- "It is not a new trend," she said. "Demographers
in China as well as foreign analysts have been expressing concern for some
years. In the last census it was quite clear that this was an upward trend
and it is forecast that **there will be a shortage of potential marriage
mates which will lead to some social instability." **
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- China, the most populous nation on Earth, could find
itself dealing with the combined frustrations of as many as 40 million
single men by 2020 because its one-child policy is creating a shortage
of female babies.
-
- In an unusually frank speech on China's looming demographic
crisis, Li Weixiong, who advises the country's political consultative conference
on population issues, said a cultural preference for boys was creating
an artificial disparity between the number of boys and girls that represents
"a serious threat to building a well-off society".
-
- Mr Li said the dearth of women would lead to a dramatic
rise in prostitution and the trafficking of women. "This is by no
means a sensational prediction," he said.
-
- The search for love is leading traditionally staid Chinese
men down unfamiliar paths. There are reports of men placing ads in major
newspapers begging women to respond. If the ads are anything to go by -
with some ads emphasising the possession of a good bathroom - the way to
a modern Chinese woman's heart is a spacious apartment and a decent salary.
-
- Wealthier men are reportedly taking their search beyond
China's borders, a risky tactic given that many Chinese households have
been less than welcoming to foreign brides.
-
- Unmarried men with less money often have no choice but
to turn to illegal brokers, who dupe rural women into moving to the city
with bogus job offers.
-
- The widespread introduction of ultrasound testing has
enabled a much larger number of Chinese couples to choose to abort female
foetuses in the hope that the next pregnancy will produce a son.
-
- Mr Li said the gender ratio had stayed relatively normal
up until 1982 - two years after the Chinese authorities imposed the one-child
rule - at 100 girls born for every 108 boys. But by 2000, the ratio had
shifted significantly to about 117 boys to 100 girls.
-
- The disparity is even bigger in rural areas, where the
boy-to-girl imbalance is estimated to be as high as 130 to 100.
-
- Abortions are not the only cause of the imbalance. There
is alarming evidence that the intense pressure on couples to make sure
their only child is a boy has prompted a resurgence of female infanticide,
despite official attempts to stamp out the centuries-old practice.
-
- Rural families are said to be particularly tempted to
kill female offspring, such is the pressure to produce a child capable
of coping with the physical demands of farming and prevent cash-strapped
farming households from being plunged even deeper into poverty.
-
- In some cases, according to reports, other girls are
hidden from the authorities, or die at a young age through neglect.
-
- Even in urban areas, boys are generally preferred because
they are regarded as more able than girls to provide for their families,
care for elderly relatives and continue the family line.
-
- The government, stung by accusations from child welfare
groups that it is turning a blind eye to the practice of girl-killing,
has allowed some provinces to grant couples permission to have more than
one child provided they pay a fine to register each extra birth.
-
- In some villages, local officials have placed dozens
of posters bearing the message: "Daughters are as good as sons!"
-
- Despite growing evidence of the enormous social cost
of their one-child policy, officials in Beijing insist there are no plans
to relax the measure, which they regard as the most important weapon in
China's battle to keep its population below 1.6 billion until 2050.
-
- Statistically, the policy has had some success. The communist
authorities say it has prevented well over 300 million births since it
was introduced in 1980 and is fulfilling its initial aim of ensuring that
China can combat rural poverty and improve standards of living across the
board.
-
- According to the UN, China's population stood at 1.3
billion in 2003 but independent estimates believe couples with extra children
are hiding them from census authorities, meaning the actual figure could
be as high as 1.5 billion.
-
- As the country's economy continues to grow and transform
at an unprecedented rate, pressure to relax the policy looks likely to
intensify if Mr Li's worst-case scenario of social unrest, exploitation
of women and crime turns out to be correct.
-
- "Such serious gender disproportion poses a major
threat to the healthy, harmonious and sustainable growth of the nation's
population and would trigger such crimes and social problems as abduction
of women and prostitution," he said.
-
- His claims are supported by official figures showing
that police freed more than 42,000 kidnapped women and children in 2001
and 2002. Many of the victims are believed to have been sold into marriage
or prostitution.
-
- Elisabeth Croll, professor of Chinese anthropology at
the School of Oriental and African Studies in London, said she welcomed
Mr Li's warning as it would remind China's leaders of the magnitude of
the problem they face.
-
- "It is not a new trend," she said. "Demographers
in China as well as foreign analysts have been expressing concern for some
years. In the last census it was quite clear that this was an upward trend
and it is forecast that there will be a shortage of potential marriage
mates which will lead to some social instability."
-
- Several years ago the government prohibited doctors from
telling couples the sex of their child, but the measure seems to have had
little effect. Mr Li called for a ban on mid-term abortions, except in
cases with health concerns.
-
- China's experience could prove a lesson to other countries
in the region whose populations are also being skewed by gender imbalance.
-
- Prof Croll said: "It is an Asia-wide problem affecting
many countries including Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam and India. It is
something that is increasing with development instead of decreasing."
-
- The professor, who wrote about the issue in her recent
book Endangered Daughters: Discrimination and Development in Asia, said
it was a mistake to blame girl infanticide in China only on a resurgence
of "old ideas".
-
- For many families, she said, the preference for a son
makes simple economic sense as they are less likely to leave the family
home after marrying and, as higher earners than women, are more able to
provide for the extended family.
-
- Prof Croll said more families in China's rapidly expanding
cities were favouring sons, partly because a decline in pensions over the
past decade had made older people less secure and more reliant on their
children.
-
- If the authorities are reluctant to lift the birth limit,
possible long-term solutions to the looming dearth of eligible women may
be even more unpalatable. They include altering the traditional marital
balance of power and bringing women's pay more into line with that of men,
enabling them to better support their families.
-
- http://www.guardian.co.uk/china/story/0,7369,1165129,00.html
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