- Despite criticism that it should have better anticipated
Hurricane Charley's rapid intensification and quick turn, the National
Hurricane Center's forecast wasn't that far off, a preliminary post-mortem
shows.
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- When the storm was 24 hours away, the center's projected
track was 45 miles from where it landed, on the barrier islands between
Cape Coral and Punta Gorda, according to figures released on Wednesday.
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- That almost cut in half the center's 10-year average
error of 87 miles when a storm is a day away, hurricane center Director
Max Mayfield said.
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- "That's pretty doggone good," he said. "It's
a little odd to me that we had a good forecast here, but there was some
question why it wasn't better."
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- AFTER CATEGORY 4 CHARLEY SLAMMED INTO THE PORT CHARLOTTE
AREA ON FRIDAY, CHARLOTTE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER WAYNE SALLADE COMPLAINED
THE HURRICANE CENTER SHOULD HAVE BETTER WARNED OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
OTHER GULF COAST OFFICIALS AND RADIO TALK SHOWS SOON QUESTIONED WHY THE
CENTER DIDN'T SEE THE SO-CALLED LAST-MINUTE TURN.
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- THE HURRICANE CENTER OFFICE, IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY, HAD
CHARLEY AIMING FOR LANDFALL NEAR TAMPA AT 11 A.M. ON THURSDAY, ABOUT 110
MILES TO THE NORTH OF PUNTA GORDA. BUT BY 2 P.M. THAT DAY, THE TRACK WAS
ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH, ONLY 45 MILES FROM GROUND ZERO, MAYFIELD SAID.
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- WHEN CHARLEY WAS 12 HOURS OUT, THE FORECAST TRACK WAS
35 MILES OFF TARGET, WHILE THE AVERAGE ERROR IS 48 MILES FOR THAT PERIOD.
AT 11 A.M. FRIDAY, WHEN CHARLEY WAS ABOUT FIVE HOURS OUT, THE PROJECTED
TRACK WAS DEAD ON SANIBEL ISLAND AND PUNTA GORDA.
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- The problem, hurricane officials said, is that too many
residents focus on the forecast track, which goes to a specific point,
when hurricanes can cause great destruction more than 100 miles on either
side of the track.
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- Charley's destruction emphasized that residents should
be prepared whenever a hurricane warning has been posted for their area,
officials said.
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- "We always emphasize that a hurricane is not a point,"
hurricane specialist Lixion Avila said. "You have to assume the hurricane
will hit you if you're under a warning."
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- Tony Carper, Broward County's emergency management director,
said all emergency managers know forecasts can be in error.
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- "We certainly experienced that with Hurricane Irene,"
he said, referring to the storm that swamped South Florida in October 1999,
after it was initially forecast to go up the Gulf Coast.
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- In Charley, "A lot of people were focused on the
track into Tampa rather than thinking that possibly we could get this,
too," Carper said. "And then the bad thing occurred."
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- Mayfield said that because the forecast track, or "that
skinny black line," can be misleading, he is considering doing away
with it and just showing the full area where a hurricane could meander.
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- AS FOR THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION, MAYFIELD ADMITTED THAT
THE CENTER'S FORECAST WAS LACKING. FIVE HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL, THE FORECAST
CALLED FOR MAXIMUM WINDS OF 110 MPH, OR CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH. CHARLEY SUDDENLY
SPUN INTO A 145-MPH CATEGORY 4 BUZZ SAW.
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- Mayfield said the center has warned for years that its
intensity forecasts need improvement.
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- "It would have been a disaster if it had been a
Category 3," he said. "The fact that it was a Category 4 makes
it an even greater disaster."
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- The center plans an in-depth analysis of Hurricane Charley
in the coming weeks, he said.
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- http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/florida/sfl
-smax19aug19,0,2127284.story?c\ oll=sfla-news-florida
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