- The United States is losing interest in the Middle East
peace process with the result that the prospects of creating a viable Palestinian
state are gradually disappearing, a new British government assessment of
the Palestinian crisis warns.
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- The analysis, written by the Department for International
Development (DfID) in consultation with the Foreign Office, reveals the
alarm within Whitehall at the disengagement of the Bush administration
from events in Israel and the occupied territories.
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- It warns: "The role of the USA, the country with
the most leverage over Israel, is key. Frustration with aspects of the
Palestinian leadership, preoccupations in Iraq, presidential elections
and security concerns for US citizens may risk USA disengagement at the
highest levels from the peace process when it is most likely to start collapsing."
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- The analysis, signed off by the development secretary,
Hilary Benn, concludes: "There is now a medium to high probability
that there will be a lack of effective international engagement on the
Middle East peace process due to other international priorities in 2004."
It says that "the EU, by contrast, remains focused, but has limited
influence".
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- Tony Blair has insisted that the peace process, along
with Iraq, is a priority of his foreign policy and a key to winning support
in the Arab world. Before the Iraq war, he told ministers and officials
he was using his influence with Washington to convince the Bush administration
to do more about the Middle East conflict.
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- But since the war, US action has been limited. Mr Blair
tried to put the best gloss on the planned withdrawal from Gaza negotiated
by Mr Bush and the Israeli prime minister, Ariel Sharon, earlier this year.
He endorsed the plan, despite Palestinian condemnation of it, and has said
the road map peace plan is not dead.
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- The analysis says unilateral Israeli withdrawal from
Gaza and parts of the West Bank not in line with the road map may lead
to a dramatic increase in violence and severe poverty.
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- "Without action soon, there is a real danger that
facts on the ground [Israeli settlement expansion and construction of a
separation barrier] may make a viable two-state solution almost impossible."
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- It reports a substantial risk that the Palestinian Authority
will collapse, but says the most likely scenario is "continuing failure
to make progress towards a political solution" leading to the "continued
construction of the separation barrier on Palestinian land, and gradual
disappearance of the prospects for creating a viable Palestinian state".
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- The report suggests a negotiated withdrawal by Israel
could lead back to the road map and two-state solution.
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- But it adds: "The Palestinian state which would
be left if Israel controlled all access and/or permanently withdrew behind
the current and planned route of the separation barrier would not be viable
or stable."
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- It might instead prompt a majority of Palestinians to
drop support for a two-state solution, and "instead back a single
bi-national state from the Jordan to the Mediterranean. Palestinians would
outnumber Jewish Israelis in such a state within the next decade."
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- The DfID claims this will be "the logical consequence
of indefinite occupation by Israel".
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- The assessment warns huge rises in aid have not prevented
an increase in poverty and will not reduce it much without progress on
the peace process.
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- The assessment asserts that Britain believes Israel could
do much to ease the humanitarian and economic situation of the Palestinian
people without threatening Israeli security.
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- The assessment includes criticism of the Palestinian
Authority's failure to make the necessary progress on security reform,
and accuses some Palestinians of possessing a personal agenda.
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- It also criticises the Palestinian Authority, saying
"major constraints include a shortage of clear political direction,
limited popular support, management deficiencies, inadequate staffing in
key areas, corruption, and accusations of misuse of funds and sponsoring
terrorism".
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- Guardian Unlimited © Guardian Newspapers Limited
2004 http://www.guardian.co.uk/israel/Story/0,2763,1265655,00.html
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