- China paraded seven alleged Taiwanese spies before reporters
a few days ago in what appears to be a new tactic to influence March 20
presidential elections in the island state of 23 million people.
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- Past attempts by China to upset the democratic process
in Taiwan, which Beijing claims to own, have failed miserably and this
latest ploy doesn't look like a winner either.
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- China fired unarmed missiles into the shipping lanes
around Taiwan in 1996 when the island held its first free presidential
elections after a 10-year transition to democracy from a one-party military
regime.
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- Beijing's aim was to scare Taiwan's voters away from
supporting Lee Teng-hui, whom China believed was intent on securing internationally
recognized independence for the island.
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- But the threats didn't work. Taiwanese are a tough, resourceful
and resilient people. They flocked to vote for president Lee.
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- In the last elections in 2000, Beijing wheeled out its
usually moderate prime minister Zhu Rongji to issue blood-curdling threats
of invasion if the island didn't soon start bowing to China's demands for
control of the island.
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- That didn't work either. Instead Beijing was presented
with the discomforting picture of the first peaceful and democratic transfer
of political power in any predominantly ethnic Chinese society. The leader
of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party, Chen Shui-bian, was elected
president.
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- Now Chen, whose party is in favour of formal independence,
is up for re-election in a tight race and Beijing has turned to the substantial
community of several hundred thousand Taiwanese business people working
on the mainland to try to exert pressure.
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- The seven Taiwanese produced last weekend were part of
a group of more than 40 nabbed by China's state security agents.
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- Why these seven were produced and not the rest can only
be guessed at. But it is hard to escape the notion that the seven had been
successfully pressured into telling reporters the things Beijing wanted
said while the remaining "spies" had not.
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- "Chen Shui-bian is really rotten," said one
of the seven, Fu Hung-chang. "After using us, he abandons us. I'm
really hurt."
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- Beijing appears to be hoping that if Taiwanese voters
fear for the safety of their business people on the mainland, who have
been the largest single investors in China's economic development in recent
years, they will turn away from president Chen. Beijing would much prefer
to see the more cautious Lien Chan, presidential candidate for the Kuomintang
party, head the island's administration.
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- Another possibility, of course, is an exodus of Taiwanese
investors from the mainland and a reaffirmation among the island's people
that they want nothing to do with China while it remains a lawless one-party
dictatorship.
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- What the "spies" are alleged to have done is
provide the Taiwan administration with information on the siting of the
496 missiles China has aimed at the island from 160 kilometres away across
the Taiwan Strait.
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- This belligerent display by China and its persistent
threats to invade the island have allowed President Chen to employ a new
law providing a legal framework for referenda on the island.
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- When they vote in the presidential election Taiwanese
will also be asked to cast their ballots on two questions.
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- One asks if they agree to the government strengthening
the island's defences, including deployment of an anti-ballistic missiles
shield, if China does not withdraw its missile threat and renounce the
use of force against Taiwan.
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- The second question asks if the Taiwan government should
negotiate with the mainland to establish a framework for peace and stability
across the strait.
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- China is apoplectic about the referendum. The Beijing
government doesn't like to see free expressions of public opinion to begin
with, but on Taiwan it fears referenda will at some point be used to ask
the islanders whether they want recognized independence.
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- Chen has already said that if re-elected he intends to
use referenda to replace Taiwan's outdated and overly complex constitution
with a modern version. There can be little doubt that while the constitutional
rewrite may not directly address the independence question, it will further
embed what is already a reality: that Taiwan is an independent nation and
has been since it became a separate administration when the Communists
took control of China in 1949.
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- It is not only China that is troubled by the possibilities
contained in the referendum law. So is the United States administration
of President George W. Bush.
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- Early in December, Bush expressed public irritation with
his Taiwanese counterpart for disturbing the status quo in relations with
China. Bush's comments had added punch because he made them with China's
new prime minister, Wen Jiabao, standing at his side during a visit to
Washington.
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- America is bound by domestic legislation, the Taiwan
Relations Act, to aid the island's defence if it is attacked. Bush's military
is already overstretched with its commitments in the Balkans, Iraq and
Afghanistan. It would be hard to cope with another troublespot.
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- But in the last few weeks, Washington has moderated its
view, especially since the publication of the non-provocative referendum
questions.
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- Beijing, however, is not mollified and officials continue
to insist that any referendum on Taiwan brings the island and its people
"to the brink of danger."
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- jmanthorpe@png.canwest.com © Copyright 2004 Vancouver
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