- Since the destruction of the World Trade Centre and the
attack on the Pentagon two years ago, there have been no major terrorist
incidents in the United States. There were the anthrax attacks and a brief
scare about radiological weapons, but the US as a whole has escaped further
atrocities. Some would argue that this means the "war on terror",
proclaimed by President Bush, is being won, even though there are repeated
warnings of attacks in the US and the UK as well as civil defence exercises
such as today's on the London Underground
-
- From a global perspective, however, the picture is very
different. The recent increase in violence and insecurity in Iraq, continuing
unrest and insurgency in Afghanistan and the global activities of al-Qa'ida
and its associates all point to a "war on terror" that is hardly
being won.
-
- Since 9/11, some intended attacks on Western interests
have been intercepted, but many successful attacks have been carried out
across the world, including in Casablanca, Riyadh, Karachi, Islamabad,
Mombasa, Yemen and Bali. These have killed or injured well over 1,000 people,
and there have also been numerous bomb attacks in the Philippines, substantial
paramilitary actions by Chechen rebels and continuing violence in Israel/Palestine
including repeated Israeli assassination attacks and Palestinian suicide
bombs.
-
- Al-Qa'ida and its associates are heavily involved in
most of the actions against Western interests and their level of activity
since 9/11 has actually been higher than in the previous two years. More
generally, there has developed a degree of anti-Americanism across much
of the Arab world and beyond that greatly limits the support for Bush's
counter-terror strategy.
-
- That strategy has already included two costly wars. In
Afghanistan, close to 3,000 civilians died, together with many thousands
of military. In Iraq, both figures are much higher - up to 7,000 civilians
killed in just three weeks of war and as many as twice that number of military.
In both wars serious injuries are numbered in the tens of thousands.
-
- Hamid Karzai's government in Kabul struggles on against
considerable odds and the International Security Assistance Force (Isaf)
has helped to produce a more stable environment in Kabul, but elsewhere
in Afghanistan the warlords remain in control, opium production has increased
and development projects are continually hindered. Nato may now be running
Isaf, but the US repeatedly blocks any attempts to extend it beyond Kabul,
while 10,000 of its own troops remain engaged in a guerrilla war with the
Taliban.
-
- The problem in Iraq is already far worse. US war deaths
may be small, but serious injuries are very high with 1,425 casualties
already evacuated back to the US, most of them injured since Bush's famous
"end of war" declaration on 1 May. Even more remarkable is that
4,500 more troops have been sent home through physical or mental illness.
-
- A bitter war is now developing, focused mainly on supporters
of the old regime but likely to bring in militants from many other countries.
President Bush claimed from the start that Iraq was a focus for terrorism
- a claim for which there was little supporting evidence. But it is now
turning out to be a self-fulfilling prophecy. No longer will militants
have to attempt attacks in the US, the Americans have come to them, giving
them 140,000 targets in the heart of the Arab world.
-
- The Taliban may have been defeated in Afghanistan and
Saddam has been ousted in Iraq, but both countries remain deeply unstable
and the US and its partners have killed or injured tens of thousands of
civilians in the process. Meanwhile, al-Qa'ida and its associates remain
highly active and have little difficulty in renewing their leaderships
and gaining new recruits.
-
- There is also a deepening antipathy to the West stemming
from widening socio-economic divisions and marginalisation that readily
forms a basis for the development of radical movements, even leading to
rebellions and insurgencies. Many see Bush's war on terror more as an instrument
of control than anything else.
-
- Healing such divisions and undercutting the support for
paramilitary groups will need specific action such as greatly enhanced
security and assistance for Afghanistan as well as the replacement of the
current Iraq occupation with a UN-mediated move to internal democratic
government. Even more important will be sustained action to transform prospects
for sustainable development. Without such change, there is little prospect
of winning any war on terror and a much greater prospect of losing it.
