- The safest place for Saddam Hussain after his defeat,
and certainly one more comfortable than a "rat-hole", is a prison.
A grave might have been safe, but not as comfortable. Saddam was reduced
to a hunted and lonely existence.
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- The idea that he was commanding a fine-tuned resistance
is a myth put out to explain the high casualties Americans have suffered
since Bush thought his mission was accomplished. The resistance is a shadow
army. It is a network of cells held together by conviction. Those who commit
their lives in suicide missions do so for motives more substantial than
Saddam.
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- Although Saddam was arrested on December 13, the story
was missed by the Sunday papers because Washington held on to the news.
Britain's Sunday Times did not have Saddam, but a pretty good alternative
on December 14: an interview with Saddam's second wife, Samira Shahbandar.
She said she last saw Saddam at the Syrian border when she crossed with
her son, Ali. Saddam, she said, was in regular touch with her, and either
called her or wrote to her at least once a week.
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- The most elementary fact about modern telecommunications
is that the location of any call can be traced. So it was known where she
was. The best intelligence in the Arab world is Egyptian; it is highly
unlikely they were unaware of Samira's whereabouts. It would be equally
unlikely the CIA would not have got such information. If the Sunday Times
could locate Samira, surely the CIA could do so. Common sense dictates
that the surest way to Saddam is through his family.
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- The question is: what to do with Saddam? It would make
eminent sense to keep him under surveillance to trace through him all those
who were in touch with him. This would be vital intelligence if Saddam
did control a network of 'fedayeen'.
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- The manner in which Saddam was picked up by a detachment
of 600 troops indicates that those who gave the order for the mission knew
exactly who the target was, and where the target was located.
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- The decision to arrest Saddam was taken when his use
as a trapped prisoner was over; and his use as a "coward" could
begin. The decision might have also been prompted by fears that someone
else in the know (Mossad? The Iran intelligence agency?) was ready to leak
the story.
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- Saddam could not have expected to survive capture, particularly
after the way his sons, Uday and Qusay, were killed in July. Saddam must
have expected the Americans to treat him in the way he treated his enemies.
The security of a cell must seem like a haven.
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- Nor can Saddam be sent to Guantanamo Bay. But he will
be the world's most famous prisoner while he lives, and he will now live
longer than he might have expected on April 9. He will be tried in Iraq;
that is non-negotiable.
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- Saddam in power was a tyrant; Saddam in jail will be
a victim. The Americans did themselves little good by showing pictures
of Saddam's mouth being examined. Humiliation always invites sympathy.
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- Saddam will have enough opportunity to reposition himself
during his trial. Lawyers will enjoy the opportunity of defending him,
with fame being sufficient reward for their efforts. Saddam is sharp enough
to know how to handle his own space in the limelight and communicate with
the world. He is an author of sorts, having inflicted bad fiction on Iraqis
when in power. He could turn to non-fiction during the long hours of isolation.
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- The trial will be a formal opportunity for him to tell
his side of the story. The great mystery of the WMDs could finally end,
since there is now no scientist in Iraq who will fear Saddam's return to
power. And Saddam will, of course, happily provide the names of the American
and European companies who helped equip him with such weapons.
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- The most important consequence of Saddam's capture is
the shift in the political scene of Iraq. The Shiites, so far, have been
quiet, almost neutral, in the conflict between the Americans and the resistance.
They hated Saddam. The televised scenes of joy in Baghdad that were shown
at Saddam's arrest did not mention that most of those rejoicing were Shiites.
That did not mean that they were celebrating the American presence.
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- Bush has said that America wants to hand over power to
Iraqis by June 1. But which Iraqis will inherit and how will their legitimacy
be defined? If the means is going to be popular will, then the ends might
suit Tehran better than Washington.
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- The thought refuses to go away: has Saddam been caught
too soon for Bush's electoral comfort? There is another high-profile fugitive
on the White House's wish list. Perhaps, a quiet word to Kabul and Islamabad
should be passed on that the best time to get lucky is the middle of next
year.
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- http://www.gulfnews.com/Articles/opinion.asp?ArticleID=106463
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