- The Bush administration, deeply concerned about recent
assassination attempts against Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf and
a resurgence of Taliban forces in neighboring Afghanistan, is preparing
a U.S. military offensive that would reach inside Pakistan with the goal
of destroying Osama bin Laden's Al Qaeda network, military sources said.
-
- U.S. Central Command is assembling a team of military
intelligence officers that would be posted in Pakistan ahead of the operation,
according to sources familiar with details of the plan and internal military
communications. The sources spoke on the condition they not be identified.
-
- As now envisioned, the offensive would involve Special
Operations forces, Army Rangers and Army ground troops, sources said. A
Navy aircraft carrier would be deployed in the Arabian Sea.
-
- Referred to in internal Pentagon messages as the "spring
offensive," the operation would be driven by certain undisclosed events
in Pakistan and across the region, sources said. A source familiar with
details of the plan said this is "not like a contingency plan for
North Korea, something that sits on a shelf. This planning is like planning
for Iraq. They want this plan to be executable, now."
-
- The Defense Department declined to comment on the planned
offensive or its details.
-
- Such an operation almost certainly would demand the cooperation
of Musharraf, who previously has allowed only a small number of U.S. Special
Operations forces to work alongside Pakistani troops in the semi-autonomous
tribal areas. A military source in Washington said last week, "We
are told we're going into Pakistan with Musharraf's help."
-
- Yet a large-scale offensive by U.S. forces within the
nuclear-armed Islamic republic could be political dynamite for Musharraf.
-
- The army general, who took power in a bloodless coup
in 1999, has come under growing political pressure from Islamic parties,
and his cooperation with U.S. anti-terrorism efforts is widely unpopular
among average Pakistanis. Nor can Musharraf count on the loyalty of all
of Pakistan's armed forces or its intelligence agency, members of which
helped set up and maintain the Taliban in Afghanistan and are suspected
of ties to militant Islamic groups.
-
- Speaking on Friday at the World Economic Forum in Davos,
Switzerland, Musharraf again rejected the need for U.S. forces to enter
Pakistan to search for bin Laden.
-
- "That is not a possibility at all," Musharraf
said. "It's a very sensitive issue."
-
- The U.S. military is operating under the belief that,
despite his recent statements, Musharraf's thinking has changed, sources
said. Musharraf said last week that bin Laden and his followers likely
were hiding in the mountains along the Afghan border. He also said "we
are reasonably sure that it is Al Qaeda" who was behind the two attempts
on his life.
-
- An offensive into Pakistan to pursue Al Qaeda would be
in keeping with President Bush's vow to strike wherever and whenever the
United States feels threatened and to pursue terrorist elements to the
end.
-
- "The best way to defend America... is to stay on
the offensive and find these killers, one by one," Bush said last
week. "We're going to stay on the hunt, which requires good intelligence,
good cooperation, good participation with friends and allies around the
world."
-
- Musharraf's vulnerability is of deep concern to U.S.
officials. If he were killed, Bush administration officials say, it is
unlikely that any successor would be as willing to work toward U.S. goals
to eliminate Islamic extremists.
-
- The U.S. military plan is characterized within the Pentagon
as "a big effort" in the next year. Military analysts had previously
judged that a bold move against Islamic extremists and bin Laden, in particular,
was more likely to happen in spring 2005.
-
- A series of planning orders--referred to in military
jargon as warning orders--for the offensive were issued in recent weeks.
The deadline for key planning factors to be detailed by the U.S. military
was Jan. 21.
-
- Sources said the plan against Al Qaeda would be driven
by events in the region rather than set deadlines and that delays could
occur. But military sources said the push for this spring appeared to be
triggered by the assassination attempts on Musharraf, both of which came
in December, and, to some extent, the capture of Saddam Hussein in Iraq.
-
- Hussein was captured after eight months of an intense
military and intelligence effort on the ground in Iraq. Pentagon and administration
officials, buoyed by that success, believe a similar determined effort
could work in Pakistan and lead to the capture or killing of bin Laden,
said sources familiar with the planning.
-
- Thousands of U.S. forces would be involved, as well as
Pakistani troops, planners said. Some of the 10,600 U.S. troops now in
Afghanistan would be shifted to the border region as part of regular troop
movements; some would be deployed within Pakistan.
-
- "Before we were constrained by the border. Musharraf
did not want that. Now we are told we're going into Pakistan with Musharraf's
help," a well-placed military source said.
-
- Internal Pentagon communications indicate the U.S. offensive
would rely on several areas of operation, including Afghanistan, Pakistan
and other countries in the region.
-
- The U.S. also is weighing how and if Iran can be persuaded,
through direct or indirect channels, to lend help, according to internal
Pentagon communications. The U.S. is eager to avoid a repeat of the Afghan
war in 2001, when some Al Qaeda fighters were believed to have escaped
into Iran.
-
- Military planners said the offensive would not require
a significant increase in U.S. troops in South Asia. But Special Operations
forces that shifted from Afghanistan to Iraq in 2003 will return.
-
- "We don't have enough forces but we can rely on
proxy forces in that area," said a military source, referring to Pakistani
troops. "This is designed to go after the Taliban and everybody connected
with it."
-
- Copyright © 2004 Yahoo! Inc. All rights reserved.
-
- http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=2027&ncid=2027&e=2&u=
/chitrib_ts/20040128/ts_chicagotrib/usplansalqaedaoffensive
|