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Brits Tell US Not To Hang
On To Power In Iraq

By Anton La Guardia
Diplomatic Editor
The Telegraph - UK
11-10-3


"[senior British officials] say the transfer of power must be speeded up even if it means tearing up America's step-by-step plan for a return to Iraqi sovereignty."

Britain is pressing the United States to hand over power to an Iraqi government within a year or risk a full-scale uprising against the military occupation.

In public, Tony Blair has shown firm resolve in the face of repeated attacks by Iraqi gunmen, saying the coalition will do whatever is necessary to restore security.

But in private, senior British officials are growing impatient with the slow rate of political progress, and fear that prolonged military rule by the allies will fan Iraqi nationalist sentiment. They say the transfer of power must be speeded up even if it means tearing up America's step-by-step plan for a return to Iraqi sovereignty.

Their view has support from elements of the US administration and is thought to have the backing of Paul Bremer, Washington's proconsul in Iraq. The issue is certain to be close to the top of the agenda at next week's state visit by President George W Bush to London.

A senior British source argued that the Americans were showing insufficient urgency. Iraqis must be given the sense that the country was returning to independence, he said.

"We have to hand over by next year," he said. "The middle of 2004 would be better than the end of 2004.

"Having the Americans governing in Baghdad is not sustainable for an indefinite period, otherwise you will end up with a genuine resistance."

Another source complained: "We've wasted the whole summer. The Americans are only now thinking seriously about what to do about Iraq but the debate in Washington is not resolved."

British officials are convinced that they will enjoy only a short period of tolerance from mainstream Iraqis, who may be grateful for the removal of Saddam Hussein but have no desire to live under foreign rule.

Despite the daily attacks by Iraqi gunmen - including suicide bombings in Baghdad, roadside ambushes and the shooting down of two American helicopters - British officials argue that unrest is still a limited revolt concentrated in the heartland of the former Ba'athists in the so-called Sunni Triangle.

Their nightmare is that the rebellion could spread to the Shi'a majority in the centre and south of the country, where British troops are deployed. That is the "real threat", one said.

British forces occupying Iraq at the end of the First World War faced a revolt in 1920, when sporadic outbursts of violence turned into a much more intense uprising after the call for Jihad was issued from the Shi'a holy cities of Karbala and Najaf.

Mr Bremer has set out a seven-point plan to create a new government in Baghdad.

So far he has achieved the first three steps: the appointment of a 25-member governing council, the rebuilding of Iraqi government ministries and the nomination of a committee to discuss writing a new constitution.

This should be followed by the drafting of a new constitution, a referendum to ratify the document, elections to choose a new government and finally a transfer of sovereignty.

But the constitutional process is proving to be an arduous task, not least because the allies want to show that the Iraqis, not the coalition, are deciding the future.

Shi'a members of the governing council are demanding an election to choose the members of the constitutional convention, but the coalition fears that this will cause further delay and are pressing for a quicker appointment process.

Even if the problem is resolved, the convention is likely to be divided over the contents of the constitution on issues such as the role of Islam, the status of minorities, and Kurdish demands for a federal state.

A decision may have to be taken by the Dec 15, which is the deadline for the governing council to submit to the United Nations its timetable for the creation of an internationally recognised government. American officials have expressed deep frustration with the governing council. Its members are accused of spending more time on protecting their interests than in shaping Iraq's future.

In America and in Britain, officials are studying the option of abandoning the attempt to write a constitution and leaving the job to a new "transitional" government.

This would be chosen either by election or by a special conference in a process that is reminiscent of the creation of the new government for Afghanistan after the fall of the Taliban. There have so far been two interim governments headed by Hamid Karzai, and the draft of a new constitution has just been completed.

© Copyright of Telegraph Group Limited 2003.

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