- LOS ANGELES (Reuters) --
Concern among evangelical Christians over the course of the war in Iraq
is opening a crack in their strong bond with President Bush and the Republican
Party, political analysts who track this powerful voting group said.
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- But they caution there are doubts over whether John Kerry
can lure evangelicals into the Democratic camp in November's presidential
election.
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- "I know there are a lot of evangelicals who are
disillusioned with the war and worried about a lot of things, the Woodward
book, the Clarke book ... (and) how we got into this thing," said
Richard Mouw, president of Fuller Theological Seminary in Pasadena, Calif.,
referring to recent books on the al Qaeda threat and the Iraqi war and
occupation.
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- Compounding that is the growing scandal about prisoner
abuses by U.S. troops in Iraq.
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- Evangelical Christians are still expected to vote overwhelmingly
for Bush, but the erosion of support could reduce their turnout on election
day, a potentially ominous development for the incumbent president.
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- If the race is very close in several states, experts
said poor turnout by this core voting group could conceivably cost Bush
the election, especially if a cliffhanger like the Florida contest in 2000
were to reoccur.
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- Some academics estimate evangelical Christians represent
25 to 30 percent of the 105 million people who voted in the last presidential
election. Evangelical Christians are concentrated in Southern and Midwestern
states considered by many political analysts to be the battleground of
the 2004 campaign.
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- Traditionally evangelicals have been politically conservative
and voted overwhelmingly Republican although some Democratic candidates
have been able to win a substantial slice of their vote, most notably Jimmy
Carter, a self-described born-again Christian, in 1976.
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- "I don't see anything but trouble over there (in
Iraq). People could increasingly become disenchanted with George Bush,
evangelicals too," said Derek Davis, director of the J.M. Dawson Institute
of Church-State Studies at Baylor University.
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- "I think the war could have an effect on the evangelical
vote," he said but estimated it would cost Bush no more than 10 to
15 percent of support among evangelicals at the most. He noted that in
the 2000 election Bush received about 80 to 85 percent of the evangelical
vote.
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- Evangelical Christians consider President Bush, a man
who frequently refers to his Christian beliefs, as one of their own. Kerry
in contrast is a Roman Catholic who rarely talks in the public about his
faith and is in the midst of controversy as conservative Catholic bishops
talk about withholding communion from him because of his views on abortion
rights.
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- "John Kerry ... likes to use the mantra that JFK
used about observing the principle of separation of church and state,"
Davis said.
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- SEPARATION PRINCIPLE
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- Kennedy, the first Roman Catholic to be elected president
of the United States, said in a widely quoted 1960 speech aimed at quelling
Protestant fears about his religion: "I do not speak for my church
on public matters -- and the church does not speak for me."
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- But Kerry's disinclination to speak in public about his
religious beliefs is not sitting well with some evangelicals.
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- "In distancing himself from the Catholic church
he distances himself from religion and that doesn't resonate well with
evangelical Christians," said Corwin Smidt, executive director of
the Henry Institute for the Study of Christianity and Politics in Grand
Rapids, Michigan.
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- Smidt noted that evangelicals would be influenced by
several issues including the war in Iraq, gay marriage and the economy
but their "comfort level" with candidates would also be very
important.
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- "They (evangelicals) don't just vote on the issues
but for candidates they feel comfortable with," Smidt said, noting
currently such considerations favored Bush.
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- "There is a religious quality to American public
life and really distinguishes it from public life in other western democracies,"
he added.
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- Davis said many evangelical Christians were concerned
that the nation was in a "moral vacuum" and wanted to "renew
the Christian roots of our nationhood." "Many Christians feel
we are in trouble morally and if we don't do something radical our Christian
heritage is going to be lost to the secularist, the atheist, etc. etc.,"
he said.
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- "The solution to most evangelical Christians is
a Republican vote," Davis added.
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