- Note - There is a lot of information to strongly suggest
the 1,000 US dead mark came and went long ago. -ed
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- WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The
United States faces a painful moment probably next month when its military
deaths in Iraq are expected to surpass 1,000. It will also be a crucial
moment for President Bush, who faces a presidential campaign in which Iraq
is a central issue.
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- "Unfortunately that day will likely arrive next
month and it will be a fulcrum event that may change many people's views
of what we're doing in Iraq," said David Birdsell, a political scientist
at Baruch College in New York City.
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- "It's a gripping number, a large number, a tragic
number and it will be a pivot to revisit Bush's reasons for fighting the
war and his premature declaration last year that the mission had been accomplished,"
he said.
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- According to the most up-to-date Pentagon figure, which
usually lags events on the ground by a few days, the United States has
lost 931 military personnel in Iraq since the war began in March 2003.
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- In July, the first month after an Iraqi interim authority
took office, U.S. deaths totaled 55, compared to 42 the previous month.
So far this month, they are running at a similar or possibly slightly higher
rate.
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- Compared to past wars, this is a relatively low figure.
During the Vietnam War, the U.S. lost 1,363 soldiers in the month of March
1968 alone and more than 58,000 for the entire war. But it is still a higher
rate than for any military conflict the United States has fought since
Vietnam.
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- "The Iraqi body count hurts the president. Already
less than half of respondents in my polling say the war was worth fighting
and the 1,000 casualty will be a milestone that will be page one news and
put a lot more focus on it," said pollster John Zogby.
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- Republican political adviser Keith Appell agreed that
the 1,000th death would be an "awful milestone" but argued that
it would not change anything in the presidential campaign.
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- "The Republicans will be on defense for a couple
of days but I don't expect the Bush campaign to back off anything it is
saying. He needs to stand resolute, to promise to stay the course until
victory and to argue that we have no choice but to fight this war,"
he said.
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- KERRY MAY KEEP QUIET
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- Conversely, Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry's
best strategy may be to confine himself to expressions of sorrow and comfort
for the families of the fallen.
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- "Kerry may just keep quiet. The media will probably
do the job for him," said University of Michigan political scientist
Vincent Hutchings.
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- The moment will likely arrive around the time when the
candidates are preparing for their crucial debates, tentatively scheduled
for late September and early October.
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- From the perspective of Bush's campaign, University of
Georgia political scientist Brad Lockerbie said, better the number is reached
in September than in October.
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- Now, with U.S. forces engaged in a bloody battle against
radical Shi'ite cleric Moktada al-Sadr in the holy city of Najaf in which
more than Iraqi 360 militiamen and five U.S. servicemen have been killed,
it is back in the headlines.
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- Polls indicate that the domestic economy and Iraq are
the two top issues in the Nov. 2 election and Bush seems vulnerable on
both. But Lockerbie said opinions on Iraq had largely crystallized.
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- "This will be a big deal for a short period of time
but those who have decided Bush made the right decision in going to war
won't change their minds," he said.
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- © Reuters 2004. All Rights Reserved.
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