- One of the few good things to be said about the British
empire is that we got rid of it in style.
-
- Handing a country back to its rightful owners always
turned into a great occasion. The Queen, or one of her closest relatives,
would be there, along with the British top brass in their finest regalia.
The new rulers, too, would be decked out in colourful national dress.
-
- When the historic moment came, the union flag would be
lowered for the last time, and the flag of another newly-independent state
would rise to the top of the pole.
-
- Brass bands would play the two national anthems, and
there would be smiles all round - even though it was often obvious that,
the following day, the incoming regime would begin to dismantle many of
the institutions the British had set up in order to show the natives how
to run a country "properly".
-
- So, too, it might have been in Iraq: a grand ceremony
in Baghdad, attended by George Bush, Tony Blair, and others, complete with
grateful speeches from the newly-elected Iraqi leaders, cheering crowds,
and fireworks rather than bombs.
-
- What we got, however, was very different. At a rather
subdued gathering, Paul Bremer, the US administrator, held up a large legal
document - the title deeds to Iraq, as it were - and passed it to a man
in a suit with his back to the TV cameras. The half-dozen or so officials
in the room clapped politely for around three seconds.
-
- It was all over - and Mr Bremer had hastily left the
country - before anyone outside the heavily-guarded Green Zone even knew
the handover was happening.
-
- Disappointing as this may have been in terms of pomp
and circumstance, it could be considered the first smart move the US has
made since arriving in Iraq. Officials have finally learned - at the last
possible moment - that a bit of guile goes much further than brute force
in the Middle East.
-
- Remember the explosions that greeted the appointment,
a few weeks ago, of Iraq's current temporary president? Well, this time,
by unexpectedly bringing the handover forward a couple of days, the US
may have sabotaged whatever plans the insurgents had made to mark to the
occasion.
-
- The big question, though, is whether the handover will
make things better or worse. The US and British hope it will take some
steam out of the insurgency because the troops in Iraq are, technically,
no longer an occupation force.
-
- Legal niceties, however, are unlikely to cut much ice
with the insurgents - so long as foreign troops remain, they will provide
both a sitting target and a rallying point for discontent.
-
- It can also be argued that the US-led occupation, and
popular opposition to it, has helped to unite Iraqis and prevent the numerous
ethnic, religious and political elements from fighting amongst themselves.
That could now begin to change, with rival factions seeking to test their
strength in relation to each other.
-
- Officially, the new government's task is to prepare for
elections next January, and then dissolve itself. However, it could easily
be deflected from that path, and there are already hints that the prime
minister, Ayad Allawi, is thinking of declaring a state of emergency.
-
- In the Middle East, states of emergency, once declared,
can last for decades, providing a ready excuse for authoritarian rule.
-
- Over recent weeks, Washington has explained away much
of the violence in Iraq as predictable during "the run-up" to
the handover of power - implying that it would die down once the transfer
was completed. We shall soon see how much truth there is in that.
-
- At first, trouble in Iraq was blamed on "pockets"
of resistance from Ba'athists in the Sunni triangle. We were assured it
would subside when Saddam Hussein was captured, but it didn't.
-
- After that, Moqtada al-Sadr, the radical Shia cleric,
became the villain behind the show, only to be eclipsed by the al-Qaida
leader, Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi (rumours of whose capture were denied by US
officials earlier today).
-
- Blaming the violence on a few key individuals is a way
of raising hopes it will end - but it fundamentally underestimates the
seriousness of the problem.
-
- "It is the insurgents in Iraq who will determine
how much genuine authority the newly sovereign government will have,"
an Associated Press correspondent noted this morning, adding, ominously,
that it was also the insurgents' activity that had forced the pace of Mr
Bremer's premature handover of power to the Iraqis.
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- Guardian Unlimited © Guardian Newspapers Limited
2004 http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,1249241,00.html
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