- TEHRAN (Reuters) - An earthquake
that may one day strike Tehran could kill hundreds of thousands and destroy
most of the buildings in the capital city of 12 million, a top Iranian
scientist warned on Monday .
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- Bahram Akasheh, professor of geophysics at Tehran University
and a government adviser, said a quake as strong as the one that flattened
the southeastern city of Bam could kill many times more than the 30,000
people who are feared dead there.
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- "The building codes are almost universally ignored
in Iran and Tehran is especially vulnerable to quakes because there is
a major fault line running across it," Akasheh told Reuters. "The
ground conditions in parts of Tehran are unfavorable: too soft, too brittle
and too dangerous to build on. Rules are ignored."
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- Northern Tehran is sitting on a major fault about 47
miles long and about 100 smaller fractures, Akasheh said.
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- He and other researchers estimate that a repeat of the
last big quake to hit Tehran, which killed 45,000 in 1830, would today
kill six percent of the capital's population.
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- "The destruction to Tehran would be immense. About
80 percent of the buildings would be damaged or destroyed. Tehran is not
ready for a big one."
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- In 1830, most of the damage was to buildings up to 100
km to the east of Tehran, which then had a population of just 10,000.
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- "All the villages were destroyed," Akasheh
said. "And you must keep in mind there were only one-story buildings
then. There was no big city. But everything was still destroyed."
-
- The 1830 shock is thought to have measured seven on the
Richter scale. The quake in Bam was 6.3.
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- The moderate Sharq newspaper said on Sunday a million
or more could die in a Tehran quake. It reported only five of the 32 fire
stations are built to withstand a powerful earthquake.
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- MOVE THE CAPITAL
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- In studies prepared for President Mohammad Khatami and
his predecessor Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Akasheh recommended moving the
sprawling capital to a safer region further south.
-
- Akasheh concluded that even if government building codes
were enforced and ramshackle buildings reinforced or torn down, Tehran
would still not be safe from a big tremor.
-
- "Mr Khatami asked me to work on the issue and I
recommended moving the capital. But apparently it is not possible. Pakistan
and Brazil were able to do it. Why not here?"
-
- Friday's quake shook a region with a population of 200,000.
Officials warn the death toll, now at 25,000, could hit 30,000. Another
30,000 have been injured and 100,000 made homeless.
-
- In 1990, some 35,000 were killed when earthquakes of
up to 7.7 on the Richter scale hit the northwest of Iran.
-
- Akasheh said there had not been a major quake in Bam
in 2,000 years. "All of a sudden the first major earthquake in the
city's history destroys Bam," he said.
-
-
-
- He said there is daily seismic activity in Tehran and
on average three to four identifiable tremors of up to three on the Richter
scale -- every day. But there have only been two quakes as high as 4.5
in the last 100 years.
-
- "I've forecast that there is the potential for an
earthquake of between 7 and 8," he said, adding that a long term Japanese
study of Tehran came to similar conclusions.
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