- The US will mount a concerted attempt to overturn the
regime in Iran if President Bush is elected for a second term.
-
- It would work strenuously to foment a revolt against
the ruling theocracy by Iran's "hugely dissatisfied" population,
a senior official has told The Times.
-
- The United States would not use military force, as in
Iraq, but "if Bush is re-elected there will be much more intervention
in the internal affairs of Iran", declared the official, who is determined
that there should be no let-up in the Administration's War on Terror.
-
- To what extent the official, known to be hawkish, was
speaking for the White House was unclear, but his remarks are nevertheless
likely to cause alarm in Europe. He hinted at a possible military strike
against Iran's nuclear facilities, saying that there was a window of opportunity
for destroying Iran's main nuclear complex at Bushehr next year that would
close if Russia delivered crucial fuel rods. To destroy Bushehr after the
delivery would cause huge environmental damage. The rods would allow the
Iranians to obtain enough plutonium for many dozens of nuclear weapons,
he said.
-
- The official also stepped up the pressure on Britain,
France and Germany to take a tougher line on Iran, voicing the disdain
within the Administration for the Europeans' attempt to defuse the Iranian
nuclear threat through diplomacy. Britain had joined the effort in order
to demonstrate its European credentials, he said. France and Germany had
teamed up with Britain because they realised that the pair of them could
no longer run Europe alone.
-
- Washington believes that the trio has been embarrassed
by Iran's failure to hold good to a deal it struck with the Iranian regime
last October. Iran pledged to give UN inspectors the freedom to make snap
inspections, and also to suspend uranium enrichment.
-
- Since then, some members of the Administration have begun
referring in private to Britain, France and Germany as "the Tehran
three", and to Jack Straw, the Foreign Secretary, as "Jack of
Tehran".
-
- If the Europeans fail to get Iran to back down at a meeting
this month, the US wants to close the gap between the rival diplomatic
approaches and refer Iran to the United Nations Security Council.
-
- Russia is due to deliver the first shipment of nuclear
fuel to Iran early next year for insertion into the reactor at Bushehr
before the end of the year.
-
- Despite that, the official believes that "it is
not impossible to get Russia to see it our way" and back a UN resolution
that would "raise the international saliency" of Iran's nuclear
ambitions. He is convinced that Iran is afraid of a "conveyor belt"
that would lead inexorably to sanctions and even military action.
-
- Iran is one of the three members of President Bush's
"axis of evil" and has further angered Washington with its covert
interference in Iraq since the end of last year's war to topple Saddam
Hussein.
-
- The official dismissed suggestions that Washington would
hesitate to seek regime change in Iran, given the problems it has encountered
in Iraq, and Colin Powell, a restraining influence as Secretary of State,
will not be serving a second term. It is less clear how the Administration
could foment a revolution without uniting Iranians against "the Great
Satan".
-
- The official claimed that more than its dislike of the
mullahs, the Iranian population was dissatisfied with an economy that did
not have jobs for the young: 60 per cent of the population is under 24.
-
- There is little organised opposition inside the country
and financing it directly or through front organisations would probably
play into the hands of the mullahs anyway.
-
- At present the US relies on about a dozen Farsi satellite
television and radio channels in the San Fernando Valley, California. They
beam pirate broadcasts to the estimated seven million Iranians with illegal
satellite dishes.
-
- Last year Washington also set up a Persian-language Voice
of America programme that is broacast into Iraq. The internet offers another
channel for US propaganda, but efforts to impose stiff sanctions or fund
anti-Government exile groups have been frustrated by a Republican split
over the relative merits of confrontation or engagement.
-
- Despite the US threats one of Iran's top ruling clerics
vowed yesterday that the Islamic republic would continue to pursue its
controversial nuclear programme. "We are resolute. It is worth achieving
it at any cost," Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, head of the Guardians Council,
said.
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- Copyright 2004 Times Newspapers Ltd. http://www.timesonline.co.uk
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