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Global Nuclear Weapons Count
From Bill Smirnow
smirnowb@ix.netcom.com
1-18-4


The USA and Russia each have 2,000 to 2,500 nuclear weapons on hair trigger alert right now. There have almost been accidental nuclear wars several times in the past. There can be an accidental nuclear war anytime. It is totally preventable and holds the citizens of every country on earth besides those of Russia and the USA with a metaphorical nuclear pistol at their temples 24/7/365. All nuclear weapons need to be permenantly removed from hair trigger alert status. The induction of nuclear winter would follow such an exchange, be that accidental or intentional, in which the living will envy the dead.
 
Nuclear winter: http://www.mothersalert.org/nuclearwinter.html http://www.mothersalert.org/nuclearwinter2.html
 
http://www.thebulletin.org http://snipurl.com/3wc3
 
http://www.thebulletin.org/issues/nukenotes/nd02nukenote.html
 
Global Nuclear Stockpiles, 1945-2002
 
The five major nuclear powers currently have more than 20,000 nuclear warheads in their arsenals, as shown in the table below. But this does not include a number of intact Russian nuclear warheads of indeterminate status-possibly as many as 10,000. Of the more than 30,000 intact warheads belonging to the world's eight nuclear weapon states, the vast majority (96 percent) are in U.S. or Russian stockpiles. About 17,500 of these warheads are considered operational. The rest are in reserve or retired and awaiting dismantlement.
 
We estimate that since 1945, more than 128,000 nuclear warheads have been built worldwide-all but 2 percent of them by the United States (55 percent) and the Soviet Union or Russia (43 percent). Since the Cold War ended, more and more warheads in U.S. and Russian stockpiles are being moved from operational status into various reserve, inactive, or contingency categories. The destruction of warheads is not required under current arms control agreements. For example, the 2002 Moscow Treaty (the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty) contains no verification provisions and completely ignores non-operational and non-strategic warheads. The result is that stockpiles are more opaque and more difficult to describe with precision.
 
The United States has produced some 70,000 warheads since 1945, of which, 60,000 have been dismantled (more than 12,000 of them since 1990). The U.S. arsenal contains approximately 10,600 intact warheads. Of this number, nearly 8,000 are considered active or operational. In addition, several hundred warheads await disassembly at the Pantex Plant near Amarillo, Texas, including the W56 and W79 warheads, around 36 B53 bombs, and some excess non-strategic B61 bombs. These warheads should have been dismantled by 2000, but for various reasons, the schedule has been extended.
 
As detailed in the Bush administration's Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), the plan is to reduce the number of "operationally deployed strategic warheads" to 1,700- 2,200 by the end of 2012. With the possible exception of the Minuteman III W62, there will be no further dismantlement of warheads beyond those specified in the 1994 NPR. The reduction of operationally deployed warheads will be accomplished by transferring warheads from active delivery vehicles to either a "responsive force" or to "inactive reserve." An example of inactive reserve warheads are those that do not have limited life components, such as tritium. Any additional disassembly before 2014, according to the Energy Department's National Nuclear Security Administration, would compete with planned refurbishments of the nine warhead types in the enduring stockpile. If current plans are fulfilled, by 2012 we estimate that the United States will have approximately 10,000 intact warheads-essentially the same number as today.
 
Russia has not released information about the size of its stockpile. We estimate that since 1949 the Soviet Union/Russia has produced about 55,000 nuclear warheads, and that about 30,000 warheads existed in 1990-1991. The U.S. Defense Department and CIA estimate that Russia dismantled slightly more than 1,000 warheads per year during the 1990s, so that its remaining stockpile of intact warheads may be around 18,600. Only around 8,600 of these are thought to be operational. As many as 10,000 nuclear warheads are believed to be in non-operational status: in reserve for possible redeployment or retired and awaiting dismantlement.
 
The Moscow Treaty limits Russia's operationally deployed strategic warheads to no more than 2,200 by 2012, but because of limited resources and funding, it is unlikely that Russia will be able to sustain that many. Russia had pressed for a limit of 1,500 warheads, and if significant numbers of warheads are not refurbished and returned to operational forces, the stockpile could shrink to as few as 1,000 strategic warheads and no more than 1,000 tactical warheads over the next 10 years.
 
Britain is estimated to have produced approximately 1,200 warheads since 1953. Its current stockpile is thought to consist of some 200 strategic and "sub-strategic" warheads on Vanguard-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs). The government declared in July 1998 that there would "be fewer than 200 operationally available warheads," of which 48 warheads would be on patrol at any given time on a single SSBN. The British arsenal peaked in the 1970s at 350 warheads.
 
