- The death of Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat
would set in motion a sequence of events that could culminate in an Israeli-Palestinian
peace agreement, a report released this week by the U.S. intelligence community
predicts.
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- The intelligence estimate casts doubt on the likelihood
of a full peace settlement materializing in the years before 2020; nonetheless,
should an Israel-Palestinian agreement for a "cold peace" win
support among a majority of Palestinians, it would constitute the most
significant development in the region since the establishment of the State
of Israel in 1948, improve the Arab world's attitude toward the U.S., and
eliminate a pretext used by Arab countries which are reluctant to implement
political reforms, the U.S. assessment claims. Israel, the evaluation adds,
will not relinquish nuclear weapons it possesses.
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- The evaluation was formulated by the National Intelligence
Council, which operates under the guidance of CIA director George Tenet.
The National Intelligence Council chairman, Ambassador Robert Hutchings,
takes part in National Security Council discussions.
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- The Intelligence Council, which is responsible for providing
short- and middle-term strategic assessments to the U.S. government, recently
conducted reviews of likely developments in regions of the world up to
the year 2020.
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- The Middle East section of this global assessment warns
about the possibility of a war between Israel and Syria, or some other
Arab state. In such a future war, it is possible that unconventional )biological,
chemical or even nuclear( weapons could be used, warns the National Intelligence
Council. Such a war would eradicate the softening of Arab attitudes toward
the U.S., and also derail efforts to revive progress on the Israel-Palestinian
peace track. Another rout of an Arab army by the IDF would cause Arab populations
to reconsider the viability of their political regimes.
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- The American intelligence experts express concern about
possible political unrest and upheaval in Egypt or Saudi Arabia. Among
other negative effects, the establishment of a radical regime in Egypt
would upset that country's peaceful relations with Israel.
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- "In the Israel-Arab conflict there have been pleasant
surprises," notes the Intelligence Council evaluation, "but the
dispute has almost always reverted back to spheres of hostility and suspicion.
Sadat's visit to Jerusalem did not blaze a trail, because only Jordan followed
Egypt's lead ... The Oslo Accords collapsed not on account of unpleasant
surprises or new problems, but rather due to ongoing animosity and suspicion."
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- The American intelligence analysts believe that Islamic
political groups will in the Arab world out-last secular rivals such as
Nasserism or Marxism. Yet it is unreasonable to assume that the Islamic
regime in a country like Saudi Arabia will last - however difficult it
is to forecast what might come next in Saudi Arabia, it is plausible to
assume that some change will come, claim the intelligence experts. Iran,
they say, will change significantly during years leading up to 2020, and
become more liberal and democratic.
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- The use of terrorism is likely to become directed increasingly
toward internal targets in Arab countries, claims the National Intelligence
Council. "Part of the deal worked out between Arab regimes and peoples
today is that violence is directed toward the outside, against Israel and
Westerners. International pressure against these regimes, demanding that
the export of terror be stopped, will direct the violence inward, toward
internal targets in the Arab countries themselves," claim the U.S.
intelligence authorities.
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