number of
people with Alzheimer's and other dementias is going to grow very dramatically."
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- More than half the money spent by the NHS is already
taken up by the problems of old age. But the rise in UK cases between now
and 2050 was likely to be 150 per cent, Mr Cayton said. "I wouldn't
envisage that our healthcare system would collapse."
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- The study, published in Archives of Neurology, says the
incidence of the disease in the US will rise 27 per cent by 2020; 70 per
cent by 2030 - and soar 300 per cent by 2050.
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- Economic studies have shown that by 2010, Medicare spending
on Alzheimer's will rise to $49.1bn (£31bn) - 54 per cent up on 2000
- and Medicaid spending will rise to $33bn (£21bn), or 80 per cent
higher.
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- Mr Goldberg said: "Our choice is clearer than ever
- either increase funding for research to fend off this looming health
disaster, or sit back and wait for it to overwhelm the healthcare system."
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- © 2003 Independent Digital (UK) Ltd
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- http://news.independent.co.uk/world/americas/story.jsp?story=435143
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