- BAGHDAD -- Yesterday's helicopter
attack will bolster a theory among commanders that their most dangerous
days in Iraq are nearly always Sundays or Mondays.
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- This, according to one United States general, is because
most attacks are carried out by insurgent fighters who meet up in mosques
for the weekly prayers on Fridays. They then plan for a day or two, before
launching a strike and lying low again for the rest of the week.
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- The theory was first disclosed last week by Brigadier
General Mark Hertling, who was speaking in the aftermath of a spree of
suicide car bombings in Baghdad, and the rocket attack on the al-Rasheed
hotel the day before.
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- It is not clear whether Brig Gen Hertling had specific
intelligence and analysis to back up his claims, or whether he was merely
voicing a hunch.
-
- But while the events of the last seven days in Iraq would
appear to back him up - Tuesday to Saturday were relatively quiet - a cursory
glance at the most serious incidents in recent months shows no obvious
signs of such a sustained cycle.
-
- Only two serious attacks have taken place on a Sunday,
the one on the al-Rasheed hotel a week ago, and another on the Baghdad
hotel on 12 October.
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- In pinning the attacks so closely to the routines of
prayer day, US commanders also risk undermining their own public claims
about the nature of the guerrilla campaign against them. They have normally
stuck to the line that most of the strikes are the work of non-religious
Saddam loyalists.
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- But with US troops generally maintaining a respectful
distance from the country's religious buildings, conspirators may feel
safe mingling amid the crowds.
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- In recent months, US troops have discovered weapons in
mosques on several occasions.
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- ©2003 Scotsman.com
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- http://www.news.scotsman.com/international.cfm?id=1211812003
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