- Dear Jeff,
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- Another study done for the Dept of Defense. The full
PDF report is available at the following link. Seems we can set policies
now that would have us off oil in 15 years. Nahh! Let's have endless wars
in the Middle East and Central Asia instead!
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- http://www.arlingtoninstitute.org/energy_movingamerica.htm
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- Executive Summary
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- Recent terrorist events have again raised new questions
about the security of U.S. energy. In the light of Middle East regional
instability, it is fair to ask: Are there any alternatives to the status
quo? How might the U.S. hurry the inevitable shift in primary energy supply,
which has happened many times before in history, to a more stable, clean
alternative to oil?
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- This study looks at historical global energy transitions,
catalogues the present situation, looks into potential new technologies,
envisions a new, all-electric world, and then posits a strategy that could
dramatically and fundamentally change the shape of energy usage in the
U.S. and the planet in the next fifteen years.
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- About 26% of the total energy consumption in the United
States is used for transportation. Oil, 60% of which is imported, provides
nearly all that energy. To solve the problem of dependency on imported
oil, changes must occur in the transportation sector.
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- In sum, it looks like the world - led by the U.S. - is
moving toward the day when hydrogen will replace oil as the major source
of energy for transportation. The only question is how we get there. There
are three major scenarios that describe possible energy environments of
the next few decades: Awash in Oil and Gas, Technology Triumphs, and Turbulent
World. Within the alternative vagaries of unlimited fossil fuels, new hydrogen-based
technologies, or broad-based chaos that begs for change, a path must be
planned that is based upon evolutionary change but will respond to revolutionary
influences.
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- Where is this all going in the end? What does the world
of transportation look like in, say, 2050? It's our guess that it's an
all-electric world. Almost all vehicles (and most of the rest of our tools)
will be electrically powered - the question is where and how the electricity
is generated. Breakthroughs in generation, distribution and storage are
almost inevitable and will eliminate all of the major problems associated
with electricity today.
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- Keeping in mind possible technological breakthroughs
that could leap over hydrogen fuel cells and produce electricity directly
on a vehicle, we nevertheless jumped into the present methanol-ethanol-natural
gas argument as a source for H2 and then assessed all of the major alternative
vehicles that are presently under development.
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- There are a number of fundamental considerations that
will always be major factors in any changes to a new energy source: political
and economic feasibility, environmental impact, utilization of existing
infrastructure, potential geopolitical disruption, et al. Using Think Toolsä
technology, we arrayed all of these against all combinations of energy
source/vehicle to isolate which options presented the best near-term, mid-term
and long-term benefits. Always preserving the capability of rapidly accelerating
the pace because of some major event or science breakthrough, a solid 15-year
development path was designed.
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- The beginning of the strategy is already being played
out: all manufacturers can now produce E85 engines (that can run on any
combination of gasoline and ethanol up to 85% ethanol), with no changes
in engineering and manufacturing cost. They should do so immediately. That
would open up many hundreds of thousands of new vehicles to using ethanol,
a domestically produced alternative fuel that can be distributed through
the existing infrastructure with essentially no change at all.
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- An increasing number of manufacturers are producing hybrid
electric vehicles (HEVs). Electricity is produced in an HEV from an internal
combustion engine/generator set and stored in batteries. Either the engine
or the batteries is then used for powering electric drive motors under
the most efficient conditions. HEVs are the first step toward an all-electric
vehicle, and if the engine were an E85/HEV engine it would at the same
time be much more fuel-efficient while a larger portion of the fuel would
come from North America.
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- Efficiency could be significantly increased above that
gained from powertrain upgrades by integrating full-system design measures
that take into consideration elements like aerodynamic drag, rolling friction,
heating and cooling efficiencies, etc. The best example of this is the
Hypercar® that has been developed in Colorado. Hypercar® design
ideas combined with the HEV drivetrain could theoretically produce average
fuel consumptions around 90 mpg.
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- The HEV/Hypercar® could easily be upgraded with fuel
cells when they become commercially available. That would be a natural
evolution along the developmental path to national independence, vehicle
efficiency, and environmental friendliness.
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- All of these initiatives must be implemented while keeping
in mind the larger objective of maintaining geopolitical stability. It
would make no sense to solve our domestic energy problem by causing a number
of equally significant, enduring crises in other parts of the world . .
. that we then have to deal with for decades to come. We must take a holistic
approach to dealing with this system.
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