- The Black Death, which killed 23m people in the middle
ages, could be lying dormant and could strike again, say researchers.
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- Their claim is based on the theory that the pandemic
was triggered not by bubonic plague but by another virus.
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- The theory is outlined in a new book by Professor Christopher
Duncan and Dr Susan Scott of Liverpool University.
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- "We believe this virus is merely lying in wait,
ready to strike again," said Professor Duncan.
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- The Black Death is thought to have caused the deaths
of up to 200m people worldwide over the past 1,500 years.
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- In the 14th century alone, around 23m people are thought
to have died after the disease ravaged much of Asia and Europe.
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- Globally the disease still affects between 1,000 to 3,000
people a year. However, if caught early it can be cured with antibiotics.
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- Historical records
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- As part of their research, Professor Duncan and Dr Scott
studied original parish records, wills and diaries to create a profile
of the killer disease.
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- They examined eyewitness accounts as well as accounts
by several famous figures who escaped infection, including Henry VIII and
William Shakespeare.
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- This research led them to conclude that the deaths were
not caused by bubonic plague but by some other viral disease.
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- Professor Duncan said the virus may still exist somewhere
in the world.
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- "Although the last known outbreak of plague occurred
over three centuries ago, we believe the virus is merely lying in wait,
ready to strike again."
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- He also suggested that the disease if it does emerge
again could turn into a major killer.
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- "Globalisation and our increasingly mobile population
make rapid transmission of infectious disease unavoidable - as demonstrated
in the recent outbreaks of Sars.
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- "These factors, combined with the increased threat
of bio-terrorism, may allow for the re-emergence of the virus as an even
more ruthless killer."
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- However, Dr Michael Smith, a leading expert on plague,
played down the claims.
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- "For many years, there have been queries about whether
the bubonic plague was responsible for the Black Death," he told BBC
News Online.
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- "However, much of the clinical descriptions certainly
fit bubonic plague. A paper, published by French researchers recently,
based on DNA tests on the remains of two people who died during this time
also found evidence that it was bubonic plague.
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- "The body of evidence suggests that it was bubonic
plague."
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- © BBC MMIV http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/3735943.stm
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