- WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The
multibillion-dollar U.S. ballistic missile shield due to start operating
by Sept. 30 appears incapable of shooting down any incoming warheads, an
independent scientists' group said on Thursday.
-
- A technical analysis found "no basis for believing
the system will have any capability to defend against a real attack,"
the Union of Concerned Scientists said in a 76-page report titled Technical
Realities.
-
- The Pentagon's Missile Defense Agency rejected the report.
-
- "It will provide a defense against incoming missiles
for the first time in this country's history," said Richard Lehner,
an agency spokesman.
-
- The Pentagon's initial deployment involves 10 interceptor
missiles in silos in Alaska and California. It is designed to protect all
50 U.S. states against a limited strike from North Korean missiles that
could be tipped with nuclear, chemical or biological warheads.
-
- Boeing Co. is assembling the shield, which would use
the interceptors to launch "kill vehicles" meant to pulverize
targets in the mid-course of their flight paths, outside the Earth's atmosphere.
Using infrared sensors, the vehicles would search the chill of space for
the warheads. So far, the interceptors have scored hits five times in eight
highly controlled tests.
-
- The Missile Defense Agency "appears to be picking
numbers out of thin air," the report said of past Pentagon assertions
of a high probability of shooting down targets.
-
- "There is no data to justify such an assumption,"
added the scientists' group, which is based in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Its findings dovetailed with an audit last month by Congress's General
Accounting Office that said the system's effectiveness would be "largely
unproven" when the initial capability goes on alert.
-
- DANGEROUS POLICY IMPLICATIONS
-
- Even unsophisticated countermeasures that could be mounted
by countries such as North Korea remain an unsolved problem for midcourse
defenses against long-range missiles, the scientists' report said.
-
- Balloon decoys could be given the same infrared signature
as a warhead by painting their surfaces, it said. The project could also
be confused by sealing the warhead in a large balloon so the kill vehicle
could not determine its exact location or tethering several balloons to
it.
-
- Overstating the defensive capabilities of the ground-based
defense is dangerous, the group said.
-
- "If the president is told that the system could
reliably defend against a North Korean ballistic missile attack, he might
be willing to accept more risks when making policy and military decisions,"
the report said.
-
- "All indications are that it would not work,"
added Lisbeth Gronlund, a physicist who is a co-author of the report and
co-director of the group's global security program.
-
- "And the administration's statements that it will
be highly effective are irresponsible nonsense," she added in a telephone
interview.
-
- Overall, the Pentagon estimates it will need $53 billion
in the next five years to develop, field and upgrade a multilayered shield
also involving systems based at sea, aboard modified Boeing 747 aircraft
and in space.
-
-
- Copyright © 2004 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved.
Republication or redistribution of Reuters content is expressly prohibited
without the prior written consent of Reuters. Reuters shall not be liable
for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance
thereon.
|
