- The Hollywood blockbuster that depicts a sudden ice age
brought about by climate change is "remarkably realistic" in
parts, says the Government's chief scientist.
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- Sir David King said The Day After Tomorrow, which he
watched yesterday at a private screening in London, will increase the public's
awareness of a threat he once described as worse than terrorism. But he
added that it plays fast and loose with some of the science of climate
change. "I welcome the movie in the sense that it raises the profile
of a critically important public debate about global warming and the need
to persuade governments to take action now," Sir David said.
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- The catastrophic climatic events of the film's storyline
are triggered by the Gulf Stream - the warm current that flows into the
North Atlantic - coming to a sudden halt. This brings a dramatic and instant
ice age to North America and Europe.
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- Sir David said the film, by the Independence Day director,
Roland Emmerich, accurately portrayed the difficult real-life discussions
that have taken place between climate scientists and politicians, particularly
those close to the Bush administration, which is sceptical about global
warming.
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- "The general interaction between the scientific
community and political community is interestingly well portrayed,"
he said. "The opening scenes setting up the key scientific factors
and introducing the viewer to the scientists and the scientific-political
interface are in my view remarkably realistic. I think palaeoclimatologists
can closely identify with the discussion. The sceptical reactions that
the scientists received are also rather well depicted."
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- Climate scientists know that a warmer planet could slow
down the Gulf Stream, but none of the computer models predicts its complete
halt, and all suggest that climate change will result in a warmer rather
than colder world, Sir David said.
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- "The current consensus is that climate change may
result in a weakening of the Gulf Stream but not a complete halt,"
he said. "The cooling caused by a weakened Gulf Stream would not actually
counteract the general warming caused by increased greenhouse gases. Northern
Europe is more likely to get warmer than colder."
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- Some critics of the film have suggested that its exaggerated
storyline - showing tornadoes ripping through Los Angeles and snowstorms
lashing Delhi - could dangerously mislead the public and cause them to
become compacent about the real but not so dramatic dangers of climate
change. "Will the public become inured? I think we're quite a long
way from that. We're still in a situation where we need to engage the public
more fully in the global warming debate," Sir David said.
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- "I think we're beginning to do that quite successfully
in the UK but if we look globally there is a big job yet to be done so
I do therefore welcome this movie despite the problems," he said.
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- Geoff Jenkins, a senior climate researcher at the Met
Office's Hadley Centre, said the Gulf Stream was switched off completely
about 11,000 years ago when freshwater from melting ice sheets flooded
into the Atlantic. "Those ice sheets don't exist in Canada any more
and so that same sort of thing could not happen again," he said. "Nobody
thinks the world is going to cool in terms of precipitating a new ice age
and the sort of thing that's in the movie. At the very worst we will see
the world warming apart from a bit of the North Atlantic."
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- Sir David accepted the film's limitations: "The
film does unrealistically concertina into a few weeks a scenario that if
it did occur would take decades or even a century." But he added:
"It's important that we all take cognisance of what scientists are
saying about global warming and by that I mean all political players around
the world and this clearly must include the American administration."
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- CLIMATE OF FEAR OR FICTION?
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- "The movie exaggerates how quickly climate change
can happen. And higher carbon dioxide will not push us into another ice
age." - Daniel Shrag, Harvard University oceanographer
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- "People already have concerns about risks posed
by climate change. The film is likely to reinforce these concerns while
providing a real opportunity to stimulate a serious public debate."
- Professor Nick Pidgeon, environmental risk analyst, University of East
Anglia
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- "The... scenario the film portrays is scientifically
ludicrous - not only in the speed of response but also by linking sea-level
rise to extreme cold." - Professor Phil Jones, climatologist at the
Climate Research Unit
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- "The The Day After Tomorrow takes its starting point
from science, but ends up telling a dramatic and entertaining science-fiction
story." - Professor Mike Hulme, scientist at the Tyndall Centre for
Climate Change
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- © 2004 Independent Digital (UK) Ltd http://news.independent.co.uk/world/science_technology/story.jsp?story=520723
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