-
- - Paul Rogers is Professor of Peace Studies, Bradford
University. His report 'The "War on Terror": two years on' is
published by Oxford Research Group on Tuesday
-
- Date: 22 September 2001
-
- Place: American Airlines flight from Paris to Boston
-
- What happened: Briton Richard Reid prevented by passengers
from igniting his shoe lined with explosives
-
- Casualties: 0
-
- Who was responsible: Reid, 29, has associated with British
Muslim militants and was a former member of al-Qa'ida Later sentenced to
life imprisonment by a Boston court
-
- Date: 17 March 2002
-
- Place: Islamabad, Pakistan
-
- What happened: Two attackers enter a Christian church
in a heavily guarded diplomatic compound. The men throw grenades at the
worshippers before escaping
-
- Casualties: Five die including the wife and daughter
of a US diplomat, 46 are injured
-
- Who was responsible: Believed to be Islamic militants
-
- Date: 11 April 2002
-
- Place: Tunisia
-
- What happened: A truck packed with explosives is driven
by a suicide bomber into a synagogue full of tourists
-
- Casualties: 21 die, most of them German
-
- Who was responsible: The bomber is named as Tunisian
Nizar Nawar, 24. Tunisian authorities insist he acted alone, but al-Qa'ida
claims responsibility
-
- Date: 8 May 2002
-
- Place: Karachi, Pakistan
-
- What happened: Suicide bomb explodes on a Pakistani navy
bus outside the Sheraton, carrying French engineers
-
- Casualties: 14 killed, including 11 French defence engineers,
and 34 injured
-
- Who was responsible: Pakistani militant group Jaish-I-Muhammad
is blamed and suspected of links to al-Qa'ida
-
- Date: 6 October 2002
-
- Place: Yemen
-
- What happened: Suicide bomber attacks French oil tanker,
the Limburg, spilling 90,000 barrels of oil Casualties: One crewman is
killed
-
- Who was responsible: Al-Qa'ida claims responsibility
and one of its operatives, Mohsen al-Fadhli, is arrested
-
- Date: 12 October 2002
-
- Place: Bali
-
- What happened Explosions destroy Sari Club and Paddy's
bar
-
- Casualties: 202 die, mainly Western tourists including
many Australians and Americans and 33 Britons
-
- Who was responsible: Jemaah Islamiya blamed for the attack,
and suspected of links to al-Qa'ida. 'Laughing bomber' Amrozi bin Nurhasyim
sentenced to death
-
- Date: 23 October 2002
-
- Place: Moscow
-
- What happened: 50 Chechen rebels, including female suicide
bombers, take 700 hostages at theatre. Siege ends when troops storm theatre
after disarming rebels with gas
-
- Casualties: 129 die from effects of the gas, including
all rebels
-
- Who was responsible: Group instructed by Movsar Barayev,
leader of ruthless Islamic Regiment of Chechen Fighters
-
- Date: 28 November 2002
-
- Place: Mombasa, Kenya
-
- What happened: Suicide bombers drive into Israeli-owned
hotel. Twin missiles launched at Israeli jet carrying 272 passengers shortly
after take-off, but they explode in mid-air
-
- Casualties: 15 die of car bomb, 80 injured - mainly Kenyans
-
- Who was responsible: Beirut-based group Army of Palestine
claims responsibility, suspected of links with al-Qa'ida
-
- Date: 12 May 2003
-
- Place: Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
-
- What happened: Four cars full of explosives are driven
into expatriate housing compounds
-
- Casualties: 34 are killed including two Britons and seven
Americans. More than 200 are wounded
-
- Who was responsible: Ali Abdul Rachman Gamdi and Abu
Bakr al Azdi, a senior al-Qa'ida operative, are arrested
-
- Date: 16 May 2003
-
- Place: Casablanca, Morocco
-
- What happened: 14 suicide bombers set off explosions
at Jewish centre, Spanish restaurant and Belgian consulate
-
- Casualties: 45 killed, over 100 injured. 12 bombers die
in attack
-
- Who was responsible: Surviving bombers, Mohammed Omari
and Rachid Jalil, sentenced to death with two other Salafist Jihad operatives;
83 members receive convictions
-
- Date: 8 June 2003
-
- Place: Kabul, Afghanistan
-
- What happened: Car bomb explodes in central Kabul. Casualties:
Four German peacekeepers are killed, more than 30 wounded
-
- Who was responsible: Taliban guerrillas are blamed for
the attack
-
- Date: 6 July 2003
-
- Place: Moscow
-
- What happened: Rock concert targeted by two female suicide
bombers, stopped at entrance where bombs detonate.
-
- Casualties: 16 die and over 60 are injured
-
- Who was responsible: Chechen warlord Shamil Basayev,
believed to have links with al-Qa'ida. His motive was to disrupt Kremlin-sponsored
presidential elections in Chechnya
-
- Date: 20 August 2003
-
- Place: Baghdad
-
- What happened: A suicide bomber drives a truckload of
explosives into the UN headquarters
-
- Casualties: 24 are killed including Sergio Vieira de
Mello, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights and Special Representative
in Iraq, and a British woman
-
- Who was responsible: Saddam loyalists are suspected
-
- Date: 25 August 2003
-
- Place: Bombay
-
- What happened: Twin car bombs explode in the busy commercial
district of Bombay, by the central market and Gateway of India monument
-
- Casualties: 52 are killed and more than 150 injured
-
- Who was responsible: The Student Islamic Movement of
India and Lashkar-e-Taiba, a Pakistan-based insurgent group, are thought
to have worked together on the attack
-
- Date: 29 August 2003
-
- Place: Najaf, Iraq What happened: A powerful car bomb
explodes outside the entrance to the Imam Ali mosque during worship
-
- Casualties: 80 killed, including Shia cleric Ayatollah
Baqr-al Hakim, who was collaborating with coalition forces
-
- Who was responsible: Supporters of Hakim accuse Saddam
loyalists, though other groups also under suspicion
-
- - Research by Sophie Morris
-
- © 2003 Independent Digital (UK) Ltd
-
- http://news.independent.co.uk/world/politics/story.jsp?story=441007
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