- Summary
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- Citing "security reasons", the Israeli government
has decided to speed up the shipment of a new submarine from Germany. Israel
reportedly has plans to equip the submarine to attack land-based targets
with nuclear weapons. Israel does not appear to have immediate naval security
concerns because of its Arab neighbors. The delivery of the submarine most
likely is intended to complete a nuclear land-attack capability to deter
the current crisis from descending into region-wide war or allow Israel
to fight one, if necessary.
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- Analysis
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- The Tekuma, the last of three new, German-built, Dolphin-class
submarines, has been rushed from Germany to Israel for "security reasons",
an army spokesman said on military radio Oct. 24. The craft has been in
Germany while the crew underwent training.
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- The Israeli military appears to be completing the development
of a second-strike nuclear land-attack capability. Fighting between Palestinians
and Israelis is likely to go on for months. And if tension in the Middle
East descends into regional war, damaging Israel's land-based nuclear weapons,
the Israeli navy can still field a surviving submarine-based force capable
of launching an attack.
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- Despite the progress that has been made, the regional
crisis has not yet ended. Although the key regional actor, Egypt, has made
a strategic choice for peace, anti-Israeli sentiment continues to build,
inflamed by continued violence in the Palestinian territories. In a weakened
state, Israel's prime minister is increasingly desperate and his government
appears, as a result, to have hastened delivery of the new submarine.
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- Tekuma is the last of three Dolphin-class submarines,
built and largely subsidized by Germany expressly for deployment by the
Israeli navy in Mediterranean waters. The German decision to underwrite
the Israeli Dolphin program stems from the 1991 Persian Gulf War, when
Iraq struck Israel with Scuds, equipped with warheads at least partially
developed by German firms. Subsequently, Helmut Kohl, the chancellor at
the time, offered military assistance, including construction of two of
the three Dolphin submarines. The Germans helped pay for the first two;
Israel financed the Tekuma.
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- The diesel-powered Dolphins will reportedly replace Israel's
three aging German submarines, which entered service in 1977. The 187-
foot Tekuma weighs 1,700 tons and can accommodate a crew of 35 for more
than one month of continuous operations. The Dolphin class is designed
for interdiction, surveillance and special-forces operations and is designed
to travel at maximum speeds of 20 knots with a cruising range of 4,500
nautical miles. The vessel has 10 torpedo tubes and is capable of launching
Harpoon missiles.
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- While the vessel is designed for a standard attack role,
Israel has comparatively little to fear from the Egyptian or Syrian navies.
The Egyptian navy is primarily focused on coastal defense and its submarine
fleet only consists of four old Romeo class patrol submarines. The last
significant improvement of its navy was in 1996; the four subs underwent
a $133 million upgrade to acquire the capability to fire anti-ship missiles
and NT37 wire-guided torpedoes. The Syrian navy is in worse shape; its
three Romeo class submarines are non-operational, according to London's
International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). At least one reportedly
sank pier-side in the mid-1990s.
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- Israel's eagerness to deploy the submarine probably is
intended as a deterrent to regional war. Jane's International Defense Review
(IDR) reported in September 1999 that sources close to the German construction
project said Israel was planning to equip the Dolphins with a nuclear land-attack
capability shortly after the submarine's arrival. This was to be done by
modifying U.S.-supplied Sub-Harpoon missiles with an indigenously developed
nuclear warhead and guidance kit. Each Dolphin would reportedly be able
to carry five modified Sub-Harpoons, with a range of 80 miles, as well
as 16 torpedoes.
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- As well, Israel clearly has an interest in land-attack
missiles. In January, Israel asked the United States to sell it 50 Tomahawk
land-attack cruise missiles to enhance its deep-strike capabilities under
its wide-ranging strategic defense program, according to Jane's Missiles
and Rockets. It was not clear whether Israel was seeking air- or sea-launched
variants, but the mission of the Israeli navy traditionally coastal defense
and maritime supply route protection is expanding to include a stronger
deterrent and survivable nuclear-strike capability.
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- Washington rejected Israel's request in March, prompting
concern that Israel may develop its own indigenous long-range cruise missile.
Shortly after the rejection, an Israeli official told Defense News, "History
has taught us that we cannot wait indefinitely for Washington to satisfy
our military requirements. If this weapon system is denied to us, we will
have little choice but to activate our own defense industry in pursuit
of this needed capability."
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- Indeed, Israel may have already developed cruise missiles
on its own. The London Sunday Times reported June 18 that Israel had test-
fired domestic-produced cruise missiles from its newly acquired Dolphin-class
submarine off Sri Lanka in May. And the U.S. National Air Intelligence
Center warned the U.S. Congress in July 1998 that Israel was developing
a cruise missile believed to be the Rafael- produced Popeye Turbo missile
with a range of 215 miles that was expected to be operational by 2002.
Although the Popeye Turbo is promoted as an air-launched weapon, it may
be adapted for submarine launch.
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- If Israel has managed to create its own submarine-launched
cruise missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads, it would mark a major
step in its nuclear capability and throw the balance of power further in
Israel's favor.
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- Israel is clearly concerned that the current crisis still
has potential to pull in surrounding Arab nations and blow up into a regional
war. Israeli military doctrine has always focused on immediate threats
from its Arab neighbors, strong deterrence and a first-strike capability.
Israel may be hoping its increased readiness will further deter Arab nations
from involving themselves in a larger war.
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