France maintains approximately 350 warheads, down from 540 in 1992. France has produced more than 1,260 nuclear warheads since 1964. It has dismantled its land-based ballistic missiles and retired its nuclear bombs for delivery by naval-strike aircraft. The M51 sea-launched ballistic missile scheduled for deployment in 2010 was initially slated to carry an entirely new warhead (the TNO, or tête nucléaire océanique), but will instead be equipped with a more robust version of an existing design (probably the TN-75).
 
China is estimated to have an arsenal of around 400 nuclear warheads, down from 435 in 1993. China is thought to have produced some 600 nuclear warheads since 1964, and U.S. intelligence and defense agencies predict that over the next 15 yea rs China may increase the number of warheads on primarily U.S-targeted missiles from 20 to between 75-100.
 
India and Pakistan, the world's two newest declared nuclear powers, have fewer than 100 nuclear warheads between them, most of which are not yet operationally deployed. We estimate that India has produced enough fissile material for 45-95 nuclear warheads but may have assembled only 30-35, and that Pakistan has produced fissile material sufficient for 30-52 weapons and assembled 24-48 warheads. Both countries are thought to be increasing their stockpiles.
 
Israel has neither confirmed nor denied possession of nuclear weapons, although U.S. intelligence reports for many years have labeled Israel a de facto nuclear power. Some unofficial reports estimate Israel's arsenal to have as many as 200 warheads, the first of which reportedly was assembled in 1967.
 
 
Year U.S. Russia U.K. France China Total
1945 6 6
1946 11 11
1947 32 32
1948 110 110
1949 235 1 236
1950 369 5 374
1951 640 25 665
1952 1,005 50 1,055
1953 1,436 120 1 1,557
1954 2,063 150 5 2,218
1955 3,057 200 10 3,267
1956 4,618 426 15 5,059
1957 6,444 660 20 7,124
1958 9,822 869 22 10,713
1959 15,468 1,060 25 16,553
1960 20,434 1,605 30 22,069
1961 24,111 2,471 50 26,632
1962 27,297 3,322 205 30,824
1963 29,249 4,238 280 33,767
1964 30,751 5,221 310 4 1 36,287
1965 31,642 6,129 310 32 5 38,118
1966 31,700 7,089 270 36 20 39,115
1967 30,893 8,339 270 36 25 39,563
1968 28,884 9,399 280 36 35 38,634
1969 26,910 10,538 308 36 50 37,842
1970 26,119 11,643 280 36 75 38,153
1971 26,365 13,092 220 45 100 39,822
1972 27,296 14,478 220 70 130 42,194
1973 28,335 15,915 275 116 150 44,791
1974 28,170 17,385 325 145 170 46,195
1975 27,052 19,055 350 188 185 46,830
1976 25,956 21,205 350 212 190 47,913
1977 25,099 23,044 350 228 200 48,920
1978 24,243 25,393 350 235 220 50,441
1979 24,107 27,935 350 235 235 52,862
1980 23,764 30,062 350 250 280 54,706
1981 23,031 32,049 350 274 330 56,034
1982 22,937 33,952 335 274 360 57,858
1983 23,154 35,804 320 279 380 59,937
1984 23,228 37,431 270 280 415 61,624
1985 23,135 39,197 300 360 425 63,417
1986 23,254 40,723 300 355 425 65,057
1987 23,490 38,859 300 420 415 63,484
1988 23,077 37,333 300 410 430 61,550
1989 22,174 35,805 300 410 435 59,124
1990 21,211 33,417 300 505 430 55,863
1991 18,306 28,595 300 540 435 48,176
1992 13,731 25,155 300 540 435 40,161
1993 11,536 22,101 300 525 435 34,897
1994 11,012 18,399 250 510 400 30,571
1995 10,953 14,978 300 500 400 27,131
1996 10,886 12,085 300 450 400 24,121
1997 10,829 11,264 260 450 400 23,203
1998 10,763 10,764 260 450 400 22,637
1999 10,698 10,451 185 450 400 22,184
2000 10,615 10,201 185 470 400 21,871
2001 10,491 9,126 200 350 400 20,567
2002 10,600 8,600 200 350 400 20,150
 
 
 
Nuclear Notebook is prepared by Robert S. Norris of the Natural Resources Defense Council and Hans M. Kristensen of the Nautilus Institute. Inquiries should be directed to NRDC, 1200 New York Avenue, N.W., Suite 400, Washington, D.C., 20005; 202-289-6868.
 
 
©2002 Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists



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